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Bill Fulkerson

The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks | PNAS - 0 views

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    Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), unprecedented movement restrictions and social distancing measures have been implemented worldwide. The socioeconomic repercussions have fueled calls to lift these measures. In the absence of population-wide restrictions, isolation of infected individuals is key to curtailing transmission. However, the effectiveness of symptom-based isolation in preventing a resurgence depends on the extent of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We evaluate the contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission based on recent individual-level data regarding infectiousness prior to symptom onset and the asymptomatic proportion among all infections. We found that the majority of incidences may be attributable to silent transmission from a combination of the presymptomatic stage and asymptomatic infections. Consequently, even if all symptomatic cases are isolated, a vast outbreak may nonetheless unfold. We further quantified the effect of isolating silent infections in addition to symptomatic cases, finding that over one-third of silent infections must be isolated to suppress a future outbreak below 1% of the population. Our results indicate that symptom-based isolation must be supplemented by rapid contact tracing and testing that identifies asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases, in order to safely lift current restrictions and minimize the risk of resurgence.
Bill Fulkerson

An open letter to Oran and Topol, and the Annals of Internal Medicine | Zenodo - 0 views

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    There is a need to better understand the contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections (those with no symptoms at all throughout the infection) in driving the current pandemic. However, there are caveats that in our opinion are pertinent when interpreting the reported findings of this review, including the lack of a clear definition of asymptomatic infection and selective inclusion of cross-sectional studies. In addition, there is a problematic interpretation of a narrative review containing a dearth of poor-quality evidence resulting in an overestimate of asymptomatic infections, which might misinform policy response.
Bill Fulkerson

Study of nearly 2,000 Marine recruits reveals asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission - 0 views

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    A study of nearly 2,000 Marine recruits who went through supervised quarantine before starting basic training revealed several instances of asymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, despite the quarantine measures.
Bill Fulkerson

Detecting Regions At Risk for Spreading COVID-19 Using Existing Cellular Wireless Netwo... - 0 views

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    Goal: The purpose of this article is to introduce a new strategy to identify areas with high human density and mobility, which are at risk for spreading COVID-19. Crowded regions with actively moving people (called at-risk regions) are susceptible to spreading the disease, especially if they contain asymptomatic infected people together with healthy people. Methods: Our scheme identifies at-risk regions using existing cellular network functionalities-handover and cell (re)selection-used to maintain seamless coverage for mobile end-user equipment (UE). The frequency of handover and cell (re)selection events is highly reflective of the density of mobile people in the area because virtually everyone carries UEs. Results: These measurements, which are accumulated over very many UEs, allow us to identify the at-risk regions without compromising the privacy and anonymity of individuals. Conclusions: The inferred at-risk regions can then be subjected to further monitoring and risk mitigation.
Bill Fulkerson

Opinion | It Has Come to This: Ignore the C.D.C. - The New York Times - 0 views

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    Like other scientists and public health experts, we have argued that more asymptomatic people, not fewer, need to be tested to bring the pandemic under control. Now, in the face of a dysfunctional C.D.C., it's up to states, other institutions and individuals to act.
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