Consider first what happened with the Kirk-Menendez sanctions bill, named for
the two
biggest beneficiaries of “pro-Israel” PACs closely associated
with AIPAC in the Congressional campaigns of 2010 and 2012, respectively. Introduced
on the eve of the Christmas recess, the bill then had 26 co-sponsors, equally
divided between Democrats and Republicans, giving it an attractive bipartisan
cast – the kind of bipartisanship that AIPAC has long sought to maintain
despite the group’s increasingly Likudist orientation and the growing
disconnect within the Democratic Party between its strongly pro-Israel elected
leadership and more skeptical base, especially its younger activists, both Jewish
and gentile. By the second week of January, it had accumulated an additional
33 co-sponsors, bringing the total to 59 and theoretically well within striking
distance of the magic 67 needed to override a presidential veto. At that point,
however, its momentum stalled as a result of White House pressure (including
warnings that a veto would indeed be cast); the alignment behind Obama of ten
Senate Committee chairs, including Carl Levin of the Armed Services Committee
and Dianne Feinstein of the Intelligence Committee; public denunciation of the
bill by key members of the foreign
policy elite; and a remarkably strong grassroots campaign by several reputable
national religious, peace, and human-rights groups (including, not insignificantly,
J Street and Americans for Peace Now), whose phone calls and emails to Senate
offices opposing the bill outnumbered those in favor by a factor of ten or more.