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DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE's November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8 percent increase in RevPAR in 2023. This is up from CBRE's previous forecast of a 5.6 percent increase in RevPAR for 2023. Propelling CBRE's increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2 percent rise in ADR, driven in part by the continuation of above long-run average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. to increase by 3.5 percent year over year. Inflation continues to have a mixed impact on the hotel industry, bolstering top-line growth while pressuring margins. Supply and Demand Inflation is also impacting development activity. The combination of rising construction material costs, a tight labor market, and high interest rates will serve to keep supply growth over the next five years 40 percent lower than historical trends. Instead of construction, we expect cash flows in the near term to be focused on debt reductions, renovations and remodels given the backlog of Capex that built up during the pandemic. Given its forecast for a 0.2 percent decline in 2023 gross domestic product, CBRE lowered its expectations for demand growth from 3.3 percent in their August 2022 forecasts to 2.9 percent in the November update. With the projected supply increase remaining at 1.2 percent for 2023, the net result is a reduction in CBRE's occupancy growth estimate for the year to 1.6 percent, down from the 2 percent increase previously forecast. The lowering of occupancy expectations will somewhat offset the enhanced outlook for ADR growth.

OCCUPANCY PROJECTIONS ARE dropping while ADR projections are rising in a new forecast for U.S. hotels by STR and Tourism Economics. RevPAR is still expected to recover fully on a nominal basis this year, according to the forecast released Thursday at STR's 14th Annual Hotel Data Conference in Nashville. However, RevPAR is still expected to take until 2025 to recover when adjusted for inflation, according to the forecast. For 2022, RevPAR is now expected to average $93 compared to the projection of $92 released in June, when projected nominal RevPAR recovery was set in 2023. The occupancy projection for the year was lowered to 64.6 percent for the year and the ADR projection rose to $148. The updated forecast adds a little more than $2 to the ADR projection for both 2022 and 2023, and occupancy was lowered by less than a percentage point for each year.

A STRONGER THAN expected performance by U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 led CBRE Hotels Research to upgrade its forecast for the rest of 2022. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR will reach 2019 nominal levels by the third quarter of this year, one year earlier than the previous forecast. Occupancy is expected to rise 6.7 percent to 61.3 percent this year, then rise 5.2 percent to 64.4 percent in 2023. ADR is forecast to rise 10.1 percent to $133.94 in 2022 and go up 6 percent more to $141.99 in 2023. CBRE expects RevPAR to rise 17.5 percent in 2022 overall to $82.04 and then rise 11.5 percent to $91.46 in 2023. Positive trends, such as high employment and the return to the office for many workers who had been working from home contributed to the revised forecast, CBRE said. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical tensions connected to the war in Ukraine still threaten progress.

HYATT HOTELS CORP. reported $26 million in net income for the fourth quarter of 2023 and $220 million for the year. Comparable system-wide RevPAR grew by 9.1 percent during the same period and 17 percent for the full year of 2023, outperforming figures from 2022 and exceeding the previous full-year outlook. Adjusted net income reached $68 million in Q4 and $276 million for full-year 2023, Hyatt said in a statement. "The fourth quarter marks the completion of a transformative year and demonstrates the progress towards our strategic vision and earnings evolution," said Mark Hoplamazian, Hyatt's president and CEO. "RevPAR growth exceeded the high end of our guidance range and we had industry-leading net rooms growth for the seventh consecutive year. This led to a record level of fees and the highest free cash flow in Hyatt's history. We returned $500 million to our shareholders and achieved an asset-light earnings mix of approximately 76 percent for the full year, a testament to the successful execution of our strategy."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE maintained a mixed trend compared to the previous week, in line with ongoing seasonal patterns, according to CoStar. However, there were positive year-over-year comparisons, signaling signs of recovery. Occupancy was 62.7 percent for the week ending Sept. 2, down from the prior week, but it showed a 0.2 percent increase compared to 2022, part of the seasonal pattern. ADR stood at $150.52, a slight drop from the previous week, though it displayed a 1.8 percent growth compared to the same period last year. RevPAR was $94.38, lower than the week ago, yet it still indicated a 2 percent rise from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Minneapolis recorded significant year-over-year gains in occupancy, surging 19.1 percent to hit 74.4 percent, while RevPAR increased by 26.7 percent, reaching $101.06.

OCCUPANCY FOR U.S. hotels is now expected to finish the year a little down from the previous forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. However, projections for ADR and RevPAR recovery remain on track in the data firms' final forecast of the year. RevPAR is still expected to fully recover this year on a nominal basis, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the new forecast. The updated forecast lowered occupancy by less than a percentage point for 2022, standing now at 62.7 percent compared to the previously forecasted 63 percent released in August. "As expected, group business travel has been much more aligned with pre-pandemic patterns, specifically in October when group demand hit a pandemic-era high," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Leisure travel has maintained its strength since our previous forecast update, and we expect these strong demand trends in both group and leisure to continue through the fourth quarter. Bottom-line performance has also persisted, with our most recent data showing strong profit margins due to lower employment levels and reduced services. The challenges around labor continue to be a concern, as high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor are pushing labor costs on a per-available-room basis above 2019 levels. We continue to take inflation and the likely recession into consideration, but the hotel industry has continued to show resilience through these tougher times, thus the steadiness of our updated forecast."

STEERED BY SEVERAL factors, including the strong performance by several hotel brands, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index increased 1.4 percent in April to a level of 5,430, STR said in a statement. Growth is slowing, STR said, but will continue for the next quarter or more. "Hotel stocks increased in April, and the gains were driven by outperformance from the global hotel brands," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "RevPAR trends have remained solid in the face of growing macroeconomic uncertainties and continued banking turmoil, and first-quarter earnings generally have surprised to the upside with positive full-year estimate revisions occurring. The Hotel REITs declined more than 2 percent in April and underperformed the RMZ, while the global hotel brands gained just over 2.5 percent and outperformed the S&P 500's return by 100 bps." According to STR, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell slightly behind the S&P 500, which was up 1.5 percent in April but came in above the MSCI US REIT Index, up 0.7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index jumped 2.5 percent from March to 10,178, while the hotel REIT sub-index dropped 2.6 percent to 1,045, it added. "The industry continues to revert to normal patterns and calendar shifts with growth slowing as forecasted," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Monthly demand fell year over year for the first time since the recovery began in April 2021, but that decrease can be attributed to an extra Sunday on the calendar this year versus last. Without the extra Sunday, which is historically a low-performance night, demand would have been slightly up from last year. ADR, on the other hand, grew 3.4 percent, while RevPAR was up 1.8 percent - the lowest increase of the recovery thus far. Despite slowing growth, we expect the industry to see further gains throughout the summer and fall."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dipped slightly in the second week of August in line with seasonal trends, according to STR. However, ADR and RevPAR increased compared to the same period in 2019. Occupancy was 68.5 percent for the week ending August 13, down from 69.9 percent the week before and dropped 4.6 percent from 2019. ADR was $152.34 for the week, down from $154.48 the week before and increased 15.8 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $104.30 during the week, fell from $108.04 the week before and up 10. 5 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, only Norfolk/Virginia Beach reported an occupancy increase, up 0.4 percent to 80.1 percent, over 2019.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE fell in the first week of August compared to the week before following seasonal patterns, according to STR. However, ADR and RevPAR were up compared to the same period in 2019. Occupancy was 69.9 percent for the week ending August 6, down from 71.9 percent the week before and dropped 5.7 percent from 2019. ADR was $154.48 for the week, decreased from $158.32 the week before and increased 15.1 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $108.04 during the week, down from $113.90 the week before and up 8.5 percent from 2019. St. Louis reported the largest occupancy increase during the week, up 7.1. percent to 75.9 percent, over 2019, among STR's top 25 markets. Oahu Island (84.6 percent) led major markets in absolute occupancy during the first week of August, followed by Seattle (84.8 percent), and San Diego (83.8 percent).

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE remained relatively flat during the third week of January, according to STR. Tampa, Florida, led the top 25 markets in terms of occupancy. Occupancy was 48.7 percent for the week ending Jan. 22, and it was 48.8 percent the week before. It was down 15.9 percent from the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $122.17 for the week, almost same as the week before at $122.12 and down 1.4 percent from two years ago. RevPAR reached $59.52, it was $59.57 the prior week and down 17.1 percent from the same period two years ago. None of STR's to 25 markets recorded an occupancy increase during the period compared to two years ago. Tampa came closest to its pre-pandemic comparable in the third week, down just 1.7 percent to 72.1 percent. It also posted the largest ADR rise, up 14 percent to $151.74. The only RevPAR increase was also registered at Tampa, up 12 percent to $109.39.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE persisted in its downward trend during the last week of August, influenced by seasonal patterns in contrast to the previous week, according to CoStar. However, year-on-year comparisons improved while Maui Island, Hawaii, still recovering from deadly wildfires, showed signs of recovery. Occupancy came in at 65 percent for the week ending Aug. 26, down from the previous week's 67 percent, but it showed a 0.4 percent increase compared to 2022. ADR stood at $150.23, a decrease from the previous week's $154.10, though it displayed a 1.7 percent growth compared to the same period last year. RevPAR was $97.62, below the prior week's $103.22, yet it still indicated a 2.1 percent rise from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Las Vegas achieved the largest year-over-year occupancy increase as August ended, rising by 7.9 percent to reach 76.3 percent. Houston achieved the highest ADR at $112.08, with a 10.5 percent increase, and the highest RevPAR at $64.45, reflecting a 17.8 percent increase.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE has increased in the second week of September compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. However, year-over-year comparisons remained mixed. Occupancy stood at 68.5 percent for the week ending on Oct. 14, a slight uptick from the previous week's 67.8 percent, and a marginal year-over-year decline of 2.3 percent. ADR increased to $164.25, up from the previous week's $163.19, marking a 3.2 percent surge compared to the previous year. RevPAR also showed improvement, reaching $112.51, surpassing the previous week's $110.68, and reflecting a 0.8 percent rise from 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Oahu Island experienced the highest year-over-year growth in occupancy, rising by 17.8 percent to reach 85.2 percent, while RevPAR increased by 29.7 percent to $243.22.

WHEN IT COMES to growing hotel revenue, size does not matter. Economy hotels and micro-inventory properties are experiencing one of the biggest booms in recent years, thanks partly to a massive resurgence in small group travel, changing economic trends, and the staying power of global "return to travel". CBRE noted economy and midscale hotels recovered to 2019 performance levels by 2021, and properties with fewer rooms may benefit from lower operating costs when compared to their big-box brethren-though they also tend to have fewer resources with which to hire revenue professionals. Revenue managers are driving the charge for better operating returns. Many are taking the lessons they learned from their success at larger hotels and applying these truths to the industry's smaller properties. These revenue managers leverage new technology and strategies, options that small hotels with smaller, cross-functional staff haven't fully embraced. However, competition among economy hotels and properties tends to be fierce, requiring new action, especially with recent economic pressures and a downward 2023 RevPAR forecast of 0.2 percent in recent data shared by Tourism Economics . Modern revenue management practices and technology can provide these hotels with many benefits and significant competitive advantages. Small hotels need to avoid the erratic rate shifts of the past and capitalize on new trends as they emerge. By embracing strong revenue management systems and discipline in these properties, operators can realize greater control over a typically inconsistent space. Room Enough for Revenue The most common misconception about revenue management's place in hospitality is that it is the domain of large or full-service hotels. This is simply not the case today. No two hotels are the same, in practice, with key differences always existing between the layout of a property, its location, third-party partnerships, and so on. Every hotel has different r

THE FIRST QUARTER of 2022 brought better than the national average performance for Twenty Four Seven Hotels. The Newport Beach, California-based third-party hospitality management company also acquired two new hotels in Southern California. Steady growth in year's beginning Occupancy for Twenty Four Seven properties rose steadily during the first three months of the year, hitting 62.9 percent in January, 67.8 percent in February and 76 percent in March. ADR also rose during the same three months, from $142.66 to $160.99 to $174.02. RevPAR followed the same trend, rising from $89.73 to $109.10 to $132.25. Each metric also rose compared to the first quarter of 2021. "We continue to ride the massive wave of momentum that began for Twenty Four Seven Hotels in 2021, when our portfolio grew by 25 percent with the addition of seven new hotels now totaling 25 hotels with more than 3,100 rooms," said David Wani, CEO of Twenty Four Seven. "We will continue to seek third-party management opportunities with well-respected partners and brands in the western U.S., expanding our concentration in these unique markets where we have firsthand experience improving bottom lines and guest satisfaction scores."

THE OMICRON VARIANT has not good for the hospitality industry, but it hasn't been as bad as expected, which is a good sign for the future, according to HotStats. GOPPAR for November was up from the same time last year, but still down from 2019. GOPPAR for November was $55.68, down 29.4 percent from November 2019. It's also down from $68.97 In October, but according to HotStats that is not unusual for this time of year. "A typical spike in profit in October, normally gives way to a drop off in November," HotStats said. "ADR in the month was $7 higher than at the same time in 2019 after being well down in 2020. This helped drive both RevPAR and TRevPAR, which were both up triple digits over 2020, though still down considerably versus 2019." The appearance and rapid spread of Omicron, which originated in South Africa and by December was the dominant strain in the U.S., was a "noisy" intrusion, HotStats said, coming as it did while the country was still dealing with a spike from the Delta variant. However, it could turn out to "be more insipid than insidious."

THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index jumped 16.4 percent in the first month of 2023, according to STR. A drop in recession fears and other factors gave investor confidence a boost, the research firms said. In January, the Baird/STR Index surpassed both the S&P 500, up 6.2 percent and the MSCI US REIT Index, increased 10.5 percent, STR said in a report. The index dropped 10 percent in December, and it was down 15 percent for 2022. According to STR, the Hotel Brand sub-index increased 16.2 percent from December to 10,342, while the Hotel REIT sub-index rose 17.1 percent to 1,216. "Hotel stocks rebounded sharply in January and were significant outperformers as the back-and-forth recessionary concerns once again subsided to start the year," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Industry-wide RevPAR trends finished the year on a strong note despite tougher calendar comparisons and weather-related travel disruptions in December. Several Hotel REITs provided fourth-quarter operational updates, and performance generally was in line with prior expectations. More broadly, investor sentiment has improved, which boosted stock prices across the board in January, but the macroeconomic indicators have remained mixed."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dipped in the first week of July when compared to the week before mainly due to decline in demand on account of the Independence Day holiday, according to STR. STR predicted that occupancy and demand are likely to fall again for a week before strengthening in the remaining weeks of July. Occupancy in the week before the holiday fell by more than four percentage points with most of the losses beginning on Wednesday and continuing into the weekend. Since 2000, the fourth of July holiday has fallen on a Monday seven times, including in 2021 and in 2016. Occupancy was 67.3 percent for the week ending July 2, down from 72.3 percent the week before and dropped 2.9 percent from 2019. ADR was $153.32 for the week, declined from $157.05 the week before and increased 19.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $103.24 during the week down from $113.55 the week before and up 23.1 percent from 2019.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE increased in the third week of February mainly due to Presidents' Day weekend, according to STR. The data research firm also reported improvement for the week compared to 2019. Occupancy was 59.1 percent for the week ending Feb. 19, up from 54.6 percent the week before and down 8.4 percent for the same period in 2019. ADR was $140.11 for the week, increased from $133.72 the week before and up 8.4 percent from two years ago. RevPAR was $82.87 for the week, up from $73 the week before and down just 0.8 percent from the same period two years ago. Norfolk/Virginia Beach recorded the only occupancy increase among STR's top 25 markets in the third week of February, up 5.7 percent to 55 percent, over 2019. According to the report, Miami posted the highest ADR increase during the period, increased 28 percent to $347.48, followed by Super Bowl LVI host, Los Angeles, which was up 26.4 percent to $225.07.

Occupancy was 62 percent for the week ending April 16, down from 66.4 percent the week before and down 5.6 percent from 2019. ADR was $147.25 for the week, down from $150.45 the week before and up 14.4 percent from 2019. RevPAR reached $91.25 during the week, down from $99.93 the week before and up 8 percent from three years ago. Among STR's top 25 markets, Tampa saw the highest occupancy increase over 2019, up 3.2 percent to 76.6 percent. Phoenix posted the largest ADR increase in the week, up 33.8 percent to $189.16, over 2019.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE increased in the fourth week of September compared to the week before, according to STR. Performance also improved when compared to 2019. Occupancy was 70 percent for the week ending Sept. 24, increased slightly from 69.6 percent the week before and decreased just 1.5 percent from 2019. ADR was $157.99 for the week, up from $155.58 the week before and increased 15.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $110.60 during the week, increased from $108.25 the week before and up 13.9 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Orlando reported the highest occupancy increase for September's fourth week, up 7.9 percent to 72.2 percent, over 2019.