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"Thomas Frey is a futurist. It's his job to predict the future by identifying emerging global trends. What Frey does might sound a little like fortune telling but spotting new trends is an important way of ensuring your business is well positioned for the future. Frey spoke to SmartCompany from the United States ahead of his upcoming visit to Australia for the Ci2012 conference. Here are his seven predictions for the future:"

In the mid-1990s, productivity growth accelerated sharply in the U.S. economy. In this paper, we identify several other industry-level changes that have occurred during the same time and argue that they are consistent with an increased use of information technology (IT). We use case studies to illustrate how IT has enabled firms to more rapidly replicate improved business processes throughout an organization, thereby not only increasing productivity but also market share and market value. We then empirically document a substantial increase in turbulence starting in the 1990s, as measured by the average intra-industry rank change in sales, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), and other metrics. In particular, we find that IT-intensive industries account for most of this increase in turbulence, especially after 1995. In addition, we find that IT-intensive industries became more concentrated than non IT-intensive industries after 1995, reversing the previous trend. The combination of increased turbulence and concentration, especially among IT-intensive industries, is consistent with recent theories of hypercompetition as well as Schumpeterian creative destruction. We conclude that the improved ability of firms to replicate business innovations has changed the nature of business competition.

The next big trend is simple: to simplify.\nThis is not news to anyone who's been around the track a few times. An emphasis on focus, speed, streamlining processes, and finding common platforms has characterized the best companies for years. The Internet has helped cut out intermediaries and enabled direct connections, instant feedback, and more information transparency. In design, sleek looks have replaced ornamentation.

In a competitive business environment, safeguarding the continuity of the company often requires starting initiatives that will result in a fundamental discontinuity for the social structure of the organisation. Do we have a choice?

Trust is a business perennial-from the days when chickens were traded for cowrie shells until we start trading with extraterrestrial races, trust has been and always will be the central factor in business relationships. However in the networked world there are three vital shifts in the nature and role of trust.