Group items tagged

What's up with oil prices? Well, it's not speculators, and there's no relief in sight, meaning at least five more years of high prices with no easy fixes. The ugly truth? Peak oil isn't fringe anymore-it's going mainstream. That's the reading from the latest oil market report from the International Energy Agency, the rich-country energy watchdog. The IEA's latest x-ray of the oil market includes plenty of disturbing nuggets.

Some bicycle enthusiasts view the economic downturn as a good way to turn people on to the benefits of bike riding. Wallet Pop has a good example with this piece on low cost bike transport - Bike like it's 1929 with end-of-the-economy bicycle gear tips. Now that it's official, and all, that we're in a recession, it's even smarter to sell all your earthly gas-guzzling possessions and buy bikes. Many proponents of Peak Oil, and even generally conservative folks who are becoming decidedly alarmist, are predicting enormous increases in gas prices sometime in the next decade. Bike folk hope it will happen sooner.

Peak oil is just five years away, and we must start to plan now to avert a truly ruinous crisis If eight companies across a broad spectrum of UK industry had warned, five years ago, that a ruinous credit crunch would hit the global economy this year, might the government have taken the warning seriously? Might UK leadership in damage limitation have been proactive, rather than reactive? Could a softer landing and a faster recovery have been possible as a result?

The Economist has a look at some of the factors affecting oil production, warning "Oil prices have plunged. Another spike may be on its way" - Well prepared. WITH the price of crude mired at half the peak of $147 it reached in July, this may seem like an odd time to invest in oil wells. Despite trimming its output along with other members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in an effort to prop up prices, that is just what the United Arab Emirates plans to do. Short-term price movements, its oil minister insists, should not distract from the world's enduring thirst for oil. Indeed the collapse of oil prices, one of the few reasons around for economic cheer, may be setting the stage for another spike. Just now oilmen are focused on the rapidly slowing demand for their product. Since early October, reckons the boss of BP, a big oil firm, America's consumption of crude has fallen by perhaps 2m barrels a day, or about a tenth. Sales of cars in America fell even more steeply last month-by 32%. There is also gloomy news from emerging markets, which have been the driving force in the oil markets of late. Demand for oil is growing much more slowly in China and India, for example, and car sales are down in both countries. There is even talk of global oil demand falling next year, for the first time since 1991.

Oil Price Plunges from a Zenith In the first half of 2008 we saw oil climb to approach $150 a barrel amid the pundits' warning of oil rocketing to $200 a barrel and way beyond due to the phenomenon of Peak Oil. In the wake of those heady days we have now witnessed the slumping of oil prices to well under $100 a barrel into October. We have often heard that this is all within the context of declining oil supplies and escalating demand due to the rapid economic development taking hold in large regions and populations of earth, for example like in China and India, in addition to the maintenance of development in the more developed countries like the USA and Europe. The graph below illustrated this rise and fall of oil prices, and particularly the fall in prices from an all time zenith of a few months ago (Williams, 2008).

Drawing parallels with the current financial meltdown, Matthew Simmons, the CEO of Simmons & Company International, expresses his alarm about gasoline stocks being the lowest in several decades and refinery production down following recent hurricanes. He warns that if there were a run on the "energy bank" by everyone topping off their gasoline tanks, the U.S. would be out of fuel in three days, and grocery shelves largely emptied in a week. In an interview plus excerpts from his presentation at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO-USA) conference on September 22, 2008, Matt highlights the risks and vulnerabilities in the finished oil products system, and answers audience questions.

I've been a Hubbert Schizophrenic for the past seven years. Perhaps you are one too - the diagnosis is easy. The principal symptom is the attempt by the patient to lead two lives, one involving the Peak and its consequences. One of those two lives is the "normal" one, and includes a future predicated on a series of uneventful jobs ending with a decent collection of pensions, and a house with a half acre of grass and the occasional bunch of dark purple iris at the borders, and plentiful ice creams for many Junes to come.

I now believe that the hypothesis of a near or medium-term peak in the world's oil supply is confirmed beyond any reasonable doubt. A shift in emphasis that speaks to reducing our demand for oil and examining alternatives to oil is now required. I will be taking that road in the future, leaving specific concerns about the oil supply behind.

Peak oil theory states that oil will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output. It is estimated that approximately half of all oil...

This year's conference, enhanced through a partnership between Community Solutions and Upland Hills Ecological Awareness Center, is organized around Community Solutions executive director Pat Murphy's just published book, Plan C: Community Survival Strategies for Peak Oil and Climate Change. The book, and this conference, "point to the life we must lead, if we are to survive on this planet."

What are the real implications of peak oil in a culture where common sense has been suppressed by consumerism? A lot of parenting is about common sense. Deep down as parents, we realize that if a child gets showered with gifts, they become unappreciative. If they receive things because they stamp their feet and scream, that behavior will continue because it has been rewarded. In the last few decades however, common sense seems to be on the decline and its commonality is certainly fading. Let me give you an example. When I was growing up, my parents would have a birthday party for me with perhaps five or six friends at maximum. There would be sandwiches, cake, balloons and big back yard in which to play. There might be a treasure hunt or a simple game, if my mother was feeling energetic. For the large part though, I was instructed to entertain my friends on my own, hardly an onerous task. The end result was an enjoyable afternoon and a few small gifts for me to play with, once everyone else had gone home.

This is a guest post from Max Arturo Alcala Sainz. Currently, the list of academic institutions offering relevant and up-to-date information and courses geared to confront the imminent energy slope is awfully short. If you have ever tried to enroll in your local university for some hands-on Peak Oil learning experience, you may have found yourself disappointed in knowing that no such course is offered. Even in certain high-level economics courses that scrape at energy depletion and natural resources, you will probably be able to teach your professor a thing or two (if you are a keen reader of TOD). :)

Richard Heinberg, author of "Peak Everything", reviews the accelerating events since mid-2007, including the credit crunch and fossil fuel price volatility, noting that we've missed most of the best opportunities to manage collapse. He asks, "how far down the staircase of complexity will our global civilization have to go until we're sustainable?

Peak Oil blog and website

The energy dynamics of computing. Includes fascinating insight into the energy requirements of biological computing -- e.g., brain power. Fantastic, a must-read.

Peak oil isn't getting much airtime in the mainstream press lately, but David Strahan has a column in The Independent - A Government still addicted to petrol. "All targets and no trousers" seemed to be the gist of the reaction from environmentalists to last week's Budget. Greens welcomed the introduction of new, legally binding, carbon-reduction goals but attacked the lack of a clear road map showing how they could be achieved. Some applauded policies such as the extra subsidy for offshore wind and investment in building efficiency, but attacked overall funding of £1.4bn as miserly in comparison to the enormity of the climate crisis and recent financial bailouts.

Articles in the mainstream press about peak oil are pretty rare these days, but the SMH has one on the subject that never mentions the phrase (and flippantly dismisses Iraqi oil on the way) - Enjoy the cheap petrol, while it lasts. With demand on the rise, existing wells drying up and a dearth of big discoveries, the oil price is only headed in one direction. IN July 2008, the oil price hit a record high of $US147 a barrel. In its journey from the lows of 1998 to the highs of last year, many reasons were put forward for its ascent. Explanations included a so-called "war premium" , "a terrorist premium", hurricanes and evil speculators - the list of things and people to blame for the rise in oil prices was long. As the price rose, calls were made by political leaders and interest groups for oil producers to lift production and for a cut in taxes on oil and petroleum. Accusations of price gouging and profiteering by oil companies and producers soon emerged.

"As the Deepwater Horizon rig disaster continues to unfold, the peak oil community has a "teachable moment" in which it can illuminate the reality of our energy plight. The public has had a crash course in the challenges of offshore oil, and learned a whole new vocabulary. They are more aware than ever that the days of cheap and easy oil are gone. What they do not yet grasp are the challenges in transitioning from fossil fuels to renewables. The Greens (anti-fossil fuel agitators) want to end offshore drilling, but don't realize that their alternatives are in the wrong scale or the wrong time frame to make a difference. The Browns (the fossil fuel industry) are in full damage-control mode while rapidly losing the public trust. Meanwhile, the politicians are focused on who's to blame and who will pay, while skirting the fundamental problem of our addiction to oil."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBC2YqFuZ8k From the people who brought you Economic Collapse... It's another Wall Street Dip Shit! Meet Mr. Stephen Moore of the Wall Street Journal, Heritage Foundation, and Cato Institute [Stephen Moore] "I'm not a believer in peak oil, I'm a big believer in the Julian Simon idea that these [oil] are infinite resources, not finite resources. And the reason for that is that oil comes from the human mind, it doesn't come from the ground! [T. Boone Pickens] I don't understand, Steve, when you said oil is not from the ground but it's in the human mind. What does that mean? [Stephen Moore] Well what I mean is that it's human ingenuity that uh...it used to be that people first discovered oil it was just this black gloop that came out of the ground and nobody had any use for it...Do you agree with that?

So burn this into your mind: between 2007 and 2008 the IEA radically changed its assessment. Until this year's report, the agency mocked people who said that oil supplies might peak. In the foreword to a book it published in 2005, its executive director, Claude Mandil, dismissed those who warned of this event as "doomsayers". "The IEA has long maintained that none of this is a cause for concern," he wrote. "Hydrocarbon resources around the world are abundant and will easily fuel the world through its transition to a sustainable energy future."(7) In its 2007 World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted a rate of decline in output from the world's existing oilfields of 3.7% a year(8). This, it said, presented a short-term challenge, with the possibility of a temporary supply crunch in 2015, but with sufficient investment any shortfall could be covered. But the new report, published last month, carried a very different message: a projected rate of decline of 6.7%, which means a much greater gap to fill(9).