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Prognosis (Outlook) The rate of basal cell skin cancer returning is about 1% with Mohs surgery, and up to 10% for other forms of treatment. Smaller basal cell carcinomas are less likely to come back than larger ones. Basal cell carcinoma rarely spreads to other parts of the body. You should follow-up with your doctor as recommended and regularly examine your skin once a month, using a mirror to check hard-to-see places. Call your doctor if you notice any suspicious skin changes.

Superficial Basal Cell Carcinoma Aldara™ cream is indicated for the topical treatment of biopsy-confirmed, primary superficial basal cell carcinoma (sBCC) in immunocompetent adults, with a maximum tumor diameter of 2.0 cm, located on the trunk (excluding anogenital skin), neck, extremities (excluding hands and feet), only when surgical methods are medically less appropriate and patient follow-up can be reasonably assured.  The histological diagnosis of superficial basal cell carcinoma should be established for other types of basal cell carcinomas, including nodular, morpheaform (fibrosing or sclerosing) types.

Recurrence rate of superficial basal cell carcinoma following treatment with imiquimod 5% cream: conclusion of a 5-year long-term follow-up study in Europe. by Harald Gollnick

The precise mechanism of the anti-tumor effect of imiquimod in BCC is not known. It has been postulated that ultraviolet radiation induces mutations in the tumor-suppressor genes and alters the immuno-surveillance, so that tumor cells escape from cytotoxic T cells and apoptosis.[1] Th-2 cytokines, that downregulate tumor surveillance, are raised in BCC.[1],[5] Imiquimod acts on toll-like receptor-7 (TLR-7) present on dendritic cells, macrophages and monocytes and induces expression of interferons, Th-1 cytokines (IL-1, IL-6, IL-10 and IL-12), tumor necrosis factor-a and G-CSF, thereby counteracting Th2 cytokines and promoting tumor surveillance.[1],[5] It also enhances the activity of natural killer cells and epidermal Langerhans' cells. The tumor regression is achieved probably by induction of Fas receptors on the tumor cells resulting in their apoptosis.[10]

Aldara® can eradicate 64% of low-risk nodular basal cell carcinomas.

Imiquimod cream (Aldara) for superficial basal cell carcinoma

We found that 5% imiquimod cream is an effective treatment option for superficial and nodular basal cell carcinomas, giving a clearance rate of 89.5% at an average of 39 months of follow up.

FDA-approval:  * Biopsy-confirmed, primary superficial basal cell carcinoma (sBCC) in immunocompetent adults; maximum tumor diameter of 2.0 cm on trunk, neck, or extremities (excluding hands and feet), only when surgical methods are medically less appropriate and patient follow-up can be reasonably assured (1.2)

PDF, Free full text article... We found that 5% imiquimod cream is aneffective treatment option for superficial and nodularbasal cell carcinomas, giving a clearance rate of89.5% at an average of 39 months of follow up.   Dr Yin Vun, Siller Medical, 9th Floor, SilvertonPlace, 101 Wickham Terrace, Brisbane, Qld 4000, Australia.

Raasch B. Clinical, Cosmetic and Investigational Dermatology. 9 June 2009.  There is reasonable evidence that the use of imiquimod for small (<2 cm) superficial BCC that occur other than on the face provides  outcomes only marginally less satisfactory t

There is reasonable evidence that the use of imiquimod for small (<2 cm) superficial BCC that occur other than on the face provides outcomes only marginally less satisfactory than surgery. There would be a place for imiquimod in treating patients with frequent multiple primary lesions when access to surgery is difficult or where clinical judgment may be influenced by patient factors as reported in some of the studies, eg, where patients may have contraindications to surgery.  It was noted that if recurrences occurred in this study they mostly occurred during the first 9 months after the end of treatment. The initial response was therefore predictive of long-term outcome so these authors recommend and encourage continued monitoring of skin lesions.

To date one long-term study indicates a treatment success rate of 78%-81% and that initial response is a predictor of long-term outcome. Recurrences tend to occur within the first year after treatment. Future research will compare this preparation to the gold standard treatment for superficial BCC - surgical excision.

The initial sBCC clearance rate was 90% (12-week post treatment), whereas the proportion of subjects who were clinically clear at 2 years (current time point) was estimated to be 79.4%. 

Clinical clearance rate at 1 and 2 years were 89% and 85%, respectively.