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THE BUSINESS TRAVEL resurgence in the U.S. significantly impacted the economy in 2022, with every $1 spent returning $1.15 to the U.S. GDP, according to the Global Business Travel Association. The industry also contributed $484 billion to the U.S. GDP in the same year and the association forecasts a further increase in business travel spending for 2024. The study, titled "GBTA U.S. Economic Impact Study: Business Travel's Impact on Jobs and the U.S. Economy," revealed that for every 1 percent growth in business travel, the U.S. economy gains nearly 60,000 jobs, $2.9 billion in wages, $1.2 billion in tax revenue and $4.8 billion in new GDP. "The data shows that business travel is a substantial contributor to the health of the U.S. economy, and therefore also a key driver for the global economy," said Suzanne Neufang, GBTA's CEO. "Business travel supports millions of jobs and delivers billions in tax revenue, which is why it is important for policymakers to consider the impact on the industry when devising economic policies - and for sustainable solutions to be prioritized, funded and developed to help us abate travel's hardest-to-abate sectors."

CORPORATE TRAVEL SPEND by U.S. companies is expected to grow 8 to 12 percent, reaching or exceeding pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024, according to a recent Deloitte study. Around 73 percent of travel managers expect their companies' travel spend to increase in 2024, while 58 percent expect further increases in 2025, with projected gains averaging 14-15 percent each year. Deloitte's 2024 corporate travel report, "Upward Climb with Uphill Struggles," found that live events are a top growth driver, with 6 in 10 business travelers expecting to attend a conference, trade show or exhibition this year. "Business travel has been slower to come back following pandemic slowdowns, but this could be the year that it accelerates to new heights," said Eileen Crowley, Deloitte's vice chair and U.S. transportation, hospitality and services attest leader. "More employees are traveling for business-and enjoying it-underscoring that in-person connection often remains a critical component. As companies see a renewed benefit in the opportunities business travel provides, business leaders can capitalize on the enthusiasm and prioritize travel experiences that are valuable to both the organization and employee."

AS MANY AS 84 percent of business travelers in the U.S. expect to take at least one trip to attend conferences, conventions or trade shows in the next six months, according to a survey from the U.S. Travel Association. They also expect to resume traveling at a slightly slower pace, about 1.6 trips per month, compared to 1.7 monthly trips pre-pandemic. The Quarterly Business Travel Tracker by J.D. Power said that less than one in 10 U.S. business travelers are uncertain if they would travel in the next six months. Meetings and events are not occurring and corporate policies restricting business travel are listed as reasons behind this. USTA forecasts that business travel spending was still down 60 percent from pre-pandemic levels in 2021. However, the latest data shows a clear shift in American business travelers' desire to return to in-person meetings.

OCCUPANCY FOR U.S. hotels is now expected to finish the year a little down from the previous forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. However, projections for ADR and RevPAR recovery remain on track in the data firms' final forecast of the year. RevPAR is still expected to fully recover this year on a nominal basis, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the new forecast. The updated forecast lowered occupancy by less than a percentage point for 2022, standing now at 62.7 percent compared to the previously forecasted 63 percent released in August. "As expected, group business travel has been much more aligned with pre-pandemic patterns, specifically in October when group demand hit a pandemic-era high," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Leisure travel has maintained its strength since our previous forecast update, and we expect these strong demand trends in both group and leisure to continue through the fourth quarter. Bottom-line performance has also persisted, with our most recent data showing strong profit margins due to lower employment levels and reduced services. The challenges around labor continue to be a concern, as high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor are pushing labor costs on a per-available-room basis above 2019 levels. We continue to take inflation and the likely recession into consideration, but the hotel industry has continued to show resilience through these tougher times, thus the steadiness of our updated forecast."

DRIVEN BY STRONGER-than-expected demand and moderate supply, CBRE has raised its forecast for hotel performance again this year, resulting in increased occupancy. CBRE revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6 percent year-over-year and an increase of $0.43 rise from the previous forecast. This positive revision is based on a 65-basis-point increase in expected occupancy compared to the previous forecast issued in February, CBRE said in a statement. Furthermore, the ADR is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2023, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.2 percent. According to CBRE Hotels Research, this is primarily due to slightly lower inflation expectations and a higher proportion of group travel and shoulder-period demand, which typically have lower rates. CBRE's baseline scenario forecast envisages an average GDP growth of 0.8 percent and average inflation of 4.6 percent in 2023. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, changes in the economic outlook will directly impact the performance of the lodging industry, CBRE noted. "We are already starting to see signs that the easing of travel restrictions in Japan and China, combined with continued improvements in group and independent business demand, are bolstering demand heading into the heavy summer travel season," said Rachael Rothman, head of hotel research & data analytics at CBRE.

ADR is projected to rise by 0.1 percentage points in 2024, with occupancy and RevPAR remaining unchanged from the previous forecast, according to STR and Tourism Economics' initial U.S. hotel forecast for 2024 at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit. Yet, 2025 projections for key performance metrics were revised downward due to stabilized long-term average trends: occupancy down 0.1 percentage points, ADR down 0.3 points and RevPAR down 0.5 ppts. "U.S. ADR and RevPAR reached record highs in 2023 with solid travel fundamentals and a big year for group business underpinning performance," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "We expect to see continued growth as fundamentals remain more favorable for the travel economy. The indicator that is especially important is the low unemployment rate among college-educated individuals, those most likely to travel for business and leisure." The STR and Tourism Economics forecast a rise in GOPPAR growth due to increased TRevPAR levels and stable labor costs. Among chain scales, luxury and upper upscale hotels are expected to see substantial cost increases, driven by growing group demand.

THE U.S. HOTEL industry is on track to full recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, according to STR's latest industry forecast. Progress may be uneven, however, as some obstacles, such as labor costs, still remain. ADR will near full recovery in 2022, averaging $130 while occupancy for the year is predicted to reach 63.4 percent. RevPAR's average for the year is set to be $82,down 4 percent compared to 2019, but it is expected to be fully recovered in 2023, according to the forecast given at the 43rd Annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference. STR and Tourism Economics said changes in the nation's economy warranted the new forecast. "We have essentially moved up the top-line recovery timeline by one year, with the caveat that improved RevPAR projections are largely due to ADR," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "ADR has risen more rapidly than we expected-in some cases, that rise was due to strong demand confronting capacity constraints, which enabled solid revenue management, while in other cases, the rise was more influenced by inflation. When adjusted for inflation, RevPAR is further off the pace and will likely remain below 2019 levels until at least 2025. Other than the first quarter of 2021, demand has mostly adhered to the forecast with strong leisure travel, slowly improving group business and an expected progressive increase in international arrivals next year. Of course, these are all national projections of top-line performance. Recovery is not playing out the same across the marketplace, and as noted in our latest monthly P&L release, the cost of labor is adding pressure on the bottom line, which is a contributing factor to many hotels driving rate. Recovery is progressing at a solid rate no doubt, but there will still be plenty of ups and downs along the way."

U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter and continue into 2025 despite subdued summer demand and a sluggish third quarter, according to CBRE. RevPAR growth for 2024 is now projected at 0.5 percent, down from 1.2 percent in August, due to a 40 bps drop in expected occupancy. Occupancy is forecast to decline 30 bps year-over-year while ADR is projected to rise 0.7 percent, 40 bps below earlier forecasts, the report said. RevPAR growth is expected to rebound in the four quarter of 2024, driven by rate cuts, easing inflation and stock market gains. "U.S. hotels performance was softer-than-expected during the summer months, partly due to Americans traveling overseas in record numbers," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "At the same time, the slow recovery in inbound international travel has created an imbalance in U.S. leisure demand. Despite this, continued improvements in group and business travel served as relative bright spots in the third quarter."

U.S. REVPAR IS expected to grow by 1.2 percent this year, down from the previously forecasted 2 percent, according to CBRE. Despite lower full-year projections, second-half growth is set to improve, with a 2 percent increase compared to 0.5 percent in the first half. CBRE's 2024 Global Midyear Hotels Outlook attributes these second-half growth projections to election-related events in the U.S., easier year-over-year comparisons, rising inbound international visitors, anticipated interest rate cuts, and a slight uptick in group and business travel. In the first half of 2024, RevPAR in 57 of the 65 U.S. markets tracked by CBRE returned to pre-pandemic levels. Most of the eight markets still lagging are in Northern California and the Upper Midwest. Major East Coast markets, including New York, Boston, Washington D.C., Atlanta and Miami, have surpassed 2019 levels.

ECONOMIC HEADWINDS AND geopolitical concerns are expected to affect U.S. hotel performance in 2024, according to PwC. The issues include continuing high interest rates and the Israel-Palestine conflict. Occupancy levels have consistently decreased over the past seven months compared to the same period in 2022. This downward trend is anticipated to persist for the remainder of this year and extend into at least the first quarter of 2024. However, PwC forecasts a 63 percent annual occupancy rate for US hotels this year. Hotels in the U.S. experienced a weakening in leisure demand during the latter part of this year, as global vacation destinations reopened, and leisure travelers regained confidence in traveling abroad, PwC said in its latest report titled U.S. Hospitality Directions: November 2023. Moreover, gains in individual and group business travel haven't completely counteracted this softening.

AS THE HOLIDAY season dwindles into the past, so did U.S. hotels' performance, according to STR. Occupancy dropped, dragging ADR and RevPAR with it. Occupancy was 45.4 percent for the week ending Jan. 8, down from 54.3 percent the week before and down 14.9 percent from the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $119.92 for the week, down from $157.91 week over week and a 4.8 percent drop from 2019. RevPAR reached $54.47, a decline from $85.74 the prior week and down 19 percent from 2019. "Occupancy fell week over week because of a slowdown in leisure demand and a continued absence of business travel due to a Saturday holiday," STR said. "While ADR also dropped from an all-time high the previous week, the metric came in at roughly 95 percent of the 2019 comparable." Occupancy did not increase over 2019 levels for any of STR's top 25 markets, but Dallas came closest, falling shy by 6.6 percent with 55.1 percent.

U.S. REVPAR IS expected to grow steadily in 2025, supported by urban markets benefiting from improved group and business travel and inbound international recovery, according to a recent CBRE study. The firm expects a 2 percent increase, with occupancy up 23 bps and ADR rising 1.6 percent. RevPAR in 2025 is projected to be 16.6 percent above 2019 levels, reflecting the lodging industry's continued recovery, CBRE said in a statement. "The U.S. hotel market is poised for steady growth in 2025, primarily led by continued outperformance of the urban segment, which should experience RevPAR growth of 2.8 percent this year," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "The sector's resilience and the sustained demand for higher-priced hotels bode well for the upcoming year."

AAHOA AND KALIBRI Labs launched a national study on the impact of federal policy changes and industry challenges, showing a mixed outlook for U.S. hospitality in 2025. About one-third of hotel submarkets are ahead of 2024 benchmarks, but more are seeing declines-particularly in government and corporate segments-raising concerns ahead of peak summer travel. AAHOA's March 2025 survey found 69 percent of hotel owners reported business declines linked to recent federal policy changes. "These findings are not just numbers-they reflect the real-world challenges and opportunities facing our members," said Miraj Patel, AAHOA chairman. "It's encouraging to see that some markets are holding steady or growing, but the overall outlook calls for close attention and action. As owners, we are on the front lines, and partnerships like this help ensure our perspective is represented in broader industry discussions."

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose 12.7 percent in December over the previous month. It was up 25.6 percent for 2021 as a whole. The index outperformed both the S&P 500, up 4.4 percent, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 8.2 percent in December. The hotel brand sub-index increased 13.2 percent from November while the Hotel REIT sub-index rose 10.9 percent. Investment was bolstered by some, if not good, then less bad than expected news regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Hotel stocks ended a volatile year with strong gains in December as the worst-case scenarios related to the Omicron variant appeared unlikely to unfold as initially feared," Bellisario said. "With the big rebound into year-end, the hotel brands ended up slightly outperforming the S&P 500 in 2021, while the hotel REITs - despite gaining 12 percent on the year - significantly lagged the RMZ's best-ever annual performance. Turning the calendar to 2022, leisure travel strength is expected to persist, but the wildcard for the overall industry's continued recovery remains a more substantialreturn of the business traveler."