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Bill Fulkerson

The risk of eternal lockdown - UnHerd - 0 views

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    "Risk of eternal lockdown. Hard questions need to be asked.. It's essential that we don't enter a semi-permanent state of emergency laws & basic rights switched on/off by the govt at will and without democratic scrutiny.. We cannot be locked down forever."
Bill Fulkerson

How can countries safely leave their coronavirus lockdowns? | World Economic Forum - 0 views

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    The time has come to consider an exit strategy. Our mathematical modelling suggests that some version of green zoning would offer this. Through the progressive enlargement of green zones, we would able to rebuild our social and economic interaction in a safe, efficient, and rapid way.
Bill Fulkerson

Calling for benefit-risk evaluations of COVID-19 control measures - The Lancet - 0 views

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    We think government lockdowns cause substantial collateral health damage. For example, hospital admissions in the USA for emergency treatment of acute ischaemic strokes have been substantially lower in February-March, 2020, than in February-March, 2019, resulting in delayed treatment.1 Compared with a historical baseline, UK nursing homes and hospices saw an increase in the number of deaths between February and June, 2020, associated with acute coronary syndrome (a 41% increase), stroke (a 39% increase), and heart failure (a 25% increase).2
Bill Fulkerson

The Masks Masquerade - Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Medium - 0 views

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    In fact masks (and faceshields) supplemented with constraints of superspreader events can save us trillions of dollars in future lockdowns (and lawsuits) and be potentially sufficient (under adequate compliance) to stem the pandemic. Bureaucrats do not like simple solutions.
Bill Fulkerson

China's Global Lockdown Propaganda Campaign - Tablet Magazine - 0 views

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    Inside the CCP's use of social media bots and other disinformation tactics to promote its own response to the coronavirus pandemic and attack its critics
Bill Fulkerson

COVID-19: an economic perspective - Physics World - 0 views

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    Doyne Farmer - a physicist who has studied the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic - talks to Benjamin Skuse about lockdown easing and the prospects of financial recovery
Bill Fulkerson

COVID-19 in Mauritius and Other Tourist Paradises: A Progress Report | naked capitalism - 0 views

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    When they are strict and prolonged, the public health and social measures to contain Covid-19 have proven difficult to respect. This column gives evidence of the different outcomes, as of 23 May, across a sample of 20 tourist-dependent island states with populations of between 100,000 and 10 million. If tourist-dependent islands have been hit hard by the shock, most have fared well, particularly those - like Mauritius - that acted early and imposed a strict lockdown.
Bill Fulkerson

Using a real-world network to model localized COVID-19 control strategies | Nature Medi... - 0 views

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    Case isolation and contact tracing can contribute to the control of COVID-19 outbreaks1,2. However, it remains unclear how real-world social networks could influence the effectiveness and efficiency of such approaches. To address this issue, we simulated control strategies for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a real-world social network generated from high-resolution GPS data that were gathered in the course of a citizen-science experiment3,4. We found that tracing the contacts of contacts reduced the size of simulated outbreaks more than tracing of only contacts, but this strategy also resulted in almost half of the local population being quarantined at a single point in time. Testing and releasing non-infectious individuals from quarantine led to increases in outbreak size, suggesting that contact tracing and quarantine might be most effective as a 'local lockdown' strategy when contact rates are high. Finally, we estimated that combining physical distancing with contact tracing could enable epidemic control while reducing the number of quarantined individuals. Our findings suggest that targeted tracing and quarantine strategies would be most efficient when combined with other control measures such as physical distancing.
Bill Fulkerson

Random Effects - 0 views

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    To control an epidemic, authorities will often impose varying degrees of lockdown. In a paper in the journal Chaos, scientists have discovered, using mathematics and computer simulations, why dividing a large population into multiple subpopulations that do not intermix can help contain outbreaks without imposing contact restrictions within those local communities.
Bill Fulkerson

Offline: Science and the breakdown of trust - The Lancet - 0 views

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    The COVID-19 syndemic is entering its most dangerous phase. There is a mounting breakdown of trust. Not only between politicians and the public. But also among politicians and publics with science and scientists. This breach of faith with science is far more threatening. For the public is slowly turning against those who have sought to guide the political response to COVID-19. As countries face a resurgence of coronavirus transmission, scientific advisers are recommending further restrictions to our liberties. There is now a palpable public reaction against these mandates. Whereas in March people were ready to stay at home to protect their health and health systems, the growing economic emergency that has followed national lockdowns is leading politicians to resist similar measures being applied once again. And it is scientists who are targets for public opprobrium. "Britain is in the grip of mad science", wrote one commentator last week. A UK Government minister was quoted as saying that "[Boris] Johnson has been totally captured by [Chris] Whitty and [Patrick] Vallance". "Boris is now a prisoner of the scientists", ran a newspaper headline. Robert Dingwall, a professor of sociology, wrote "we have found ourselves in the han
Bill Fulkerson

Why You Can Dine Indoors but Can't Have Thanksgiving - The Atlantic - 0 views

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    This is why you can eat in a restaurant but can't have Thanksgiving. ​​​
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