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Article for BIR - June 2015 issue Heuristics, the science of decision making.

For a fascinating item relevant to Prediction Markets, listen to thisBBC Radio 4 'More or Less' item on The Recognition Heuristic' (from 9 mins 55 secs to 16 mins 47 secs).

For a fascinating item relevant to Prediction Markets, listen to this 'More or Less' item on The Recognition Heuristic' (from 9 mins 55 secs to 16 mins 47 secs).

In this paper, we survey a number of different knowledge management strategies and a range of driving forces for knowledge management activities. We synthesise these using an extended version of an existing "KM spectrum"; apply a knowledge engineering approach to provide further guidance for the KM spectrum; and then describe a simple classification approach that links the driving forces to KM strategies, using a number of published heuristics. Finally, a case study is presented in which we apply our approach and discuss its usefulness.

"Knowledge can only be volunteered it cannot be conscripted. You can't make someone share their knowledge, because you can never measure if they have. You can measure information transfer or process compliance, but you can't determine if a senior partner has truly passed on all their experience or knowledge of a case. We only know what we know when we need to know it. Human knowledge is deeply contextual and requires stimulus for recall. Unlike computers we do not have a list-all function. Small verbal or nonverbal clues can provide those ah-ha moments when a memory or series of memories are suddenly recalled, in context to enable us to act. When we sleep on things we are engaged in a complex organic form of knowledge recall and creation; in contrast a computer would need to be rebooted. In the context of real need few people will withhold their knowledge. A genuine request for help is not often refused unless there is literally no time or a previous history of distrust. On the other hand ask people to codify all that they know in advance of a contextual enquiry and it will be refused (in practice its impossible anyway). Linking and connecting people is more important than storing their artifacts. Everything is fragmented. We evolved to handle unstructured fragmented fine granularity information objects, not highly structured documents. People will spend hours on the internet, or in casual conversation without any incentive or pressure. However creating and using structured documents requires considerably more effort and time. Our brains evolved to handle fragmented patterns not information. Tolerated failure imprints learning better than success. When my young son burnt his finger on a match he learnt more about the dangers of fire than any amount of parental instruction cold provide. All human cultures have developed forms that allow stories of failure to spread without attribution of blame. Avoidance of failure has greater evolutionary advantage than imitatio

Type of cognitive bias categorised into for main problem areas.

Common decision biases, with some nice graphics

The Dunning-Kruger effect, named after David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University, occurs where people fail to adequately assess their level of competence - or specifically, their incompetence - at a task and thus consider themselves much more competent than everyone else. This lack of awareness is attributed to their lower level of competence robbing them of the ability to critically analyse their performance, leading to a significant overestimate of themselves.