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Gene Ellis

Greek Credit-Default Swaps Are Activated - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • The decision by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association ends months of speculation that a Greek default might not set off the swaps, a result that could have undermined their role as insurance against debt defaults.
  • Still, doubts about the instruments’ effectiveness may linger. European officials initially shaped the Greek debt restructuring to avoid activating them. The concern is that future restructurings could be arranged to stop swaps from paying out.
  • Since then, banks and regulators have taken steps to strengthen the market, mostly by making sure that investors can pay out the money they owe on swaps.
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  • The Greek government chose to apply so-called collective action clauses, which it had earlier inserted into its bonds registered under Greek law. The deal maximized total debt relief for the country,
  • but it also forced losses on bondholders — a credit event, and therefore a trigger, for the swaps.
  • the restructuring activated the swaps only after the country made a legal move on Friday.
  • Nearly $70 billion of swaps are currently outstanding on Greek debt. But after both sides settle their accounts, the amount that will need to be paid out should be no more than $3.2 billion.
  • Some investors entered swaps on Greece as a way of effectively insuring themselves against losses on their Greek bonds, while others used them as a way to bet on a default happening.
  • Before investors doubted Greece’s solvency, the swaps offered insurance at what turned out to be an extremely cheap price. At the start of 2008, an investor buying protection on Greek debt had to pay only $22,000 annually to insure against default on $10 million of Greek bonds over five years, according to Markit, a data provider. Now, the protection would cost about $7.6 million.
  • Investors will most likely continue to want default swaps to protect against losses on Greece’s new bonds. These bonds, to be issued Monday, are expected to have yields of well over 15 percent, according to advance pricing. This suggests investors have strong doubts about Greece’s creditworthiness even after its restructuring. Fitch Ratings said on Friday that it would probably give Greece’s new bonds a low, junk-bond rating.
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Gene Ellis

Productivity and ULC by main economic activity (ISIC Rev.4) - 0 views

  • Productivity and ULC by main economic activity (ISIC Rev.4) : ULC, hourly labour compensation and productivity
Gene Ellis

Greek Euro Exit Unavoidable if IMF, Euro Zone Can't Agree- IMF Stream - WSJ.com - 0 views

  • principle
  • So the need for an agreement between the euro zone and the IMF is paramount. The IMF as a senior creditor can't accept losses of its own in the Greek program and it has to convince unhappy members from the emerging world that lent it money to continue financing Greece that the country's debt is sustainable. For this to happen, about 50 billion euros ($65 billion) must be forgiven from Greece's giant debt and the decision for such action including the political backlash is squarely in Europe's court.
  • There are ways that the Europeans can make it happen. One would involve the European Stability Mechanism, a newly activated bailout mechanism that would take over the recapitalization of Greek banks, which is set to cost €50 billion, instead of the amount being added to the country's debt.
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  • Another way would be the European Central Bank accepting losses to the Greek bonds it holds.
  • In typical fashion the creditors are demanding from Athens another set of painful austerity cuts which the country can't afford and the IMF is openly saying that it won't sign off on the loan payment before a haircut takes place.
    • Gene Ellis
       
      Meaning:  that the IMF sees that austerity will kill Greece off, and wants to provide some breathing room...
Gene Ellis

The Eurozone's Delayed Reckoning by Nouriel Roubini - Project Syndicate - 0 views

  • For starters, the European Central Bank’s “outright monetary transactions” program has been incredibly effective: interest-rate spreads for Spain and Italy have fallen by about 250 basis points, even before a single euro has been spent to purchase government bonds.
  • The introduction of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which provides another €500 billion ($650 billion) to be used to backstop banks and sovereigns, has also helped, as has European leaders’ recognition that a monetary union alone is unstable and incomplete, requiring deeper banking, fiscal, economic, and political integration.
  • But, perhaps most important, Germany’s attitude toward the eurozone in general, and Greece in particular, has changed. German officials now understand that, given extensive trade and financial links, a disorderly eurozone hurts not just the periphery but the core.
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  • GDP continues to shrink,
  • Moreover, balkanization of economic activity, banking systems, and public-debt markets continues, as foreign investors flee the eurozone periphery and seek safety in the core.
  • Likewise, competitiveness losses have been partly reversed as wages have lagged productivity growth, thus reducing unit labor costs, and some structural reforms are ongoing.
    • Gene Ellis
       
      This, indeed, is the crux of the matter.
  • either the eurozone moves toward fuller integration (capped by political union to provide democratic legitimacy to the loss of national sovereignty on banking, fiscal, and economic affairs), or it will undergo disunion, dis-integration, fragmentation, and eventual breakup.
  • but countries like Germany, which were over-saving and running external surpluses, have not been forced to adjust by increasing domestic demand, so their trade surpluses have remained large.
  • German leaders fear that the risk-sharing elements of deeper integration
  • imply a politically unacceptable transfer union whereby Germany and the core unilaterally and permanently subsidize the periphery.
  • Of course, Germany fails to recognize that successful monetary unions like the United States have a full banking union with significant risk-sharing elements, and a fiscal union whereby idiosyncratic shocks to specific states’ output are absorbed by the federal budget. The US is also a large transfer union, in which richer states permanently subsidize the poorer ones.
    • Gene Ellis
       
      These are key features, built into the over-representation of the poorer, smaller, more agricultural, states; as well as in the central institutions.
  • But the fundamental crisis of the eurozone has not been resolved, and another year of muddling through could revive these risks in a more virulent form in 2014 and beyond. Unfortunately, the eurozone crisis is likely to remain with us for years to come, sustaining the likelihood of coercive debt restructurings and eurozone exits.
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    Late 2012 reading
Gene Ellis

The Two Innovation Economies by William Janeway - Project Syndicate - 0 views

  • The strategic technologies that have repeatedly transformed the market economy – from railroads to the Internet – required the construction of networks whose value in use could not be known when they were first deployed.
  • Consequently, innovation at the frontier depends on funding sources that are decoupled from concern for economic value;
  • Financial speculation has been, and remains, one required source of funding. Financial bubbles emerge wherever liquid asset markets exist. Indeed, the objects of such speculation astound the imagination: tulip bulbs, gold and silver mines, real estate, the debt of new nations, corporate securities.
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  • Complementing the role of speculation, activist states have played several roles in encouraging innovation.
  • Occasionally, the object of speculation has been one of those fundamental technologies – canals, railroads, electrification, radio, automobiles, microelectronics, computing, the Internet – for which financial speculators have mobilized capital on a scale far beyond what “rational” investors would provide. From the wreckage that has inevitably followed, a succession of new economies has emerged.
  • In the United States, the government constructed transformational networks (the interstate highway system), massively subsidized their construction (the transcontinental railroads), or played the foundational role in their design and early development (the Internet).
  • For countries following an innovative leader, the path is clear. Mercantilist policies of protection and subsidy have been effective instruments of an economically active state.
  • List noted how Britain’s emergence as “the first industrial nation” at the end of the eighteenth century depended on prior state policies to promote British industry. “Had the English left everything to itself,” he wrote, “the Belgians would be still manufacturing cloth for the English, [and] England would still have been the sheepyard for the [Hanseatic League].”
  • To begin, the “national champions” of the catch-up phase must be rendered accessible to competitive assault. More generally, the state’s role must shift from executing well-defined programs to supporting trial-and-error experimentation and tolerating entrepreneurial failure. And the debilitating “corruption tax” that seems inevitably to accompany economic revolutions must be curbed, as it was in Britain during the nineteenth century and America during the twentieth.
Gene Ellis

Solutions Remain Elusive After Financial Crisis - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • In this world, financial bubbles matter, capital flows are of dubious merit, low interest rates fail to stimulate growth and government spending becomes the only tool with real traction to spur economic activity.
  • With total government debt in the rich world stuck at around 100 percent of its combined economic output, there is a legitimate fear that a rise in interest rates could tip off a financial death spiral. Moreover, if countries with debt levels well under 50 percent of G.D.P. were so devastated by the crisis, it is hard to imagine what might happen to them if another were to hit them.
  • If so, the urgent task is what kind of limits should be imposed on banking and the rest of finance to temper its propensity to careen toward disaster.
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  • What good does the modern financial system do, for the rest of us? What determines financial fluctuations and shocks? How do they affect the broader economy? What can governments do to make them less disruptive? Economists have few answers.
Gene Ellis

Euro Zone Interest Rate Remains Unchanged - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • But some analysts warn that the calm could prove temporary because the underlying causes of the crisis remain: too much debt and poorly performing national economies. “The E.C.B. has been very active since Mr. Draghi has been president, and this has been a major factor contributing to stabilize financial markets and thereby avoid much worse outcomes for the euro zone,” Marie Diron, an economist who advises the consulting firm Ernst & Young, said in a note.
  • “But the E.C.B. is not the sole actor and cannot save the euro on its own,” Ms. Diron said. “Ultimately the sustainability of the euro zone is down to structural changes at the country and European levels that are beyond the E.C.B.’s remit.”
  • Banks in the euro zone can borrow unlimited funds from the E.C.B. at the benchmark rate, provided they post collateral. But banks are not obligated to pass that rate on to their customers and might not do so in countries like Spain where banks are already struggling with large numbers of bad loans.
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  • Meanwhile, interest rates may be too low for countries like Germany, helping to fuel a rise in real estate prices, Dirk Schumacher, an economist at Goldman Sachs in Frankfurt, said. “Cutting rates in the current environment of segmented markets is likely to boost growth in those places where it is needed least,” he wrote in a note to clients before the rate decision.
Gene Ellis

PORTFOLIO.HU | Blanchard: Eurozone integration needs to go forward or go back, but it c... - 0 views

  • There is no question that, when it was introduced, inflation targeting represented progress. But we have learnt that it has serious limitations. You can have an economy in which inflation is stable and low, but behind the scenes the composition of the output is wrong, and the financial system accumulates risks. It’s very clear that, to deal with all these issues, just using the policy rate is not enough.
  • The way to think about monetary policy in the future is that the central bank has in effect two sets of tools. One is a traditional one, the policy interest rate. The other is the set of macro prudential tools, from loan to value ratios, to cyclical capital ratios, etc. If there is a housing boom, you do not want to kill it through an increase in the policy rate which would affect the whole economy. You want to use measures that will limit mortgage lending to households.
  • I think that it has either to go forward or to go back, but it cannot stay where it is. I think nobody really wants to go back, so it has to go forward.
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  • I suspect that, in order to limit country specific shocks, euro members may have to actively use macro prudential tools such as rules on the amount of liquidity that banks should hold, or upper limit to loans to value ratios, much more so that they have in the past.
  • If the U.S. and a number of other advanced countries are going to decrease their current account deficits, then some countries will have to decrease their current account surpluses. And for this to happen, there has to be, among other changes, an adjustment of the exchange rates. Put more bluntly, most emerging markets have to accept an appreciation.
Gene Ellis

Africa losing billions from fraud and tax avoidance | Global development | The Guardian - 0 views

  • Africa losing billions from fraud and tax avoidance
  • In total, the continent lost about $850bn between 1970 and 2008, the report said. An estimated $217.7bn was illegally transferred out of Nigeria over that period, while Egypt lost $105.2bn and South Africa more than $81.8bn.
  • African Union’s (AU) high-level panel on illicit financial flows and the UN economic commission for Africa (Uneca).
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  • Africa is losing more than $50bn (£33bn) every year in illicit financial outflows as governments and multinational companies engage in fraudulent schemes aimed at avoiding tax payments to some of the world’s poorest countries, impeding development projects and denying poor people access to crucial services.
  • Nigeria’s crude oil exports, mineral production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Africa, and timber sales from Liberia and Mozambique are all sectors where trade mispricing occurs.
  • The bulk of Africa’s illicit transfers originated from west Africa, where 38% of all funds leaving the continent were generated. Profit-making activities in north Africa accounted for 28% of the flows, while southern Africa, central Africa and eastern Africa each made up about 10%, the report showed.
Gene Ellis

Tourists Also Tell Greece No: Drop in Summer Bookings - WSJ.com - 0 views

  • Greek-vacation bookings from Germany and the rest of Europe are down sharply, as would-be tourists take fright at the prospect of strikes and street protests.
  • Early reservations for this summer's tourist season are down by around 15% from a year ago. Last year's record total of 16.4 million visitors is already out of reach, he says.
  • The industry accounts for about one-sixth of economic activity and nearly one in five jobs.
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  • If the decline in bookings continues, it would mean about 1.5 million fewer tourists coming to Greece this year compared to last, shaving more than a percentage point off gross domestic product and jeopardizing 100,000 summertime jobs.
  • Greece is one of the world's top 20 tourist destinations, traditionally drawing about half of its visitors from other European Union countries—especially from Germany and the U.K.
  • Prices are down some 15% from last year, according to SETE, following a 10% cut in rates charged by hotel and tour operators in 2011.
  • Leading German tour operator TUI AG says its Greek vacation bookings were down 30% up to March. European travel agency Thomas Cook TCG.LN +0.23% said German bookings for Greece so far are also down by 30% compared with 2011, despite discounts of as much as 20%.
Gene Ellis

Statistics in Africa: Making Africa count | The Economist - 0 views

  • IN 2013 Nigeria’s GDP could increase by 40%, which would be impressive even by Africa’s recent bouncy growth standards. The rise will come not from a surge in economic activity but because the country is rejigging the way it calculates its accounts.
  • But the new figures may owe as much to political calculation as to hard-nosed statisticians
  • Nigeria’s real GDP is based on 1990 prices. It plans to update them to ones from 2008. Ghana did the same in 2010, revising its base year from 1996 to 2006. Its GDP shot up by 60%, propelling it overnight from being a poor to middle-income country, defined by the IMF as having a GDP per person of at least $1,026 a year.
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  • In 2005 its government brought in fertiliser subsidies. It reported a maize crop of 3.4m tonnes in 2006-7, up from 2.6m tonnes the year before. The aid lobby said this justified the subsidies and the budget support which enables them to be paid for.
  • But figures released in 2010, disputed by Malawi’s ministry of agriculture, suggest that the harvest was only 2.1m tonnes. If maize production had risen as much as claimed, Malawians should have have had a surplus of maize and prices should have dropped. That did not happen, says Mr Jerven.
Gene Ellis

Why Is Zambia So Poor? And Will Things Ever Get Better? - 0 views

  • Sixty-four percent of the population lives on less than $1 per day, 14 percent have HIV, 40 percent don’t have access to clean drinking water. Almost 90 percent of women in rural areas cannot read or write. Name a category—schools, health care, environment—and I’ll give you statistics that will depress the shit out of you.
  • For more than 150 years, the only reason to come to Kitwe—to Zambia, really—was the copper.
  • Most of the buildings in Kitwe, the roads, the health clinics, the schools, were built by the national mining company
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  • At its peak, the Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines company employed more than 65,000 Zambians and carried out services like water delivery and waste collection for five cities in the Copper Belt Province.
  • Mining employment has dropped to just 30,000, half of its glory-days peak, and the job of maintaining all that company housing and infrastructure has reverted back to the government.
  • The stats identify Switzerland as Zambia’s primary export market. This is not an indicator that Zambia hosts a thriving chocolate and suspenders sector, but rather that its copper trades are booked in the jurisdiction where they are least likely to be taxed.
  • Many of the mining companies pay just 0.6 percent royalties to Zambia, far below the already-meager industry standard of three percent.
  • And then there’s the Chinese. They arrived like a well-packed picnic, everything in shipping crates ready to be unpacked. Their own materials, their own equipment, their own workers, their own fences. If you were designing a foreign investment not to benefit the host community, this is what it would look like.
  • This is Namwile Uzondile, the director of a rural health education project.
  • Last year Namwile conducted a survey of prostitutes here in Kitwe, and found that at least half of them had education certificates, but couldn’t find work. Most had been married off early, 15 or 16, and since then had either left their husbands or lost them to AIDS.
  • First, you go to the tribal chief. Ninety-four percent of the land in Zambia is customary or traditional, no one has a title to it. It’s not just sitting there, people are living on it, farming, grazing animals, it’s just technically under the control of a chief.
  • In Zambia most of the chiefs require a gift just to get a meeting. This might mean taking them lunch at a restaurant in Lusaka, or it could mean buying their daughter a car—it’s up to them.
  • Another reason Zambia lacks skills is that some parts of the workforce operate as cartels. Take lawyers. Zambia only has 1,000 of them, and they’re concentrated where the money is: Lusaka (government), Copper Belt (mining) and Livingstone (safari tourists).
  • Last year, only six lawyers were admitted to the bar out of 164 who took the exam. The year before that, it was 16 out of 145. Keep in mind, these aren’t people coming in off the streets. These are people who have a law degree.
  • More than 60 percent of Zambia’s government revenue comes from the copper mines.
  • Taxing all this informal activity would be costly in both resources and voter goodwill. In 2012, Zambia collected just $2.3 million in income taxes from its citizens.
  • It goes as high up as you want to follow it. Michael Sata, the president of Zambia, appointed his uncle the finance minister, his nephew the deputy finance minister, his niece the local government minister, and cousins as ambassador to Japan and chief justice.
  • Zambia’s cabinet has ballooned to 20 ministers and 47 deputy ministers, the largest in Africa. With salaries three to four times higher than opposition MPs and each ministerial post bundled with perks like a company car, free fuel, house servants, and mobile phone talk-time, you get the feeling politicians aren’t jumping from opposition into government on moral sentiment alone.
  • But even if Zambia was run by a coalition of charitable technocrats and Mormon philanthropists, that wouldn’t solve the most fundamental problem of all: There simply isn’t that much money to go around.
  • In 2011, Zambia spent a total of $4.3 billion running itself. Stretch that to cover every man, woman, and child, and it amounts to just $325 per person per year. That amount—less than a dollar per person per day—has to cover education, health care, infrastructure, law enforcement, foreign debt … everything.
  • Now she goes all NGO. “Little government capacity,” she says, is the nicest way to put it. “There are simply no systems for routine government services,” she says. Getting a license, a permit, certificates, approvals to start work, visas for expats to fly down here—nothing is in one place, nothing is fast or easy.
  • And that’s just the bureaucracy. Then there are the cops that pull you over to ask for 50 kwacha ($10); the schools with slots reserved for paying parents; the hospitals that swear the earliest appointment, the only available medicine, is six months away until you reach into your pocket.
  • “Sometimes we have to pay for the inspectors to come to our mines,” Jane says.
  • The conversation goes like this: Jane tells the local certification body that she needs an inspector to sign off for a permit. The local certification body tells her that they would be happy to come out to the site, but they don’t have fuel for their cars, or enough petty cash to pay per diems. Jane offers to pay their costs, but only their costs, and the payments aren’t related to clearing the inspection.
  • The company has even paid the police to follow up on complaints or to investigate thefts. “They say, ‘We don’t have this in our budget’ or ‘We’ll need you to pay for it,’” Jane says. So the company fixes the police cars, covers their travel expenses, treats them to lunch.
  • “We tell them, ‘The company I work for, we’re not going to pay up.’ But at the end of the day, they know you’re on a short timeline, and they aren’t.”
  • Thomas’ family told him his nephews didn’t need to be in school. From their perspective, that’s not totally irrational. In a country with so few formal jobs and so much competition for getting them, I can see how spending hundreds of hours, thousands of kwachas, on education would seem superfluous. Thomas’ daughter wants to become a lawyer. You could almost forgive Thomas if he told her that the bar exam failure rate is more than 90 percent, so what’s the use?
  • International investors pledged $750 million last year to build infrastructure.
Gene Ellis

allAfrica.com: Nigeria's Dying Public Universities (Page 1 of 4) - 0 views

  • They had taken to the streets to demand an end to a lecturers' strike that had grounded academic activities in all but two of Nigeria's 78 public universities. The strike was in its third week when the protest took place.
  • The lecturers' strike, the third in four years, pitted the academics against the owners of Nigeria's public universities - the country's central and state governments.
  • In the last three years the government of President Goodluck Jonathan, a former university lecturer, has established nine new universities.
Gene Ellis

BBC News - Battle of the knowledge superpowers - 0 views

  • Instead of basking in the reflected glory of a prize winner funded by European grants, she said she had to listen to a speech attacking the red-tape and bureaucracy - and "generally embarrassing the hell out of me".
  • But the knowledge economy does not always scatter its seed widely. When the US is talked about as an innovation powerhouse, much of this activity is based in narrow strips on the east and west coasts. A map of Europe measuring the number of patent applications shows a similar pattern - with high concentrations in pockets of England, France, Germany and Finland.
  • Jan Muehlfeit, chairman of Microsoft Europe, explained what was profoundly different about these new digital industries - that they expand at a speed and scale that would have been impossible in the traditional manufacturing industries. Governments trying to respond to such quicksilver businesses needed to ensure that young people were well-educated, creative and adaptable, he said.
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  • There were 11 million jobs lost, half of them in the United States, and with low-skilled workers and manufacturing the hardest hit.
  • From a standing start, China now has 12% of graduates in the world's big economies - approaching the share of the UK, Germany and France put together. The incumbent superpower, the United States, still towers above with 26% of the graduates.
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Gene Ellis

EZ crisis and historical trilemmas | vox - 0 views

  • The big difference in the EZ is that nations cannot go off the euro as they went off the gold standard
  • A major part of Lenin’s analysis, for instance, was devoted to the demonstration that Russia had become a quasi-colony as a result of the large scale capital imports, and that the foreign creditors in effect controlled Russia’s foreign policy.
  • The linkages of these issues can be summarized as a series of impossible trinities or trilemmas.
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  • The move in Europe to monetary union for weaker countries was a credibility enhancing mechanism that would lower borrowing costs. For countries that had strong creditor positions, the attractions of monetary union lay in the depoliticizing of the adjustment process (James 2012). The Eurozone worked quite well as a disciplining mechanism before it entered into effect, but much less well afterwards.
  • Banking expanded after the establishment of the euro (Shin 2012). No adequate provision on a European basis existed for banking supervision and regulation, which like fiscal policy, was left to rather diverse national authorities. An explosion of banking activity occurred simultaneously with the transition to monetary union and may well have been stimulated by the new single money.
  • The implicit national government backstop was really only credible because of the international commitment to the European integration project. It was that commitment that led markets to believe that – in spite of the no bailout provisions of the Maastricht Treaty – there were almost no limits to the amount to which debt levels could accumulate both in the private and the public sector.
  • When the democratic/popular backlash occurs, it takes the form of rejection of international/cross-border political commitment mechanism.
  • Opinion poll data shows a major increase in hostility to the EU in peripheral countries, but with no corresponding unpopularity of the common currency.
Gene Ellis

Nato defence spending falls despite promises to reverse cuts - BBC News - 0 views

  • Nato defence spending falls despite promises to reverse cuts
  • Europe's failure to pay its way in Nato is seriously worrying the US, which already provides 75% of all Nato defence expenditure (the US spends 3.8% of its GDP on defence).
  • Without any of its own maritime patrol aircraft, the UK recently had to request the help of Nato allies to search for suspected Russian submarines off the west coast of Scotland. In Germany there have been reports of serious malfunctions in military equipment.
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  • These figures are in line with earlier research carried out by the Royal United Services Institute which projected that UK defence spending could fall to about 1.7% of GDP by the end of the decade.
  • Nato has already set a target that member states should each spend a minimum of 2% of their national income or GDP on defence.
  • Contrast that with Russia's defence spending, which is rising from 3.4% of its GDP this year to 4.2% next year ($81bn or £52.2bn). Russia is also stepping up its military activity. A separate report by Ian Brzezinski for the Atlantic Council says there is also an "exercise gap" between Russia and Nato. Since 2013 Russia has conducted at least six military exercises involving 65,000-160,000 troops.
Gene Ellis

Why Do Americans Stink at Math? - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Why Do Americans Stink at Math?
  • The Americans might have invented the world’s best methods for teaching math to children, but it was difficult to find anyone actually using them.
  • In fact, efforts to introduce a better way of teaching math stretch back to the 1800s. The story is the same every time: a big, excited push, followed by mass confusion and then a return to conventional practices.
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  • Carefully taught, the assignments can help make math more concrete. Students don’t just memorize their times tables and addition facts but also understand how arithmetic works and how to apply it to real-life situations. But in practice, most teachers are unprepared and children are baffled, leaving parents furious.
  • On national tests, nearly two-thirds of fourth graders and eighth graders are not proficient in math. More than half of fourth graders taking the 2013 National Assessment of Educational Progress could not accurately read the temperature on a neatly drawn thermometer.
  • On the same multiple-choice test, three-quarters of fourth graders could not translate a simple word problem about a girl who sold 15 cups of lemonade on Saturday and twice as many on Sunday into the expression “15 + (2×15).” Even in Massachusetts, one of the country’s highest-performing states, math students are more than two years behind their counterparts in Shanghai.
  • A 2012 study comparing 16-to-65-year-olds in 20 countries found that Americans rank in the bottom five in numeracy.
  • On a scale of 1 to 5, 29 percent of them scored at Level 1 or below, meaning they could do basic arithmetic but not computations requiring two or more steps.
  • One study that examined medical prescriptions gone awry found that 17 percent of errors were caused by math mistakes on the part of doctors or pharmacists.
  • “I’m just not a math person,” Lampert says her education students would say with an apologetic shrug.
  • In the 1970s and the 1980s, cognitive scientists studied a population known as the unschooled, people with little or no formal education.
  • For instance, many of the workers charged with loading quarts and gallons of milk into crates had no more than a sixth-grade education. But they were able to do math, in order to assemble their loads efficiently, that was “equivalent to shifting between different base systems of numbers.”
  • Studies of children in Brazil, who helped support their families by roaming the streets selling roasted peanuts and coconuts, showed that the children routinely solved complex problems in their heads to calculate a bill or make change.
  • The cognitive-science research suggested a startling cause of Americans’ innumeracy: school.
  • The answer-getting strategies may serve them well for a class period of practice problems, but after a week, they forget. And students often can’t figure out how to apply the strategy for a particular problem to new problems.
  • In the process, she gave them an opportunity to realize, on their own, why their answers were wrong.
  • At most education schools, the professors with the research budgets and deanships have little interest in the science of teaching
  • Only when the company held customer focus groups did it become clear why. The Third Pounder presented the American public with a test in fractions. And we failed. Misunderstanding the value of one-third, customers believed they were being overcharged. Why, they asked the researchers, should they pay the same amount for a third of a pound of meat as they did for a quarter-pound of meat at McDonald’s. The “4” in “¼,” larger than the “3” in “⅓,” led them astray.
  • Some of the failure could be explained by active resistance.
  • A year after he got to Chicago, he went to a one-day conference of teachers and mathematicians and was perplexed by the fact that the gathering occurred only twice a year.
  • More distressing to Takahashi was that American teachers had almost no opportunities to watch one another teach.
  • In Japan, teachers had always depended on jugyokenkyu, which translates literally as “lesson study,” a set of practices that Japanese teachers use to hone their craft. A teacher first plans lessons, then teaches in front of an audience of students and other teachers along with at least one university observer. Then the observers talk with the teacher about what has just taken place. Each public lesson poses a hypothesis, a new idea about how to help children learn.
  • The research showed that Japanese students initiated the method for solving a problem in 40 percent of the lessons; Americans initiated 9 percent of the time.
  • Similarly, 96 percent of American students’ work fell into the category of “practice,” while Japanese students spent only 41 percent of their time practicing.
  • Finland, meanwhile, made the shift by carving out time for teachers to spend learning. There, as in Japan, teachers teach for 600 or fewer hours each school year, leaving them ample time to prepare, revise and learn. By contrast, American teachers spend nearly 1,100 hours with little feedback.
  • “Sit on a stone for three years to accomplish anything.”
  • In one experiment in which more than 200 American teachers took part in lesson study, student achievement rose, as did teachers’ math knowledge — two rare accomplishments.
  • Examining nearly 3,000 teachers in six school districts, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation recently found that nearly two-thirds scored less than “proficient” in the areas of “intellectual challenge” and “classroom discourse.”
Gene Ellis

Europe has to do whatever it takes - FT.com - 0 views

  • Europe has to do whatever it takes By Martin Wolf
  • Astonishingly, yields on Italian and Spanish 10-year debt have fallen from 6.3 per cent and 7.0 per cent, respectively, at the beginning of August 2012, to a mere 2.3 and 2.1 per cent early this month. That is below the yield on UK gilts.
  • Fiscal policy also continues to tighten, even though interest rates are at the zero bound: the OECD has forecast that the cyclically adjusted fiscal deficit of the eurozone would shrink from a mere 1.4 per cent in 2013 to an even more austere 0.9 per cent in 2014.
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  • Huge divergences in competitiveness remain
  • This is forcing vulnerable countries into deflation, which raises the real level of their debt.
  • Furthermore, it is clear that the ECB would be taking on credit risk. It would be charged with monetary financing of governments. I believe it should go ahead. But the row between northern and southern Europe would surely be deafening.
  • It also hopes that, through this and other programmes it has announced, it will be able to expand its balance sheet
  • back to where it was two years ago.
  • Moreover, the range of measures taken reinforce the ECB’s forward guidance. It has locked itself into ultra-accommodative monetary policies for years, as it should.
  • this year Germany’s current account surplus might be as big as 8 per cent of gross domestic product.
  • What else is left? One possibility, suggested in Mr Draghi’s speech, is active use of fiscal policy.
Gene Ellis

Why Apple Got a 'Made in U.S.A.' Bug - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Today, rising energy prices and a global market for computers are changing the way companies make their machines.
  • Hewlett-Packard, which turns out over 50 million computers a year through its own plants and subcontractors, makes many of its larger desktop personal computers in such higher-cost areas as Indianapolis and Tokyo to save on fuel costs and to serve business buyers rapidly.
  • “It’s important that they get an order in five days,
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  • there is a pride for the local consumer to see a sticker that says ‘Made in Tokyo,’
  • Cook is looking to give Apple some good news.
  • A Dell factory in Winston-Salem, N.C., for which Dell received $280 million in incentives from the government, was shut in 2010 (Dell had to repay some of the incentives).
  • In 1998, President Bill Clinton visited a Gateway Computer factory outside Dublin to cheer the role of American manufacturers in the rise of a “Celtic Tiger” in technology.That plant was shut in 2001, when Gateway elected to save costs by manufacturing in China
  • As cheap as a Chinese assembly worker may be, an emerging trend in manufacturing, specialized robots, promises to be even cheaper. The most valuable part of the computer, a motherboard loaded with microprocessors and memory, is already largely made with robots. People do things like fitting in batteries and snapping on screens.
  • The labor cost on a notebook, which is about 4 to 5 percent of the retail price, is only slightly higher than the cost of shipping by air. Soon even that is likely to change because of the twin forces of lower manufacturing costs from automation and higher transportation costs from rising global activity.
  • Intel, which makes most of the processors, has plants in Oregon, Arizona, New Mexico, Israel, Ireland and China.
  • Many other chip companies design their own products and have them made in giant factories, largely in Taiwan and China. Computer screens are made in Taiwan and South Korea, for the most part.
  • The special glass used for the touch screens of Apple’s iPhone and iPad, however, is an exception. It comes primarily from the United States.
  • More recent products, laptops and notebook computers, were in many cases originally assembled in China, and they are still largely made there. So are most smartphones and tablets. Every week, H.P. sends a group of cargo containers filled with notebooks to Europe.
  • That plant was shut in 2001, when Gateway elected to save costs by manufacturing in China. Dell, which made its mark by developing lean manufacturing techniques in Texas, closed its showcase Austin factory in 2008 as part of a companywide move to manufacturing in China. A Dell factory in Winston-Salem, N.C., for which Dell received $280 million in incentives from the government, was shut in 2010 (Dell had to repay some of the incentives).
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