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feng37

Unrestricted Warfare | Adbusters Culturejammer Headquarters - 0 views

  • The most interesting thesis is the idea that China could use international law as a weapon, or “lawfare” for short. The authors argue that citizens of democracies increasingly demand that their countries uphold international rules, particularly ones that govern human rights and the conduct of war. Governments are, therefore, constrained by regional or worldwide organizations, such as the European Union, ASEAN, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the WTO and the United Nations. The authors argue that China should copy the European model of using international law to pin down the USA: “there are far-sighted big powers which have clearly already begun to borrow the power of supra-national, multinational, and non-state players to redouble and expand their own influence.” They think that China could turn the United Nations and regional organizations into an amplifier of the Chinese worldview – discouraging the USA from using its might in campaigns like the Iraq War.
  • Beijing has been willing to allow the Organization of Islamic States to take the lead in weakening the new Human Rights Council. This subtle diplomacy has been devastatingly effective – contributing to a massive fall in US influence: in 1995 the USA won 50.6 percent of the votes in the United Nations general assembly; by 2006, the figure had fallen to just 23.6 percent. On human rights, the results are even more dramatic: China’s win-rate has rocketed from 43 percent to 82 percent, while the USA’s has tumbled from 57 per cent to 22 percent. The New York Times’ UN correspondent James Traub has detected a paradigm shift in the United Nations’ operations: “it’s a truism that the Security Council can function only insofar as the United States lets it. The adage may soon be applied to China as well.” Traub may be right. China’s capacity to influence the United Nations is increasing, and soon we may be complaining about Chinese behavior on big policy issues
Jean Chen

通胀压力下的中美差异 - 0 views

  • 美国人感受到了通胀,但通胀的冲击并不强烈。2008年1月美国CPI同比增长了4.3%,但主要体现在能源上涨19.6%,其次是和能源相关的交通上涨了9.4%,食品价格上涨为4.9%。通胀在日常生活中,尤其是衣食住中的反应并不显著,美国人也并不因此忧心忡忡。
  • 而同样面对通胀的中国,1月CPI同比上涨7.1%,其中食品价格同比上涨18.2%。猪肉等必须品的价格的大幅变动已严重影响普通人的日常生活。和通胀一起爬坡的是中国人的通胀恐慌。这是中国通胀阻击战中的大难题:民众预期。仅就此一端,中国这场通胀之战的艰巨性,非美国“同侪”可比。
  • 2005年,美林的房地产经济学家David Rosenberg提出,当房地产市值超过GDP的140%时,当地就进入“警惕区”。经济学者谢国忠搜集的数据,美国家庭与非盈利组织持有的房产价值,在2007年二季度达到了GDP的168%,而历史平均水平约为100%。在之前的房产泡沫中,这一比例从未超过140%。那么如果需要三年时间使市场正常化,而每年名义GDP增长6%(包括2%的实际增长率和4%的通胀率),房产价格仍 需下降30%,才能使其价值回复到100%GDP的水平。4%的通胀率是无法挽救美国抵押贷款者的。因此美联储完全可能得容忍更高的,甚至两位数的通货膨胀率。
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  • 和有习惯储蓄的中国人不同,美国人习惯靠信用卡债务生活。美国人面对的是债务缩水,中国人面对的是财富流失。而且被美国视为最新的崛起对手的的中国1.6万亿的外汇储备基本都以美元债券的形式持有,这如同中国人向每个美国公民贷款5000美元。放开通胀的猛虎,正在大口啃掉这笔债务。2007年底高达17万亿元人民币的中国人的储蓄也正遭受侵蚀。
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