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DRIVEN BY STRONGER-than-expected demand and moderate supply, CBRE has raised its forecast for hotel performance again this year, resulting in increased occupancy. CBRE revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6 percent year-over-year and an increase of $0.43 rise from the previous forecast. This positive revision is based on a 65-basis-point increase in expected occupancy compared to the previous forecast issued in February, CBRE said in a statement. Furthermore, the ADR is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2023, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.2 percent. According to CBRE Hotels Research, this is primarily due to slightly lower inflation expectations and a higher proportion of group travel and shoulder-period demand, which typically have lower rates. CBRE's baseline scenario forecast envisages an average GDP growth of 0.8 percent and average inflation of 4.6 percent in 2023. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, changes in the economic outlook will directly impact the performance of the lodging industry, CBRE noted. "We are already starting to see signs that the easing of travel restrictions in Japan and China, combined with continued improvements in group and independent business demand, are bolstering demand heading into the heavy summer travel season," said Rachael Rothman, head of hotel research & data analytics at CBRE.

U.S. HOTEL DEMAND declined by 0.5 percent year over year in the third quarter of 2023, according to CBRE. Simultaneously, there was a matching 0.5 percent increase in supply. The combined effect of these factors led to a 1 percent decrease in occupancy. ADR increased by 0.6 percent during the quarter, marking the slowest improvement since the pandemic recovery began 10 quarters ago, the CBRE data revealed. RevPAR decreased by 0.3 percent, as a modest decline in occupancy was partially offset by the rise in ADR. Despite sustained consumer spending, hotel demand and pricing power in Q3 were hampered by competition from alternative lodging sources like short-term rentals and cruise lines, along with an uptick in outbound international travel. According to the report, hotel wage growth in September outpaced the national average of 4.3 percent, registering at 4.7 percent, but declined from 7 percent at year-end 2022. Average hourly hotel wages fell nearly $10 below the national average, suggesting ongoing pressure for wage increases.

CBRE HOTELS RECENTLY reduced U.S. hotel forecast as lodging demand dips amid soft leisure travel and slower corporate profit growth. The upcoming election in November and other economic factors led to the revisions. The research group now projects a 1.2 percent RevPAR increase for 2024, down from 2 percent in May. However, it expects a 2 percent RevPAR growth in the second half of 2024, up from 0.5 percent in the first half, driven by international tourism and election events. Lodging industry performance is closely linked to economic strength, with GDP growth generally correlating with RevPAR growth, CBRE said in a statement. The company forecasts 2.3 percent GDP growth and 3.2 percent average inflation for 2024. "We expect low single-digit RevPAR growth over the near-term as election-related events, growth in inbound international travel and an anticipated lower interest rate environment should support hotel demand," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Challenges including weakening consumer spending and increased competition from short-term rentals, cruise lines and other lodging alternatives pose downside risks."

U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

WHEN IT COMES to growing hotel revenue, size does not matter. Economy hotels and micro-inventory properties are experiencing one of the biggest booms in recent years, thanks partly to a massive resurgence in small group travel, changing economic trends, and the staying power of global "return to travel". CBRE noted economy and midscale hotels recovered to 2019 performance levels by 2021, and properties with fewer rooms may benefit from lower operating costs when compared to their big-box brethren-though they also tend to have fewer resources with which to hire revenue professionals. Revenue managers are driving the charge for better operating returns. Many are taking the lessons they learned from their success at larger hotels and applying these truths to the industry's smaller properties. These revenue managers leverage new technology and strategies, options that small hotels with smaller, cross-functional staff haven't fully embraced. However, competition among economy hotels and properties tends to be fierce, requiring new action, especially with recent economic pressures and a downward 2023 RevPAR forecast of 0.2 percent in recent data shared by Tourism Economics . Modern revenue management practices and technology can provide these hotels with many benefits and significant competitive advantages. Small hotels need to avoid the erratic rate shifts of the past and capitalize on new trends as they emerge. By embracing strong revenue management systems and discipline in these properties, operators can realize greater control over a typically inconsistent space. Room Enough for Revenue The most common misconception about revenue management's place in hospitality is that it is the domain of large or full-service hotels. This is simply not the case today. No two hotels are the same, in practice, with key differences always existing between the layout of a property, its location, third-party partnerships, and so on. Every hotel has different r

U.S. REVPAR IS expected to grow steadily in 2025, supported by urban markets benefiting from improved group and business travel and inbound international recovery, according to a recent CBRE study. The firm expects a 2 percent increase, with occupancy up 23 bps and ADR rising 1.6 percent. RevPAR in 2025 is projected to be 16.6 percent above 2019 levels, reflecting the lodging industry's continued recovery, CBRE said in a statement. "The U.S. hotel market is poised for steady growth in 2025, primarily led by continued outperformance of the urban segment, which should experience RevPAR growth of 2.8 percent this year," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "The sector's resilience and the sustained demand for higher-priced hotels bode well for the upcoming year."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter and continue into 2025 despite subdued summer demand and a sluggish third quarter, according to CBRE. RevPAR growth for 2024 is now projected at 0.5 percent, down from 1.2 percent in August, due to a 40 bps drop in expected occupancy. Occupancy is forecast to decline 30 bps year-over-year while ADR is projected to rise 0.7 percent, 40 bps below earlier forecasts, the report said. RevPAR growth is expected to rebound in the four quarter of 2024, driven by rate cuts, easing inflation and stock market gains. "U.S. hotels performance was softer-than-expected during the summer months, partly due to Americans traveling overseas in record numbers," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "At the same time, the slow recovery in inbound international travel has created an imbalance in U.S. leisure demand. Despite this, continued improvements in group and business travel served as relative bright spots in the third quarter."

ANNUAL CHANGES IN U.S. hotel utility costs and in the Consumer Price Index, or inflation, have historically proven to be strongly correlated. As of August 2022, CBRE is forecasting CPI growth to be 7.7 percent in 2022, followed by another 3.6 percent in 2023. Since inflation has averaged just 2.2 percent since 2000, these inflation projections have hoteliers concerned about operating costs. Given that rising energy costs are a significant driver of the current rise in CPI, hotel managers are especially worried about utility department expenses. Over the past 50 years, utility department expenses have averaged between 3 and 4 percent of total revenue, indicating that hotel managers have been successfully controlling energy costs in the face of fluctuating business volumes. This is particularly commendable given the highly fixed nature of utility expenses. To provide some context to the current challenging environment, we studied recent trends in hotel utility department expenses. The data come from a sample of more than 2,800 U.S. hotels that reported utility department expenses each year from 2015 through 2021 for CBRE's annual "Trends in the Hotel Industry" survey. In 2021 the properties in the sample averaged 209 rooms in size, with an annual occupancy rate of 54.2 percent and an average daily rate of $152.70.

IN 2020 AND 2021, U.S. hotel operators did a praiseworthy job controlling expenses to offset the significant declines in revenue. Based on data from CBRE's Trends in the Hotel Industry survey of annual operating statements from thousands of properties across the U.S., not only have we seen a reduction in the variable expenses associated with the drop in business volume (i.e., occupied rooms, restaurant covers), but also in cuts among what were previously thought to be fixed expenses. During this time period, insurance costs were out of operators' control. Per the 11th edition of the Uniform System of Accounts for the Lodging Industry (USALI), insurance expenditures are classified as a non-operating expense and reported on the summary operating statement below gross operating profits. The insurance expense line item includes property insurance for building, contents, and business income from all perils, as well as general liability and excess liability insurance. The insurance expense category does not include workers compensation insurance, which is allocated to the operated and undistributed departments. To analyze recent changes in hotel insurance costs, and the factors that influence those changes, we examined the operating statements of 3,156 U.S. hotels that reported insurance expenses for the Trends survey each year from 2015 through 2021 (estimated). The following paragraphs summarize the findings from our analysis.