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The big question now is how loyal the armed forces are to Mubarak and what role, if any, they will play should the protests escalate.

There is a reason why a national unity government which includes the opposition has been so difficult to stitch together in Tunisia. It is because remnants of the old regime are trying to ride a tidal wave over which they have no control. It is only when they all go, and fresh elections held, that political calm will be restored.

If nothing else happens, the idea that the Arab world needs ageing dictators as a bulwark against the rising tide of Islamism has been holed below the water line.

only free elections will begin to address Egypt's political problems

the task of building a new political order that can provide democracy and development is, if anything, even more challenging than it was for the immediate post-colonial political elites