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Gene Ellis

Leading German Economist Peter Bofinger: 'Germany Has a Vital Interest in Ensuring Iris... - 0 views

  • However, Irish companies and banks are very highly indebted to foreign banks -- three times more than the Greeks.
  • According to Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, German banks are Ireland's biggest creditors, to the tune of €166 billion ($226 billion), and that includes hundreds of short-term loans to Irish banks. How dangerous is the Irish crisis for Germany?
  • The situation is very dangerous. The German government has a vital interest in ensuring the solvency of the Irish state and its banks.
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  • Well, let's put it this way: If a grandmother is lying in hospital and her family is already looking for a headstone -- does that create trust?
  • The arrears that Irish debtors owe to foreign banks amount to around 320 percent of Ireland's gross domestic product. One has to ask oneself if the Irish state would ever be in a position to meet such huge commitments.
  • I'm not saying that the idea of creditors sharing in the risk is fundamentally wrong.
Gene Ellis

Euro-Zone Banks Cut Back Lending - WSJ.com - 0 views

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    !!!!!
Gene Ellis

Eurocrisis: on towards total catastrophe - Mail Online - M E Synon's blog - 0 views

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    "catastrophe This is an edited version of my column in Monday's Irish Daily Mail -- "
Gene Ellis

Greece to Slash Benefits Paid to Retired Civil Servants:Union Group - WSJ.com - 0 views

  • After meeting with Greek Labor and Social Security Minister Yiannis Vroutsis, Adedy cited the minister as telling them that Greece's coalition government plans to slash the payments by 22.7% after having already reduced the amount by 20%.
  • "I cannot accept the financing of the fund's deficits from the state budget by either imposing new taxes or additional social security contributions on the new generation of workers so that older workers can receive sums that are not in line with their contributions," said Mr. Vroutsis.
Gene Ellis

ECB Raises Pressure on Greece - WSJ.com - 0 views

  • FRANKFURT—The European Central Bank said it would reject Greek government bonds as collateral for its normal lending operations beginning Wednesday,
  • Government bonds and other debt securities backed by Greece "will become for the time being ineligible for use as collateral" in the ECB's monetary policy operations, the bank said in a statement.
  • Greek banks, which are largely shut out of private markets for financing, depend critically on cheap ECB loans to meet their daily funding needs. In June, Greek banks tapped the ECB and Greece's central bank for a combined €136 billion ($166 billion) in loans through normal refinancing operations and emergency credit, an amount roughly equal to two-thirds of the country's gross domestic product.
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  • Banks can still access emergency funds through the Greek central bank, but at a higher interest rate than normal ECB loans. The credit risk stays on Greece's books and isn't spread throughout the 17-member currency bloc,
  • It is the second time the ECB declined to accept Greek bonds as collateral. The first was in February, after Athens imposed steep losses on private creditors in a debt restructuring. That suspension ended after a little more than an week, when the ECB received guarantees from euro-zone governments that Greek bonds posted to the ECB as collateral would be repaid.
  • For banks, which are already under intense pressure, it means that they will have to resort to emergency liquidity assistance which will lend them with a higher rate.It is bad news and all we can hope for is that it won't last for long," a senior Greek banker said.
Gene Ellis

A Declining Euro Can't Cure All Ills - WSJ.com - 0 views

  • but what would in normal times be a boon for the region may not help as much now, experts say.
  • Before the crisis, actions such as the European Central Bank rate cuts two weeks ago would have had a twofold effect in reviving the economy: Banks would have passed the lower rate on to their clients, while foreign-exchange markets would have marked the currency down, giving exporters better chances to sell their products abroad.
  • In today's polarized euro zone, it isn't that simple. For one thing, tThere is no certainty that euro-zone banks will pass on the cut in borrowing costs.
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  • Even if they did, he explained, the euro zone's problems are now so acute that few companies seem to want to borrow.
  • Mario Boselli, chairman of the Italian Chamber of Fashion, frets that larger emerging economies still account for only 10% of total Italian exports. "This is not enough" to offset the weakness in developed economies, he says.
  • Both Mr. Boselli and Philip Halpin, an adviser to the Irish Exporters' Association, say the euro would have to fall as low as $1.10 (from about $1.23 currently), to produce a robust export-led recovery.
  • Ludovic Subran, chief economist at French trade-credit insurer Euler Hermes, warns that might not be enough. Such a depreciation would have little effect in France because high taxes and rigid labor costs reduce the potential benefits, he says.
  • Any euro-zone economy would benefit from a drop in the euro to the extent that it can redirect more resources to external markets. But the willingness and ability of businesses to do that differs across the region. Nadio Delai, chairman of Italian research and consultancy firm Ermeneia, say a host of smaller, less prestigious Italian shoe and textile companies have started to export to emerging markets, riding the coattails of more famous names.
Gene Ellis

Greek Bank Withdrawals Accelerate - WSJ.com - 0 views

  • "As we approach the last few days before the elections I expect deposit withdrawals to rise further," he added. "And I wouldn't be surprised if by Friday we saw outflows of €1 billion to €1.5 billion."
  • Since the start of Greece's debt crisis in late 2009, Greece's banks have lost about one-third of their deposit base as nervous savers have taken their money out of the banks and either sent it abroad, or else stashed it away for safekeeping.
  • In the past two years, deposit outflows have generally averaged between €2 billion and €3 billion a month, but have spiked during periods of political uncertainty.
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  • Faced with Greece's increasingly bleak prospects, Crédit Agricole SA is making contingency plans to abandon its troubled Greek bank in the event of Greece leaving the euro zone, according to a person with direct knowledge of the plans, in the first concrete sign of a foreign company signaling it could walk away from its Greek assets.
  • According to the senior banker, the current rate of deposit outflows--of €1 billion or less per day–remains "manageable" since the banks keep large cash buffers on hand to deal with the withdrawals.
Gene Ellis

Has the U.S. Economy Been Permanently Damaged? : The New Yorker - 0 views

  • Although the study uses some sophisticated statistical methods, its basic point is straightforward: in the long term, economic output (G.D.P.) is constrained by the quantity and the quality of economic inputs (labor, capital, and technology). If the growth rate and quality of these inputs decline, the potential growth rate of G.D.P. will fall, too—it’s just a matter of arithmetic.
  • With hiring rates down, many workers have given up searching for jobs and have dropped out of the labor force.
  • With budgets tight, corporations and government departments have cut back on investments in new plants and machinery, computer hardware and software, and research and development.
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  • The authors come up with a variety of numbers, including one that has received a lot of attention: potential G.D.P.—broadly speaking, the level of G.D.P. consistent with stable inflation—“is currently about 7 percent below the trajectory it appeared to be on prior to 2007.” According to the latest figures from the Commerce Department, the G.D.P. is now close to seventeen trillion dollars, and seven per cent of that figure is $1.2 trillion. This is a lot of money to have gone missing, especially if it will never be recovered. Hence Krugman’s dire conclusion: “By tolerating high unemployment we have inflicted huge damage on our long-run prospects …. What passes these days for sound policy is in fact a form of economic self-mutilation, which will cripple America for many years to come.”
  • As well as figuring out the current level of potential G.D.P., the authors estimate its growth rate. This is the more important figure, because it’s what determines living standards over the long term
  • In the period from 2000 to 2007, the paper says the average potential growth rate of G.D.P. was 2.6 per cent.
  • For 2012, the authors estimate the potential growth rate at only 1.3 per cent.
  • In the nineteen-eighties, Larry Summers and Olivier Blanchard, who is now the chief economist of the I.M.F., resurrected the idea and gave it a new name, which they borrowed from engineering: hysteresis. Blanchard and Summers examined hysteresis in Europe, where high rates of unemployment have long been a problem.
  • The good news is that things aren’t quite as bad as the figures in the Fed paper might suggest. If we can get policy right and sharply increase the level of over-all demand in the economy, most of the damage done in the past five years is reversible.
  • At the moment, sadly, there is no prospect of any more fiscal stimulus, let alone a war-sized one, and the onus is falling on the Fed to gee up the economy.
Gene Ellis

Europe Haggles Over New Rules Aimed at Saving Fish Stocks - WSJ.com - 0 views

  • Fishermen currently discard nearly a quarter of Europe's total catch on average, and as much as 70% of the hauls in some areas, European Commission data show
  • "The law has been made by someone who doesn't know fisheries," said fisherman Geert Luickx as he painted his boat here in this North Sea port. Without financial assistance, more crew, and a bigger boat, he said, he won't be able to comply with the new law.
  • Commission data show 80% of stocks in the Mediterranean, including swordfish, and 47% of stocks in the Atlantic, including whiting off Scotland's western coast, are being exploited at levels that will lead to extinction.
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  • Much of this unwanted catch will likely be sold to fish farmers to feed high-value fish like salmon.
  • though there are no legally binding targets for rebuilding fishing stocks.
  • How to enforce the new discards law is also under debate. Installing video cameras on all vessels or employing observers to ensure fisherman follow the law has been proposed, but nothing yet has been settled. "We do not have the resources for this kind of enforcement,
  • Organizations notes that Norway—which, along with Iceland, is one of two non-EU nations to ban discards—took 20 years to eliminate them.
Gene Ellis

Suez Isn't the Real Crisis for Oil Prices - WSJ.com - 0 views

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    "BY LIAM DENNING Oil bulls are misreading the wisdom of crowds. Near-month U.S. crude-oil futures jumped above $100 a barrel Wednesday, ostensibly because of mass protests in Egypt. But it is worth remembering that Egypt is a net oil importer, not exporter. As for the Suez Canal, net traffic of oil and refined products-that is, the difference between northbound and southbound transit-amounted to roughly 101,000 barrels a day in the first quarter, according to the Suez Canal Authority. That is all of 0.1% of global demand. Egypt's Suez-Mediterranean"
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    "BY LIAM DENNING Oil bulls are misreading the wisdom of crowds. Near-month U.S. crude-oil futures jumped above $100 a barrel Wednesday, ostensibly because of mass protests in Egypt. But it is worth remembering that Egypt is a net oil importer, not exporter. As for the Suez Canal, net traffic of oil and refined products-that is, the difference between northbound and southbound transit-amounted to roughly 101,000 barrels a day in the first quarter, according to the Suez Canal Authority. That is all of 0.1% of global demand. Egypt's Suez-Mediterranean"
Gene Ellis

Shipping Boom: Hamburg's Port Sees Fruits of German Upturn - SPIEGEL ONLINE - 0 views

  • Shipping Boom: Hamburg's Port Sees Fruits of German Upturn
Gene Ellis

The Quality of Jobs: The New Normal and the Old Normal - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Despite 42 consecutive months of gains in private-sector employment, the unemployment rate is still at 7.3 percent; in December 2007 it was only 4.6 percent. The current unemployment rate is higher now than in 2007 across all age, education, occupation, gender and ethnic groups.
  • That’s despite the fact that about four million workers have left the labor force, driving the labor force participation rate to a historic low
  • Although the share of the long-term unemployed has fallen from its peak of 45 percent in 2011 to 38 percent today, it is still far above its 2001-7 average. And about eight million people are working part-time for “economic reasons,”
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  • 60 percent of the net job losses occurred in middle-income occupations with median hourly wages of $13.84 to $21.13. In contrast, these occupations have accounted for less than a quarter of the net job gains in the recovery, while low-wage occupations with median hourly wages of $7.69 to $13.83 have accounted for more than half of these gains.
  • Over the last year, more than 40 percent of job growth has been in low-paying sectors including retail, leisure/hospitality (hotels and restaurants) and temporary help agencies.
  • Based on history, what’s distinctive about this recovery is its sluggish pace, not the composition of its jobs.
  • The economy’s growth rate has been less than half the rate of previous recoveries and the employment losses in the Great Recession were more than twice as large as those in previous recessions.
  • What is distinctive during this recovery relative to earlier ones is the growing disparity in wages across sectors, a trend that was apparent long before the Great Recession.
  • Since then, however, wage growth has fallen far short of productivity growth, and that’s true for workers regardless of education, occupation, gender or race.
  • But technological change and the globalization it has enabled have played major roles, and these driving forces have probably strengthened during the recovery.
  • Jobs that are routine, that do not involve manual tasks and that do not need to be done near the customer are being replaced by computers and automation or are being outsourced to low-cost workers in other countries.
  • According to another study, the top 1 percent of households captured 65 percent of real family income gains (including realized capital gains) between 2002 and 2007 and 95 percent of the gains between 2009 and 2012. In 2012, the top decile claimed more than 50 percent of income, the highest share ever.
Gene Ellis

New Hurdle for Resolving Euro Crisis: Constitutions - WSJ.com - 0 views

  • In the latest example, Portugal's Constitutional Court on Thursday shot down the government's attempts to improve the country's competitiveness by making it easier for companies to shed workers—as demanded under the terms of the country's international bailout. The court ruled against the measures because, it said, they went against the principle of firing workers only when there was just cause.
  • Courts have been able to thwart some attempts to shrink the state bureaucracy or make the labor force more flexible.
  • Portugal's 1976 constitution calls for "opening the path to a socialist society." It obliges the state to promote employment, move toward free health and education services and even develop "centers of rest and holiday" for workers.
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  • So perhaps it comes as little surprise that, in the last five months, the country's Constitutional Court has struck down four government measures, including a tax on unemployment benefits and temporary trims in wages and pensions that the judges said were unfairly targeted at civil servants.
  • Last month the court ruled against a plan to steer redundant public employees into a retraining program and lay off those who aren't placed in new jobs after 12 months
  • "To fulfill what the [judges] want, we need to leave the euro," said Medina Carreira, an economist and former Portuguese finance minister.
  • Under the terms of its 2011 bailout, the government has until the end of this year to move 25,000 civil servants into a labor reserve—at reduced pay—that many view as a prelude to layoffs.
  • "In several cases, local political norms seem incompatible with euro-area membership in the long term," said J.P. Morgan Chase economist Alex White.
  • Unlike the U.S. Constitution, which has seven articles and 27 amendments, Europe's national charters tend to be lengthy and prescriptive, limiting the space for judicial interpretation. Portugal's has 296 articles, Italy's has 139 and Greece's has 120.
  • "The constitution can't set a series of obligations for a state that simply has no money to fulfill them,"
Gene Ellis

Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue - WSJ.com - 0 views

  • It included no debt restructuring, such as forgiving principal, reducing the interest rate on the debt or stretching out the payment schedule to make servicing easier.
  • That spared the holders of the debt—chiefly European banks—the losses that would have come with restructuring.
  • Some of the IMF dissenters at the meeting and some IMF staff believe the interests of the European powers were placed above those of Greece, which has seen its economy contract by a fifth since 2009 and its jobless rate reach nearly 28%.
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  • "The Greek bailout was not a program for Greece, but for the euro zone itself,"
  • "In May 2010, we knew that Greece needed a bailout but not that it would require debt restructuring," IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a June interview. "We had no clue that the overall economic situation was going to deteriorate as quickly as it did."
    • Gene Ellis
       
      And this is the point, is it not?
  • Ms. Lagarde was French finance minister at the time and keen to avoid losses by her country's banks, which had lent heavily to Greece.
  • "An upfront debt restructuring would have been better for Greece although this was not acceptable to the euro partners," it said.
  • In retrospect, the report said, the "program served as a holding operation" that allowed "private creditors to reduce exposures…leaving taxpayers and the official sector on the hook."
  • Much of the debt was held by already fragile French and German banks, so European nations wouldn't consider it. And the U.S. feared its own trillion-dollar exposure to European banks.
  • Several IMF directors had warned of just that outcome three years earlier. The program "may be seen not as a rescue of Greece, which will have to undergo a wrenching adjustment, but as a bailout of Greece's private debtholders, mainly European financial institutions," Brazil's executive director, Paulo Nogueira Batista, said at the May 2010 meeting.
  • now confront the prospect of a third bailout in which they would also forgive some of Greece's debt.
Gene Ellis

Intel to downsize Costa Rica operations, several media sources report - The Tico Times - 0 views

  • Intel to downsize Costa Rica operations, several media sources report
  • Intel reportedly plans to move its manufacturing operation to Asia and lay off 1,500 employees, according to “well-placed” sources in the company, reported the newspaper El Financiero.
  • Microprocessors are Costa Rica’s primary export. Over 20 percent of Costa Rica’s exports in 2013 were microprocessors, worth some $2.4 billion, according to statistics from the Foreign Trade Ministry (COMEX).
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  • Intel CEO Brian Krzanich said in January that financial pressures would push the company to downsize
  • Intel has been in Costa Rica since 1997 and has invested $800 million in Costa Rica between then and 2010, according to COMEX, the online daily CRHoy.com reported. Intel employs nearly 2,700 people in Costa Rica.
Gene Ellis

Productivity: Technology isn't working | The Economist - 0 views

  • Technology isn’t working
  • Technology isn’t working
  • n the 1970s the blistering growth after the second world war vanished in both Europe and America. In the early 1990s Japan joined the slump, entering a prolonged period of economic stagnation.
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  • Between 1991 and 2012 the average annual increase in real wages in Britain was 1.5% and in America 1%, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, a club of mostly rich countries.
  • Real wage growth in Germany from 1992 to 2012 was just 0.6%; Italy and Japan saw hardly any increase at all.
  • And the dramatic dip in productivity growth after 2000 seems to have coincided with an apparent acceleration in technological advances as the web and smartphones spread everywhere and machine intelligence and robotics made rapid progress.
  • A second explanation for the Solow paradox, put forward by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee (as well as plenty of techno-optimists in Silicon Valley), is that technological advances increase productivity only after a long lag.
  • John Fernald, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and perhaps the foremost authority on American productivity figures, earlier this year published a study of productivity growth over the past decade. He found that its slowness had nothing to do with the housing boom and bust, the financial crisis or the recession. Instead, it was concentrated in ICT industries and those that use ICT intensively.
  • Once an online course has been developed, it can be offered to unlimited numbers of extra students at little extra cost.
  • For example, new techniques and technologies in medical care appear to be slowing the rise in health-care costs in America. Machine intelligence could aid diagnosis, allowing a given doctor or nurse to diagnose more patients more effectively at lower cost. The use of mobile technology to monitor chronically ill patients at home could also produce huge savings.
  • Health care and education are expensive, in large part, because expansion involves putting up new buildings and filling them with costly employees. Rising productivity in those sectors would probably cut employment.
  • The integration of large emerging markets into the global economy added a large pool of relatively low-skilled labour which many workers in rich countries had to compete with. That meant firms were able to keep workers’ pay low.
  • By creating a labour glut, new technologies have trapped rich economies in a cycle of self-limiting productivity growth.
  • Productivity growth has always meant cutting down on labour. In 1900 some 40% of Americans worked in agriculture, and just over 40% of the typical household budget was spent on food. Over the next century automation reduced agricultural employment in most rich countries to below 5%,
  • A new paper by Peter Cappelli, of the University of Pennsylvania, concludes that in recent years over-education has been a consistent problem in most developed economies, which do not produce enough suitable jobs to absorb the growing number of college-educated workers.
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