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Up until Tuesday, oil was crashing down toward $110 a barrel as demand growth estimates have been clipped. So what happened to peak oil? Nothing happened; peak oil should still be a concern. For a larger context on peak oil, see my June post 'Peak oil: are we there yet?' From where I sit, I see oil as having played a major role in creating the downturn we are now experiencing. Basically, oil prices rose to the point where we cried uncle, reduced our consumption accordingly, and the economy suffered as a result. Before 1973, the world had never see an oil shock. But, this is the 4th such oil shock since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 when Nixon ended the U.S. dollar peg to gold and ushered in an era of floating currencies. Methinks I see a connection.

The BusinessWeek story cited below, along with King Abdullah's April announcement that they will not be opening new fields, provides evidence that we are near - or perhaps even at - Peak Oil. 1. It may be political peaking;: perhaps the Saudi's could invest to increase production, but choose not to (an obviously sensible decision). 2. It may be geological peaking, if the Saudi's are unable to increase production. But whether geological or political peaking, the long-discussed event may be starting now.

Reuters reports that an executive of French oil company Total expects oil production to peak before the end of the next decade - and wants the company to move into nuclear power in the post-oil age (something Bucky Fuller predicted would be the next step for the oil industry) - Total sees nuclear energy for growth after peak oil. French oil and gas giant Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) is targeting nuclear energy to drive growth long after oil and gas output peak, a top executive said on Monday. "In the future, energy demand will be constrained by tight supply," Arnaud Chaperon, Total's senior vice president for electricity and new energies, said in a presentation to a nuclear energy conference in Qatar. "Oil and gas will still play a big role in the energy balance. But in the electrification of the world economy, nuclear will play a major role, together with the development of solar and other renewables ... That is why Total is very interested in developing nuclear and renewables."

"Stuart at Early Warning has a post on a study of the impact of rising fuel prices on different geographical regions in the US (which looks similar to a comparable study done in Australia a few years ago - The Impact Of Rising Oil Prices On Sydney Suburbs) - Peak Oil Stress Map. The map [below] is a first rough cut at where the stress of peak oil (or any oil shock) is likely to be greatest. It comes from taking county level data from the Census Quick Facts and extracting two variables: the average travel time to work (from the 2000 census), and the median household income (from 2008 data). The idea is that if average travel time is long, that probably indicates that people in that county need a lot of oil to run their cars. On the other hand, if income is low, they are probably going to have more trouble paying for that oil. So I divided the travel time by median income, and then rescaled that index by its own average and standard deviation to produce a map of where the problems are likely to be greatest. "

"The ongoing Gulf of Mexico oil disaster is bringing the mainstream media a little closer to the peak oil debate. It's been out there on the business pages for a while, but it is beginning to make its way into news pages - via comment columns, and in a roundabout way, of course. It's still at the flirtatious stage, but its beginning. It's a hot topic, and few mainstream writers are actually throwing their weight behind the concept of Hubbert's peak (M King Hubbert, left). Right now, they are mentioning peak oil to deny it, but doing so with words that clearly agree with the concepts behind the issue. Perhaps it's a coded way of informing people in the know that the writer is in on the bigger picture, but can't actually come out and say it. Or at least not right away."

Energy Bulletin's Bart Anderson has an interview in, of all places, a French cyberpunk journal - The future is Amish, not Mad Max: interview with Bart Anderson of EB. Laurent Courau: Your site puts forward the concept of "peak oil." Could you begin by reviewing this essential point for the readers of La Spirale? Bart Anderson: There is a limited amount of petroleum in the earth. After the easy deposits have been exploited, we go after deposits that are more difficult and expensive to develop (e.g. tar sands, deepwater and arctic oil). At a certain point - peak oil - the amount of oil produced reaches a maximum. Afterwards, less and less oil is produced. In this way oil production follows a more-or-less bell-shaped curve, Hubbert's Curve. The curve takes its name from the Shell Oil geoscientist, M. King Hubbert, who presented the idea in 1956 and predicted the peaking of U.S. oil production, which occurred in 1970.

On the subject of apocaphilia and reversalism, Tom Whipple's latest "peak oil crisis" column in the FCNP is heavy on doom - The Peak Oil Crisis: Civil Unrest. No mention of green new deals or rapid shifts to clean energy sources and transport systems to be found unfortunately - just talk about "involuntary changes" that people will need to make to their lifestyles that seems rather totalitarian to me (did all that time in the CIA make Tom start to think like the Soviets ?). Why not go for persuading people to make the necessary adaptive changes voluntarily ? We'll all end up with a better world in the end (rather than the locked down world of rationing and limited transport that some seem to think inevitable).

Two terms that definitely scare investors (at least those who don't know what implications both have on their portfolio) are Stagflation and Peak Oil. One (Stagflation) might be happening soon but could be avoided, while the other (Peak Oil) might not happen soon, but cannot be avoided.

The following is an article I prepared for the Peak Oil Review, which is produced by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. The United States was blessed with abundant reserves of crude petroleum, high quality and easily taken from the ground. Up until 1973, we were the world's biggest producer of crude oil, and even today remain the third biggest, ranking behind only Russia and Saudi Arabia.

The disconnect between peak oil concerns and the presidential race is almost total. As prices at the pump rise, each candidate is now talking about their so-called solutions to the problem. Despite clear new warning signs from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Nigeria that peak oil is nigh, the candidates remain unwaveringly oblivious to the true causes of rising fuel prices, preferring instead to dwell on irrelevant-actually, counterproductive-measures like suspending the federal gas tax during the summer months or taxing Big Oil. This is akin to putting a band-aid on a melanoma.

TomDispatch has a new article from Michael Klare on peak oil and America's upcoming energy challenges - America's Energy Crunch Comes Home. No other major power relies on getting so much of its energy from oil. Making that 40% figure especially daunting is this: the world supply of oil is about to contract. The competition for remaining supplies will then intensify, while most of what remains is located in inherently unstable regions, threatening to lead the U.S. into unceasing oil wars. Just how much of the world's untapped oil supply remains to be exploited, and how quickly we will reach a peak of sustainable daily world oil output, are matters of some contention, but recently the scope of debate on this question has narrowed appreciably.

The concept of peak oil started as a geological theory* that went like this: if you knew the amount of oil produced in the past, the rate at which it was produced, and roughly how much oil remained under the earth's surface, the theory could help you determine when oil production would likely start declining. Over the years however, proponents and critics alike recognized that more factors than just the size of oil resources and the ease of exploiting them would determine when world oil production would peak and plateau.

Peak Oil will soon generate problems for individuals and families around the globe: unemployment; bankruptcy; inability to pay for heating oil, higher education, mortgage, and rent etc; the need for family members to share residences and expenses; violent street crime even in previously safe neighborhoods; the separation of family members (due to high airfares, the high cost of gasoline, or gasoline rationing); and anxiety and depression.

Those of you who do not believe Peak Oil Theory should first make sure you fully understand it. According to this theory, after a reservoir has been depleted by half of its total volume, the output begins to plateau or remain constant for some unknown period. At some later time (which is unpredictable) the output begins a permanent decline of variable duration (which is also unpredictable) until the remaining quantity of oil is no longer economically feasible to extract with current technology. Therefore, Peak Oil Theory does not state that the earth is running out of oil per say. It states that the earth is running out of inexpensive oil, otherwise known as conventional oil - the high-grade oil that comes out by drilling on land and requires minimal refinement costs.

Perspectives and initiatives for local self-reliant living in the face of energy, climate, and economic uncertainty. In response to awakened Peak Oil awareness, Yuba Gals began producing the weekly 28-minute Peak Moment Conversations.In January 2006. They are hosted and produced by Janaia; directed and edited by Robyn.

With the stock market, and therefore the retirement savings of millions of US consumers, forcing financial writers to search their thesauruses for yet more synonyms for "unprecedented", it's as predictable as it is depressing that peak oil has fallen off the radar screen of so many. Gasoline is now selling at the stunning price of only $1.82/gallon, something few people not confined to a psych ward would have predicted six months ago. More to the point, it's seen by many individuals as "proof" that There Is No Oil Problem, There Wasn't and Oil Problem, and There Never Will Be An Oil Problem.

Summary: The bad news is that much of the good news about energy is wrong. Repeated so confidently by so many for so long, these fallacies have become a major obstacle to our preparation for peak oil. This post examines one such fallacy: that the world has massive reserves of unconventional oil, and that those will prevent peak oil. This post substantially expands to my replies in a discussion with M. Simon, lifted from the comments to "A powerful perspective on the candidates for President of the US". M. Simon posts actively on his blog, Power and Control, and at Classical Values- an influential libertarian weblog discussing politics, current affairs and pop culture (to which the Instapundit frequently links). M. Simon is an engineer, and involved in some cutting edge projects.

Since the beginning of the modern oil age in 1859, pessimists have warned that the oil wells would soon dry up or that oil production would peak and not be able to keep up with ever-increasing demand. Again and again, the pessimists have been proven wrong, often embarrassingly so, as science and technology have allowed more oil to be extracted from existing fields and from deposits in more challenging locations such as the Arctic and the deepest waters of the continental shelf. Indeed, oil production rates have increased, on average, by about 1.1 million barrels per day per year over the past 10 years.

The end of the fossil fuel era may end with a whimper, not a bang -- just with lines for gasoline that are too long. Consider these two pieces of unsettling data: (1) The number of cars on the road globally will hit 1 billion by 2011. (2) The world's oil will peak by 2015, according to the CEO of Shell.