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U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE's November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8 percent increase in RevPAR in 2023. This is up from CBRE's previous forecast of a 5.6 percent increase in RevPAR for 2023. Propelling CBRE's increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2 percent rise in ADR, driven in part by the continuation of above long-run average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. to increase by 3.5 percent year over year. Inflation continues to have a mixed impact on the hotel industry, bolstering top-line growth while pressuring margins. Supply and Demand Inflation is also impacting development activity. The combination of rising construction material costs, a tight labor market, and high interest rates will serve to keep supply growth over the next five years 40 percent lower than historical trends. Instead of construction, we expect cash flows in the near term to be focused on debt reductions, renovations and remodels given the backlog of Capex that built up during the pandemic. Given its forecast for a 0.2 percent decline in 2023 gross domestic product, CBRE lowered its expectations for demand growth from 3.3 percent in their August 2022 forecasts to 2.9 percent in the November update. With the projected supply increase remaining at 1.2 percent for 2023, the net result is a reduction in CBRE's occupancy growth estimate for the year to 1.6 percent, down from the 2 percent increase previously forecast. The lowering of occupancy expectations will somewhat offset the enhanced outlook for ADR growth.

ADR is projected to rise by 0.1 percentage points in 2024, with occupancy and RevPAR remaining unchanged from the previous forecast, according to STR and Tourism Economics' initial U.S. hotel forecast for 2024 at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit. Yet, 2025 projections for key performance metrics were revised downward due to stabilized long-term average trends: occupancy down 0.1 percentage points, ADR down 0.3 points and RevPAR down 0.5 ppts. "U.S. ADR and RevPAR reached record highs in 2023 with solid travel fundamentals and a big year for group business underpinning performance," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "We expect to see continued growth as fundamentals remain more favorable for the travel economy. The indicator that is especially important is the low unemployment rate among college-educated individuals, those most likely to travel for business and leisure." The STR and Tourism Economics forecast a rise in GOPPAR growth due to increased TRevPAR levels and stable labor costs. Among chain scales, luxury and upper upscale hotels are expected to see substantial cost increases, driven by growing group demand.

STR AND TOURISM ECONOMICS have increased year-over-year growth projections for ADR and RevPAR in the final revision of the U.S. hotel forecast for 2023. While some factors, such as higher interest rates and more restrictive lending, may impact the economy, their effect on the travel industry is not expected to be strong. In 2023, RevPAR saw a 0.3 percentage point increase, propelled by a 0.6ppt rise in ADR growth, according to STR and TE. Meanwhile, recent RevPAR trends affirm rate as the predominant performance driver. Occupancy was downgraded by 0.2ppts, STR and TE said in a statement. Growth projections for key performance metrics in 2024 remained flat from the previous forecast, reflecting the stabilization of long-term average trends.

HOTELS IN THE Americas performed above 2019 levels, although RevPAR is stabilizing amidst decreasing consumer travel spending, according to real estate firm JLL. This has affected resort markets heavily dependent on leisure travel. In contrast, urban travel demand is on the rise, driven by group, corporate, and inbound international travel. According to JLL's Global Real Estate Perspective for February 2024, global hotel RevPAR surpassed 2019 levels by 11.7 percent in the first 11 months of 2023. The global urban market strengthened with increased international travel and the return of business and group demand. London, New York, and Tokyo are expected to lead global RevPAR performance in 2024 as urban travel rebounds. Stabilization has weighed heaviest in resort markets, particularly in the Americas and EMEA, while Asia-Pacific continues to accelerate as intraregional travel grows following border reopenings, the report added. Foreign capital, absent since the onset of COVID, is expected to become more active over the next 12 months. Middle Eastern and Asian investors are likely to lead, with urban markets in Europe and select U.S. cities as primary recipients of capital.

TOTAL EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS achieved new fourth-quarter milestones in 2023, setting records in supply, demand, ADR, RevPAR, and room revenues, according to The Highland Group. Despite this, occupancy declined alongside the broader hotel industry trend, with slower growth in ADR and RevPAR throughout the year. Consequently, extended-stay hotel RevPAR experienced its smallest fourth quarter increase since 2019, excluding contractionary periods. Extended-stay hotel supply growth increased marginally in 2023 but remained very low, the report said. The last time supply growth consistently hovered around its current level was from the fourth quarter of 2010 through the third quarter of 2014. Throughout this period, supply increases stayed below their long-term historical average for 20 consecutive quarters, while the federal funds rate was about 10 times higher than its current level. With interest rates and construction costs expected to stay relatively high, the risk of extended stay hotel oversupply nationally is low in the near term, despite the launch of several new brands, The Highland Group said.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE saw a significant increase in the first week of December compared to the previous week, with improvements in hotel occupancy, ADR and RevPAR, according to CoStar. Year-over-year results also reflected positive trends. Occupancy rose to 58.7 percent for the week ending Dec. 9, up from the previous week's 54.2 percent, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 1.1 percent. ADR increased to $153.36, compared to the previous week's $144.88, showing a 4.5 percent uptick from the prior year. RevPAR also soared to $89.98, compared to the prior week's $78.54, indicating a 3.3 percent decrease from the corresponding period in 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Boston saw the largest year-over-year occupancy increase, surging by 4.1 percent to 72.7 percent. Helped by Miami Art Week and Art Basel, Miami reported significant increases in ADR, soaring 48.8 percent to $314.55, and RevPAR, jumping 67 percent to $262.16.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE rose in the second week of March compared to the previous week but declined year over year, according to CoStar. Key metrics, including occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR, all saw increases compared to the prior week. Occupancy climbed to 63.2 percent for the week ending March 9, up from the prior week's 62.5 percent, reflecting a 2.2 percent year-over-year decline. ADR rose to $156.96 from $155.29 the previous week, marking a 0.6 percent decrease compared to last year. RevPAR reached $99.17, up from the previous week's $97.12, signifying a 2.8 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Minneapolis saw significant year-over-year growth across all three key performance metrics: occupancy surged by 25.1 percent to 63.7 percent, ADR rose by 15.9 percent to $143.12, and RevPAR increased by 45.1 percent to $91.11.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE showed improvement in the second week of January compared to the previous week, with mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar. Key metrics, including occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR, saw moderate increases during the week compared to the New Year's commencement. The performance was influenced by the Consumer Electronics Show. Occupancy came in at 53.3 percent for the week ending Jan. 13, up from the previous week's 46.8 percent and reflecting a 2.8 percent year-over-year decrease. ADR rose to $153.84, compared to the prior week's $152.17, showing a 6.3 percent increase from the previous year. RevPAR increased to $81.96 from the prior week's $71.28, showing a 3.3 percent rise from the corresponding period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Las Vegas demonstrated the largest year-over-year increases in each of the three performance metrics. Occupancy increased by 29 percent to reach 79.8 percent, ADR rose by 77.3 percent to $283.74, and RevPAR increased by 128.8 percent to $226.34.

HYATT HOTELS CORP. reported $26 million in net income for the fourth quarter of 2023 and $220 million for the year. Comparable system-wide RevPAR grew by 9.1 percent during the same period and 17 percent for the full year of 2023, outperforming figures from 2022 and exceeding the previous full-year outlook. Adjusted net income reached $68 million in Q4 and $276 million for full-year 2023, Hyatt said in a statement. "The fourth quarter marks the completion of a transformative year and demonstrates the progress towards our strategic vision and earnings evolution," said Mark Hoplamazian, Hyatt's president and CEO. "RevPAR growth exceeded the high end of our guidance range and we had industry-leading net rooms growth for the seventh consecutive year. This led to a record level of fees and the highest free cash flow in Hyatt's history. We returned $500 million to our shareholders and achieved an asset-light earnings mix of approximately 76 percent for the full year, a testament to the successful execution of our strategy."

EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS DISPLAYED varied performance in December compared to the overall hotel industry, with supply, demand, and room revenues showing relative gains, according to The Highland Group. Occupancy experienced a milder decline than the broader hotel sector while low ADR growth and an unexpected decline in economy extended-stay RevPAR resulted in a total extended-stay hotel RevPAR decrease versus a slight RevPAR increase in the overall hotel industry. The 2.4 percent net increase in extended-stay room supply in December represents a modest rise compared to the average over the past 18 months and a slight gain over the most recent three months, the report said. Supply shifts overview December marked nine consecutive quarters with 4 percent or less supply growth, significantly below the long-term average, according to The Highland report. The 13 percent surge in economy extended-stay supply and the reduction in mid-price segment rooms are primarily attributed to conversions, with new construction in the economy segment accounting for approximately 3 percent of rooms compared to a year ago.

A STRONGER THAN expected performance by U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 led CBRE Hotels Research to upgrade its forecast for the rest of 2022. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR will reach 2019 nominal levels by the third quarter of this year, one year earlier than the previous forecast. Occupancy is expected to rise 6.7 percent to 61.3 percent this year, then rise 5.2 percent to 64.4 percent in 2023. ADR is forecast to rise 10.1 percent to $133.94 in 2022 and go up 6 percent more to $141.99 in 2023. CBRE expects RevPAR to rise 17.5 percent in 2022 overall to $82.04 and then rise 11.5 percent to $91.46 in 2023. Positive trends, such as high employment and the return to the office for many workers who had been working from home contributed to the revised forecast, CBRE said. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical tensions connected to the war in Ukraine still threaten progress.

STEERED BY SEVERAL factors, including the strong performance by several hotel brands, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index increased 1.4 percent in April to a level of 5,430, STR said in a statement. Growth is slowing, STR said, but will continue for the next quarter or more. "Hotel stocks increased in April, and the gains were driven by outperformance from the global hotel brands," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "RevPAR trends have remained solid in the face of growing macroeconomic uncertainties and continued banking turmoil, and first-quarter earnings generally have surprised to the upside with positive full-year estimate revisions occurring. The Hotel REITs declined more than 2 percent in April and underperformed the RMZ, while the global hotel brands gained just over 2.5 percent and outperformed the S&P 500's return by 100 bps." According to STR, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell slightly behind the S&P 500, which was up 1.5 percent in April but came in above the MSCI US REIT Index, up 0.7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index jumped 2.5 percent from March to 10,178, while the hotel REIT sub-index dropped 2.6 percent to 1,045, it added. "The industry continues to revert to normal patterns and calendar shifts with growth slowing as forecasted," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Monthly demand fell year over year for the first time since the recovery began in April 2021, but that decrease can be attributed to an extra Sunday on the calendar this year versus last. Without the extra Sunday, which is historically a low-performance night, demand would have been slightly up from last year. ADR, on the other hand, grew 3.4 percent, while RevPAR was up 1.8 percent - the lowest increase of the recovery thus far. Despite slowing growth, we expect the industry to see further gains throughout the summer and fall."

IHG HOTELS & RESORTS reported a 23 percent increase in profit from reportable segments in 2023, surpassing the $1 billion milestone for the first time. The company also noted a 16.1 percent rise in RevPAR, a 5.1 percent increase in ADR, and a 6.4 percentage point uptick in occupancy during the previous year. It anticipates returning more than $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks this year, IHG said in a statement. "Travel demand was strong across all markets, with RevPAR up 16 percent from last year and 11 percent ahead of the 2019 pre-pandemic peak," said Elie Maalouf, IHG Hotels & Resorts' chief executive officer. "Combined with the power of our enterprise and efficient operating model, profit from reportable segments grew by 23 percent, exceeding one billion dollars for the first time, and adjusted EPS grew by 33 percent." This marks one of the company's most significant quarters for development activity, IHG said. The company reported full-year revenue of $4.62 billion, marking a nearly 19 percent increase from $3.89 billion in 2022.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE maintained a mixed trend compared to the previous week, in line with ongoing seasonal patterns, according to CoStar. However, there were positive year-over-year comparisons, signaling signs of recovery. Occupancy was 62.7 percent for the week ending Sept. 2, down from the prior week, but it showed a 0.2 percent increase compared to 2022, part of the seasonal pattern. ADR stood at $150.52, a slight drop from the previous week, though it displayed a 1.8 percent growth compared to the same period last year. RevPAR was $94.38, lower than the week ago, yet it still indicated a 2 percent rise from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Minneapolis recorded significant year-over-year gains in occupancy, surging 19.1 percent to hit 74.4 percent, while RevPAR increased by 26.7 percent, reaching $101.06.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE has increased in the second week of September compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. However, year-over-year comparisons remained mixed. Occupancy stood at 68.5 percent for the week ending on Oct. 14, a slight uptick from the previous week's 67.8 percent, and a marginal year-over-year decline of 2.3 percent. ADR increased to $164.25, up from the previous week's $163.19, marking a 3.2 percent surge compared to the previous year. RevPAR also showed improvement, reaching $112.51, surpassing the previous week's $110.68, and reflecting a 0.8 percent rise from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Oahu Island experienced the highest year-over-year growth in occupancy, rising by 17.8 percent to reach 85.2 percent, while RevPAR increased by 29.7 percent to $243.22.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE persisted in its downward trend during the last week of August, influenced by seasonal patterns in contrast to the previous week, according to CoStar. However, year-on-year comparisons improved while Maui Island, Hawaii, still recovering from deadly wildfires, showed signs of recovery. Occupancy came in at 65 percent for the week ending Aug. 26, down from the previous week's 67 percent, but it showed a 0.4 percent increase compared to 2022. ADR stood at $150.23, a decrease from the previous week's $154.10, though it displayed a 1.7 percent growth compared to the same period last year. RevPAR was $97.62, below the prior week's $103.22, yet it still indicated a 2.1 percent rise from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Las Vegas achieved the largest year-over-year occupancy increase as August ended, rising by 7.9 percent to reach 76.3 percent. Houston achieved the highest ADR at $112.08, with a 10.5 percent increase, and the highest RevPAR at $64.45, reflecting a 17.8 percent increase.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE displayed mixed outcomes in the fourth week of February compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. While occupancy and RevPAR experienced a modest increase, ADR declined from the prior week. Occupancy increased to 62 percent for the week ending Feb. 24, up from the previous week's 59.2 percent, marking a 3.3 percent year-over-year decline. ADR decreased to $156.62 from $162.24 the prior week, reflecting a 0.3 percent increase compared to the previous year. RevPAR rose to $97.12 from $96.10 the prior week, indicating a 2.9 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Among the top 25 markets, Minneapolis reported the highest year-over-year occupancy increase, rising by 4.5 percent to reach 47.8 percent.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY HOTEL occupancy declined across 59 MSAs in 2023 compared to 2019, primarily due to significant ADR growth over the past three years, according to The Highland Group. Additionally, extended-stay hotel RevPAR surged in more than 80 percent of MSAs, with ten of them, including four major hotel markets, experiencing gains exceeding 10 percent. Despite an 8 percent increase in the number of extended-stay hotel rooms under construction in the 100 largest MSAs over the past year, the figures remain below pre-pandemic levels, the report said. The resurgence in occupancy was notably led by smaller markets, where strong ADR increases and supply expansion played pivotal roles in driving the lowest occupancy recovery indices for MSAs in 2023.

U.S. HOTEL DEMAND declined by 0.5 percent year over year in the third quarter of 2023, according to CBRE. Simultaneously, there was a matching 0.5 percent increase in supply. The combined effect of these factors led to a 1 percent decrease in occupancy. ADR increased by 0.6 percent during the quarter, marking the slowest improvement since the pandemic recovery began 10 quarters ago, the CBRE data revealed. RevPAR decreased by 0.3 percent, as a modest decline in occupancy was partially offset by the rise in ADR. Despite sustained consumer spending, hotel demand and pricing power in Q3 were hampered by competition from alternative lodging sources like short-term rentals and cruise lines, along with an uptick in outbound international travel. According to the report, hotel wage growth in September outpaced the national average of 4.3 percent, registering at 4.7 percent, but declined from 7 percent at year-end 2022. Average hourly hotel wages fell nearly $10 below the national average, suggesting ongoing pressure for wage increases.