GARP : Global Association of Risk Professionals - 0 views
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Karl Wabst on 25 Nov 09"Bankers are playing with fire by increasing risk when taxpayer tolerance with financial bailouts has worn perilously thin, the International Monetary Fund warned. Managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn reckons bankers may be in the throes of a "Mardi Gras" party of renewed speculation ahead of a looming regulatory crackdown. Yet the return of their old habits is dangerous. If a new financial crisis occurred in a few years" time, the public would be unwilling to support another round of massive bailouts, he told the Confederation of British Industry. Democracy itself could be threatened if banks went back to taxpayers with their caps in their hands. "In an atmosphere of increasing optimism, we see signs of old habits coming back. Risk-taking is on the rise," said Strauss-Kahn. "Right now, regulatory uncertainty is throwing up some perverse incentives. For example, it might be encouraging a risk-taking culture -- a Mardi Gras effect whereby financial institutions party now in expectation of lean times to come. "Clearly, this is dangerous, not least for emerging markets. And we may run out of time -- if we wait too long to implement these reforms, it might be too late." A second wave of rescues may simply not get through national legislatures, he added: "The political reaction would be very strong, putting some democracies at risk." IMF figures show the aftershocks of the 2008 crisis are far from over, with firms recognising only half of their losses worldwide. Yet despite the fragility of the financial sector, there is mounting evidence that traders are making hay before tougher regulatory standards come into force. Investment banking profits have soared this year, as firms make the most of ultra-low interest rates, money-printing operations and huge government bond issuance programmes. Strauss-Kahn argued countries need to act quickly to remove "regulatory uncertainty" -- ensuring bankers do not make the most of the current confusion over future standards