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THE U.S. HOTEL industry is on track to full recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, according to STR's latest industry forecast. Progress may be uneven, however, as some obstacles, such as labor costs, still remain. ADR will near full recovery in 2022, averaging $130 while occupancy for the year is predicted to reach 63.4 percent. RevPAR's average for the year is set to be $82,down 4 percent compared to 2019, but it is expected to be fully recovered in 2023, according to the forecast given at the 43rd Annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference. STR and Tourism Economics said changes in the nation's economy warranted the new forecast. "We have essentially moved up the top-line recovery timeline by one year, with the caveat that improved RevPAR projections are largely due to ADR," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "ADR has risen more rapidly than we expected-in some cases, that rise was due to strong demand confronting capacity constraints, which enabled solid revenue management, while in other cases, the rise was more influenced by inflation. When adjusted for inflation, RevPAR is further off the pace and will likely remain below 2019 levels until at least 2025. Other than the first quarter of 2021, demand has mostly adhered to the forecast with strong leisure travel, slowly improving group business and an expected progressive increase in international arrivals next year. Of course, these are all national projections of top-line performance. Recovery is not playing out the same across the marketplace, and as noted in our latest monthly P&L release, the cost of labor is adding pressure on the bottom line, which is a contributing factor to many hotels driving rate. Recovery is progressing at a solid rate no doubt, but there will still be plenty of ups and downs along the way."

STEERED BY SEVERAL factors, including the strong performance by several hotel brands, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index increased 1.4 percent in April to a level of 5,430, STR said in a statement. Growth is slowing, STR said, but will continue for the next quarter or more. "Hotel stocks increased in April, and the gains were driven by outperformance from the global hotel brands," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "RevPAR trends have remained solid in the face of growing macroeconomic uncertainties and continued banking turmoil, and first-quarter earnings generally have surprised to the upside with positive full-year estimate revisions occurring. The Hotel REITs declined more than 2 percent in April and underperformed the RMZ, while the global hotel brands gained just over 2.5 percent and outperformed the S&P 500's return by 100 bps." According to STR, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell slightly behind the S&P 500, which was up 1.5 percent in April but came in above the MSCI US REIT Index, up 0.7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index jumped 2.5 percent from March to 10,178, while the hotel REIT sub-index dropped 2.6 percent to 1,045, it added. "The industry continues to revert to normal patterns and calendar shifts with growth slowing as forecasted," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Monthly demand fell year over year for the first time since the recovery began in April 2021, but that decrease can be attributed to an extra Sunday on the calendar this year versus last. Without the extra Sunday, which is historically a low-performance night, demand would have been slightly up from last year. ADR, on the other hand, grew 3.4 percent, while RevPAR was up 1.8 percent - the lowest increase of the recovery thus far. Despite slowing growth, we expect the industry to see further gains throughout the summer and fall."

THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

THE REVPAR OF U.S. hotels is expected to surpass 2019 levels this year, according to the upgraded forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. Still, full recovery may be a couple of years away. ADR and RevPAR for U.S. hotels are forecasted at $14 and $6 higher in 2022 respectively, when compared to 2019, the report presented at the 44th annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference stated. However, occupancy in this year is projected to come in under the pre-pandemic comparable. Earlier, the forecast projected nominal RevPAR recovery in 2023. According to the forecast, the major factor in the revised timeline was a plus $11 adjustment in 2022 ADR. But, when adjusted for inflation, full recovery of ADR and RevPAR are not projected until 2024. The report added that central business districts and the top 25 markets are not expected to reach full RevPAR recovery until after 2024.

IN RECENT WEEKS, CBRE Hotels Research has revised its forecast for the hospitality industry upward in light of several factors, such as rising occupancy levels, improvement in domestic travel and some opening in international travel. Recent developments, however, including the rise of the Omicron variant of the virus that causes COVID-19, elevates the uncertainty level of those forecasts, but still the industry is expected to return to 2019 levels by the second half of 2023 rather than 2024. Hotel occupancy in the third quarter rose 35.1 percent over the previous year, according to CBRE's December 2021 edition of Hotel Horizons. ADR also saw gains, reaching 2019 nominal levels in the third quarter. "CBRE expects ADR will continue to exceed 2019 levels, followed by a demand recovery in early 2023," CBRE said in a statement. "Pent-up demand for leisure destinations, an increase in household personal savings and fewer constraints on availability compared with earlier in the pandemic contributed to the brisk pace of ADR recovery. The resumption of inbound international travel will help gateway markets regain occupancy in the coming year."

OCCUPANCY FOR U.S. hotels is now expected to finish the year a little down from the previous forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. However, projections for ADR and RevPAR recovery remain on track in the data firms' final forecast of the year. RevPAR is still expected to fully recover this year on a nominal basis, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the new forecast. The updated forecast lowered occupancy by less than a percentage point for 2022, standing now at 62.7 percent compared to the previously forecasted 63 percent released in August. "As expected, group business travel has been much more aligned with pre-pandemic patterns, specifically in October when group demand hit a pandemic-era high," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Leisure travel has maintained its strength since our previous forecast update, and we expect these strong demand trends in both group and leisure to continue through the fourth quarter. Bottom-line performance has also persisted, with our most recent data showing strong profit margins due to lower employment levels and reduced services. The challenges around labor continue to be a concern, as high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor are pushing labor costs on a per-available-room basis above 2019 levels. We continue to take inflation and the likely recession into consideration, but the hotel industry has continued to show resilience through these tougher times, thus the steadiness of our updated forecast."

OCCUPANCY PROJECTIONS ARE dropping while ADR projections are rising in a new forecast for U.S. hotels by STR and Tourism Economics. RevPAR is still expected to recover fully on a nominal basis this year, according to the forecast released Thursday at STR's 14th Annual Hotel Data Conference in Nashville. However, RevPAR is still expected to take until 2025 to recover when adjusted for inflation, according to the forecast. For 2022, RevPAR is now expected to average $93 compared to the projection of $92 released in June, when projected nominal RevPAR recovery was set in 2023. The occupancy projection for the year was lowered to 64.6 percent for the year and the ADR projection rose to $148. The updated forecast adds a little more than $2 to the ADR projection for both 2022 and 2023, and occupancy was lowered by less than a percentage point for each year.

IN ANOTHER SIGN of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, this year's Super Bowl is expected to bring increases in hotel business to host city Los Angeles, according to STR. ADR and RevPAR are projected to reach the second-highest levels for any Super Bowl weekend on record. During the weekend of the game, Feb. 11 to 13, STR forecasts that ADR will reach $445 and RevPAR will be around $396 in the L.A. market. Occupancy is expected to hit 89 percent as fans flock in for the game. "Since July, the Los Angeles hotel market has consistently achieved monthly rates near or above pre-pandemic levels," said Blake Reiter, STR's director of custom forecasts. "Occupancy has been rapidly improving toward 2019 levels as well, but it hasn't reflected the same degree of recovery. We expect there will be, at least to a certain extent, a curtailing of occupancy because of COVID. Of course, if the NFL decides to switch venues as media reports have suggested, or implement more stringent protocols, L.A. hotel performance will certainly be among the ripple effects." Los Angeles's Super Bowl hotel occupancy is projected to outperform last year's venue, Tampa, Florida, which saw 82.4 percent occupancy when the home team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, defeated the Kansas City Chiefs. However, it is well below the 92.8 percent Miami saw when it hosted the game in 2020, and also is lower than what L.A. saw over the comparable weekend period in 2020, 87.7 percent.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose 12.7 percent in December over the previous month. It was up 25.6 percent for 2021 as a whole. The index outperformed both the S&P 500, up 4.4 percent, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 8.2 percent in December. The hotel brand sub-index increased 13.2 percent from November while the Hotel REIT sub-index rose 10.9 percent. Investment was bolstered by some, if not good, then less bad than expected news regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Hotel stocks ended a volatile year with strong gains in December as the worst-case scenarios related to the Omicron variant appeared unlikely to unfold as initially feared," Bellisario said. "With the big rebound into year-end, the hotel brands ended up slightly outperforming the S&P 500 in 2021, while the hotel REITs - despite gaining 12 percent on the year - significantly lagged the RMZ's best-ever annual performance. Turning the calendar to 2022, leisure travel strength is expected to persist, but the wildcard for the overall industry's continued recovery remains a more substantialreturn of the business traveler."

THE U.S. HOTEL industry will be well on the way to recovery in 2022, according to consulting firm HVS Americas. However, a full recovery in real terms, after adjusting for inflation, remains a few years away, it added. With more assets, both distressed and well performing, expected to come to market this year, 2022 will be an exciting year for the industry, said Rod Clough, president of HVS, in an article titled 'ALIS 2022 Takeaways - Our Industry Braces for a Big Year Ahead'. A near full recovery in RevPAR at $85 for U.S. hotels is likely to happen by the end of 2022 when compared to $86 in 2018-19. "The higher inflationary environment will continue to bode well for hotels, resulting in ADR pricing power leading to a lift in revenue on top of still lean operational models. Group travel is still lagging the recovery, but near-term, smaller-group bookings (at newly raised room rates) should help bridge the gap while the industry waits for larger meetings to return," Clough wrote in the article. "Rising development costs due to supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages, and overall inflation are leading to a general contraction in new hotel openings. Moreover, development challenges are intensifying for major CBDs, attributed to slow office re-openings, a lag in larger convention bookings, higher operating/labor costs, and even higher construction costs than your average project."

THE 2020 COVID-influenced lodging industry recession resulted in some noticeable changes to the way hotels provide F&B service. Social distancing regulations forced operators to be creative in the way they served food and beverages to guests. Rising wage rates and sharp increases in the cost of food and beverage products compelled hotel managers to find ways to control costs. The inability of hotels to attract employees to fill the positions eliminated during the recession required creative solutions to improve productivity and offer more with less. These factors resulted in the following hotel food and beverage trends during the subsequent recovery period: The increased offering of kiosks and grab-and-go venues The closing of traditional three-meal-a-day restaurants A reduction in the menus, number of seats, and hours of remaining F&B venues Reductions in in-room dining and mini-bar service The conversion of food and beverage space to other revenue generating purposes To learn how these recent changes in hotel food and beverage operations have impacted revenues and expenses, we have analyzed the operating statements of 2,500 U.S. full-service, resort, and convention hotels that participated in CBRE's annual Trends in the Hotel Industry in 2021 and 2022. In 2022, these 2,500 properties averaged 285 rooms in size, and achieved an occupancy of 64.7 percent, along with an ADR of $225.60. To provide more current information, we also relied on the monthly operating statements of 1,200 properties during the period January through June of 2023.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose in March, continuing a trend from the previous month. Still, continued growth remains at risk by factors such as inflation and political unrest. The index increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. It rose 2.4 percent year to date through the first three months of 2022. However, Baird/STR fell behind both the S&P 500, up 3.6 percent in March, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 5.9 percent. The hotel brand sub-index rose 1.4 percent from February, while the Hotel REIT sub-index jumped 5.1 percent. "Hotel stocks increased in March but underperformed their benchmarks as stock market volatility eased and geopolitical concerns did not worsen," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Underlying hotel fundamentals continued to improve in March, and the outlook appears more favorable today than just one month ago despite all of the background noise in the stock market and with interest rates on the rise. Higher gas prices and heightened concerns about a slower growth backdrop have been topical with investors lately, but broader travel momentum and pent-up demand should keep the lodging recovery going over the near term, in our opinion."

U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

DEMAND FOR U.S. extended-stay hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 was more than five times greater than supply, resulting in overall occupancy just below its 2019 peak, according to the Highland Group. December's monthly report from the group also showed the segment to be firmly in recovery. According to the research consulting firm's "U.S. Extended-stay Hotels: Fourth quarter 2021" report, the bottom up recovery continues with economy and mid-price extended-stay hotels in the fourth quarter posting record nominal average rate and RevPAR. Demand in the fourth quarter is at a record high and room revenues are almost 97 percent of their nominal high reached during the same period in 2019, the report said. Occupancy and ADR remain 4 to 5 percentage points off previous high levels but should pick up in the near term as the demand change was six times the corresponding change in supply, it added.

THE OMICRON COVID-19 variant could derail the hotel industry's fledgling recovery if countries like the U.S. move forward to tighten testing policies, according to HotStats. Future hotel bookings, meetings and other hotel-related activity will be impacted by the expectation of travel impediments, whether self-imposed, company-imposed or government-mandated, it added. In the U.S., major indices were still down double digits in October 2021 compared to same month two years ago, according to a blog post by HotStats. "Since a rapid uptick in occupancy from the beginning of the year through the summer, hitting an apex in July, occupancy in the U.S. has since more or less flatlined, a signal that the leisure boom could not be sustained at the same levels prior," said HotStats. "Though much maligned, there is propitious data surfacing in corporate travel. In October, corporate ADR was $7 higher than in October 2019 and $35 higher than in the previous month. Corporate volume mix, defined as the proportion of rooms sold at the corporate rate compared to total rooms sold, has grown 6 percentage points since July."

A STRONG PERFORMANCE by U.S. hotels during the first quarter of 2022, along with other factors, are leading CBRE Hotels Research to raise its forecast for the rest of the year. The research firm now expects a full recovery in ADR in 2022 and in demand and RevPAR in 2023. First quarter RevPAR reached $72.20, up 61 percent from year earlier, despite a surge from the COVID-19 omicron variant, according to CBRE. RevPAR growth was driven by a 39 percent increase in ADR and a 16 percent increase in occupancy. ADR was 5 percent ahead of 2019's levels, marking the third consecutive quarter in which levels exceed the same period in 2019. These rising rates demonstrate that travelers aren't price-sensitive in many peak-demand markets.

INTERNATIONAL INBOUND TRAVEL is expected to slow down in the fall after surging over the summer, according to the latest U.S. Travel Association forecast. USTA also expects it may take until 2025 for the travel segment to recover to pre-pandemic levels. Inbound travel recovery picked up in summer and reached a pre-pandemic high of 35 percent below 2019 levels in July 2022, said U.S. Travel Association. It improved from a 41 percent decrease in May and declines of more than 50 percent earlier in 2022. The latest report by Aaron Szyf, economist, USTA, said that inbound travel recovery continued from Europe and Latin America in the past few months, which was 22 percent below 2019 levels in July. Meanwhile, Asian markets declined 66 percent in July, largely due to stagnation from China and a very slow return from Japan.