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Frank Gallagher

Yasin on the Election - 0 views

  • As of this writing, there are at least half a dozen campaign headquarters that are currently semi-active or not active at all but are all awaiting the go-ahead from their would-be conservative candidates. Amongst them are those of the current mayor of Tehran, one that belongs to a former foreign minister, one belonging to a current cabinet minister, one to a recently fired minister and one to the former head of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohsen Rezaii. 
  • who has been one of the most trenchant critics of Ahmadinejad government from the right flank. A few months ago, he put forth the idea of an inclusive coalition government, one that would encompass many of the moderates and a few of the radicals. The
  • , that Ahmadinejad's re-election is a foregone conclusion
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Is it really that bad?
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • He led Iranian forces against Saddam's armies during the 8-year war and is currently the secretary of the influential Expedience Council. 
  • n a straight conservative-reformist contest between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi, Ahmadinejad is expected to win between 13 to 17 million votes against 9 to 12 million for Mousavi, assuming that the second reformist candidate leaves the race.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Where does this data come from?
  • many Rightist leaders - particularly in the Revolutionary Guards and its paramilitary affiliate, the Basij - have on numerous occasions warned that they would under no circumstances tolerate such a scenario, i.e., even if Mousavi technically wins the election in the first round, he would never be allowed to actually win the presidential seat. 
  • Of the 17 million votes cast, roughly 7 million came from the traditional bloc of conservative voters who unfailingly vote for Rightist candidates. The rest, which was quite a novel development for Iran, came from the economic grievances of the lower classes who were under the impression that Ahmadinejad was a champion of the poor or an anti-corruption crusader.  
  •  
    Cant agree with his prognosis... there's no guarantee that anyone beyond the 7m 'bankers' will vote for Ahmadinejad.
Frank Gallagher

Asia Times Column on Neo-Cons and Haqani - 0 views

  • Amid talk that the recent election was a silent coup carried out by elements of the hardline Revolutionary Guard after eight years of reformist rule, Western embassies have been scrambling to understand what the Hojjatieh stands for and to what extent the influence of its teachings will be felt in the new government's domestic and foreign policies.
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Ascribing something they dont understand to a liekely looking organisation from the past? Ahmadinejad and Mezbah-Yazdi's chiliastic ideology is hardly consistent with Hojjatieh's traditionalism. Not convinced.
  • The Islamic society he belonged to at Alm-u Sanat University where he attended was an extreme traditional and fundamentalist group that contained a large number of students from the provinces and maintained grass-roots links with the Hojjatieh. The society's anti-leftism also chimes with reports that Ahmadinejad was pushing for a takeover of the Soviet Embassy alongside or instead of the US compound in Tehran during the 1979 revolution.
  • Haqqani theological school
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • Grand Ayatollah Saanei
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      To be fair, no-one listens to Sana'i.
  • Baztab
    • Frank Gallagher
       
      Run by anti-Ahmadinejad conservatives.
  •  
    Slightly alarmist. probably trying to explain something they cant see properly with reference to something more obvious. Good background on Haqani though.
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