Group items tagged probability - applied statistics

shared by Benno Hansen on 17 Jul 10 - Cached

We live in a world where the thorniest policy issues increasingly boil down to arguments over what the data mean. If you don’t understand statistics, you don’t know what’s going on — and you can’t tell when you’re being lied to.
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Activists propagate horror stories
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correlation is not causation. And individual stories don’t prove anythin
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our inability to grasp statistics — and the mother of it all, probability — makes us believe stupid things
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Statistics is the new grammar
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shared by Benno Hansen on 20 Jul 09 - Cached

Sports commentators will often argue the importance of scoring the first goal and often suggest that a team improves its chances of winning considerably by scoring it.
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calculating the probability of the first-goal team winning at discrete points in the match after the first goal is scored based on the number of minutes remaining in the game
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Team X is playing team Y. Team X scores first and there are T minutes left in regulation time.
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goal scoring follows the law of statistics known as a Poisson distribution
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From the first whistle, team X has a 50:50 chance of winning.
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shared by Benno Hansen on 01 Sep 14 - No Cached

shared by Benno Hansen on 13 Feb 14 - No Cached

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