The Fischer Random Chess Stock Market - Vitaliy Katsenelson Contrarian Edge - 0 views
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Bill Fulkerson on 11 Jun 20There is a parallel between today's stock market and Fischer random chess. The last time we faced a global pandemic was in 1918, and this might as well have been in the BC era. Few of us were alive then, but even the history books are not that useful, as the structure of the US and global economy, the central bank system, the diversity and dynamism of society, and the state of technological progress are nothing like the world knew then. Most of the mental models we as investors rely on are based on an environment that no longer exists. The only common denominator between now and then is that humans have not really changed that much - it takes a few millennia to rewire our DNA and thus our fundamental behavior.