Future of the Web

Also see post from Savio Rodgriguez. PhoneGap is funded by a grant from MIT. Open source. "PhoneGaps lets developers wrap web applications inside a native application using WebKit, making development easier for those who aren't familiar with Objective-C and Cocoa. In fact, the framework even includes a tool for easily doing this type of "native web app" packaging. And if a native web app wrapper sounds like it would be right up your alley, you can download PhoneGap for free and give it a whirl."

In an interview with Bloomberg News, Samson Hu, chief of Asus' Eee PC business, said Asus has assigned engineers to develop an Android-based netbook by the end of the year -- though he said it hasn't decided whether to ship such a product. But in this economy, would any company waste expensive engineering on a project that might not ship? I don't think so. Android makes sense for Asus, which has already shown a willingness to back a Linux maverick. As for applications, the wide array of open-source software that all Linux distributions share would be available, but so would Google's Chrome Web browser and its wealth of Web-based applications. You can bet those are going to work very well with Android/Chrome. I'm sure Asus won't be alone in adopting Android. According to Barclays Capital analyst Israel Hernandez, netbooks are the one bright spot in the PC market. Android just makes them cheaper and more profitable.

A Computational Knowledge Engine for the Web In a nutshell, Wolfram and his team have built what he calls a "computational knowledge engine" for the Web. OK, so what does that really mean? Basically it means that you can ask it factual questions and it computes answers for you. It doesn't simply return documents that (might) contain the answers, like Google does, and it isn't just a giant database of knowledge, like the Wikipedia. It doesn't simply parse natural language and then use that to retrieve documents, like Powerset, for example. Instead, Wolfram Alpha actually computes the answers to a wide range of questions -- like questions that have factual answers such as "What country is Timbuktu in?" or "How many protons are in a hydrogen atom?" or "What is the average rainfall in Seattle this month?," "What is the 300th digit of Pi?," "where is the ISS?" or "When was GOOG worth more than $300?" Think about that for a minute. It computes the answers. Wolfram Alpha doesn't simply contain huge amounts of manually entered pairs of questions and answers, nor does it search for answers in a database of facts. Instead, it understands and then computes answers to certain kinds of questions.

I posted a digg on Peter Glaskowsky's CNET article discussing the Intel - TSMC deal. In 1995, i somehow managed to get between Intel and TSMC regarding funding for Virtual Realty, a video conferencing based loan origination / real estate transaction processing company that used Intel ProShare. TSMC wanted to invest a ton of money in VRi, with the idea of providing a full graphical listing, brokerage and transaction service for all of Asia. Intel needed a business model proving the value of ProShare, and capable of putting down the basics of a wide bandwidth video conferencing communications-data network they could grow into a platform.

At first this seemed to me like a win-win for everyone. Then i found out how seriously pissed Intel was about TSMC's deal with ViA and the resulting "WinBook". Although this is not the time or place to tell the story, i was truly stunned and shocked when i saw the Intel-TSMC deal announcement. Wow!

My response to Peter focuses on his comments about how this deal will impact Nvidia. And then, how the Nvidia vision of an ION-Atom motherboard impacts WebKit and the future of the Open Web.

Here we sit at the dawn of "The Age of Visual Computing" and Intel makes a deal with their arch enemy, low cost-high volume SOC producer TSMC. Peter Glaskowsky argues that the Intel-TSMC alliance announced earlier this week is a good thing for both companies, but not for the reasons stated by Intel. Peter discusses Intel's problem of competing with low margin manufactures like TSCM. He walks through the challenges and options Intel has, describing why this is a killer deal for both Intel and TSMC. The losers however are Nvidia, ViA and ARM. Great discussion! Looks to me like Intel is very concerned about Nvidia and the ION-Atom motherboard. So much so that they are willing to risk a massive anti-trust action.
There are a number of articles and comments at the diigo "Future of the Web" group discussing Nvidia's Jen-Hsun Huang, the ION-Atom motherboard, and Jen's "Age of Visual Computing" vision. His views on legacy x86 CPU processing power and why we need a combined GPU-CPU architecture are fascinating. Soon enough, i expect to see a netbook running the Google Android OS on a ION-Atom or ION-ViA motherboard. What a day that's going to be.

NVIDIA today introduced a new platform, based on the NVIDIA Tegra 600 Series computer-on-a-chip that enables a $99, always-on, always-connected HD mobile internet device (MID) that can go days between battery charges.

Tegra integrates an ARM processor with GeForce graphics. The goal is to bring PC-like graphics to small devices like an Android phone. It's not an end-user product yet. NVIDIA says its platform will enable OEMs to quickly build and bring to market devices that carriers can offer for as low as $99 and deliver mobile HD content.

Looks like Nvidia is not going to wait around for Intel. They are pushing forward into a wireless "always on" world of visual computing. This article discusses the ViA-Nvidia ION effort as well as the ION Android. I'm wondering when mulit-media Linux vendor "Archos" will announce a deal with Nvidia ION? Archos has announced a Android tablet, but it's based on the ARM processor.

This is a must see discussion!!!! Especially if you've seen the Ted Nelson series of talks at Google. (Ted Nelson invented Hypertext, and continues to promote the XANDU view of highly graphical and interactive computing based on an advanced "digital" document model). Jen-Hsu fully embraces the sugarplum document model, dissing i a gentle way the legacy of x86 text-number processing designed to replace typewritters and calculators to produce the same printed document.

Nvidia has also announced an ION based board optimized for the Google Android Mobile-Telecommunications OS!

Like someone finding out that the rapture has happened, and they've been left behind, Tim O'Reilly shakes his fists and shouts to the heavens that Amazon must support open standards. He argues that in-spite of incredible market success, the Amazon Kindle will fail because the document format is not Open. He even argues that Apple, with the iPod and iPhone, have figured out how to blend Open Web formats and application development with proprietary hardware initiatives....

"The Amazon Kindle has sparked huge media interest in e-books and has seemingly jump-started the market. Its instant wireless access to hundreds of thousands of e-books and seamless one-click purchasing process would seem to give it an enormous edge over other dedicated e-book platforms. Yet I have a bold prediction: Unless Amazon embraces open e-book standards like epub, which allow readers to read books on a variety of devices, the Kindle will be gone within two or three years."

TO points to ePub as an open format, apparently not realizing the format falls far short of Open Web advances designed to enable a complete publication-typesetter model. The WebKit and Mozilla open source communities are pushing the envelope of Open Web development with an extremely advanced document model based on HTML5, CSS3, SVG/Canvas, and JavaScript4+. ePub on the other hand is stuck in 1998, supporting the aging HTML4 - CSS2.1 specs. Very sad.

"The Bespin project, which aims to develop a browser-based IDE, has attracted significant attention in the Web development community. Ars looks at some of the buzz around Bespin and the project's innovative use of the HTML canvas element.........." Good stuff here. The Bespin project started off as a JavaScript code editor written in JavaScript, but the really exciting part looks to be the innovative use of the canvas element and the JavaScript API for drawing. There is also the development of using Bespin as a Web page editor using the new canvas text rendering API! One of the advantages Flash has over WebKit is the proliferation of SWF based IDE's. Silverlight will similarly have an excellent collection of IDE's. There are no WebKit - Canvas based IDE's today, but Bespin will perhaps change that. I can also imagine that many of the Flash based IDE's like Swifft tools and my favorite, "SwishMAX", could provide multiple vector graphics; including Canvas! Note that Adobe is scheduled to discontinue all support for SVG this coming March of 2009, moving everything to the proprietary SWF.

The recent announcements by Microsoft detailing Windows Mobile (WM) 6.5 and to a lesser degree WM 7.0 have left many questioning the continued relevance of Windows Mobile in the future.  The incremental update to WM has been received as expected with some excited for the future and others declaring "too little, too late."  Take the next version of WM as you will, Microsoft faces a great challenge to keep WM relevant in today's smartphone market"...... Good discussion about Microsoft's failure to show at the Barcelona World Mobility Conference with anything worth talking about. Apple doesn't even show up, but the iPhone dominates all discussions! So what's up with Microsoft? Have they finally dropped the ball on the device end of their emerging Web platform? I've posted a lengthy comment about WebKit, the iPhone and the emergence of a next generation visual document model that also works as a Web application.

Excellent commentary from Nova Spivak; about as well thought out a discussion as i've ever seen concerning the future of the desktop. Nova sees the emergence of a WebOS, most likely based on JavaScript. This article set off a fire storm of controversy and discussion, but was quickly lost in the dark days of late August/September of 2008, where news of the subsequent collapse of the world financial system and the fear filled USA elections dominated everything. Too bad. this is great stuff. ..... "Everything is moving to the cloud. As we enter the third decade of the Web we are seeing an increasing shift from native desktop applications towards Web-hosted clones that run in browsers. For example, a range of products such as Microsoft Office Live, Google Docs, Zoho, ThinkFree, DabbleDB, Basecamp, and many others now provide Web-based alternatives to the full range of familiar desktop office productivity apps. The same is true for an increasing range of enterprise applications, led by companies such as Salesforce.com, and this process seems to be accelerating. In addition, hosted remote storage for individuals and enterprises of all sizes is now widely available and inexpensive. As these trends continue, what will happen to the desktop and where will it live?" .... Is the desktop of the future going to just be a web-hosted version of the same old-fashioned desktop metaphors we have today? ..... The desktop of the future is going to be a hosted web service ..... The Browser is Going to Swallow Up the Desktop ...... The focus of the desktop will shift from information to attention ...... Users are going to shift from acting as librarians to acting as daytraders. ...... The Webtop will be more social and will leverage and integrate collective intelligence ....... The desktop of the future is going to have powerful semantic search and social search capabilities built-in ....... Interactive shared spaces will replace folders ....... The Portable Desktop ........ The Sma

Good article discussing the rapid advance of a WebOS for Web Applications based on the WebKit JavaScript model. Author focuses on Apple's SproutCore - Object C framework, but provides a very broad scope of discussion. Interesting stuff concerning the relationship between JavaScript, the SproutCore Framework, and Ruby. I found the link to this at the ReadWriteWeb story, "The Future of the Desktop" ........ "Desktop web applications offer the convenience of desktop applications and the interconnected power of web applications. This article looks at what they are, how they may evolve and focuses on Sproutcore, an open source framework for building them: The Internet is still evolving and the familiar struggle over who will control the platform of future web applications is still ongoing. Companies like Microsoft and Adobe provide platforms that build slick web applications but their aim is to dominate with proprietary systems that will effectively replace the browser. On the other side you have Google and Apple who have developed or support open web standards for developing web applications. If the proprietary companies win, future web applications could be locked into their systems and the incredible innovation that has driven the web to date may begin to falter.

Flash versus Open: Perhaps one thing we can all agree on is that the future of the web, mobile or otherwise, will be more or less open. That would be HTML, MP3, H.264, HE-AAC, and so on. These are not propriatery Adobe products, they are open standards…unlike Flash. In confusing codecs with UI, Wilson keeps asking, "why is it tha[t] most streaming audio and video on the web comes through flash players and not html5 based players?" The answer is rather pedestrian: HTML5 is just ramping up, but Flash IDE has been around for many years. Selling Flash IDE and back-end server tools has been a commercial focus for Adobe, while Apple, for example, hasn't paid much attention to QuickTime technologies and promotion in ages. It's thus reflected in adoption patterns. Hopefully, this summary will clear Wilson's blind spot: Apple is betting on open technologies (as it makes money on hardware) while Adobe (which only sells software) is betting on wrapping up content in a proprietary shackle called Flash.

Rick Jelliffe posts a frank view of the OOXML compatibility framework, a document I've studied myself in the past. There is much that is laudable about the framework, but there are also aspects that are troublesome. Jelliffe identifies one red flag item, the freedom for a vendor to "proprietize" OOXML using the MustUnderstand attribute and offers some suggestions for lessening that danger through redrafting of the spec. One issue he does not touch, however, is the Microsoft Open Specification Promise covenant not to sue, a deeply flawed document in terms of anyone implementing OOXML other than Microsoft. Still, there is so much prior art for the OOXML compatibility framework that I doubt any patent reading on it would survive judicial review. E.g., a highly similar framework has been implemented in WordPerfect since version 6.0. and the OOXML framework is remarkably similar to the compatibility framework specified by OASIS OpenDocument 1.0 but subsequently gutted at ISO. The Jelliffe article offers a good overview of factors that must be considered in designing a standard's compatibility framework. For those that go on to read the compatibility framework's specification, keep in mind that in several places the document falsely claims that it is an interoperability framework. It is not. It is a framework designed for one-way transfer of data, not interoperability which involves round-trip 2-way of exchange of data without data loss.

The question that seems more important than all the rest is "Can I afford to switch vendors?" Let's consider some examples. When printers wear out, you can buy new printers from whoever with little concern for switching cost. If you're unhappy with your current servers, you can replace them with models from lots of vendors (Sun, Dell, HP, IBM, others) without worrying too much about compatibility (well, you may have some racking and cabling pain); the issues are price, performance, and support. If you're grouchy about your OS, you can move between *n*x flavors like Debian, SUSE, and Solaris pretty freely in most (granted, not all) cases; with maybe some deployment and sysadmin pain. If you're unhappy with your desktop environment, well too bad, you're stuck. Your users are too deeply bought into some combination of Outlook calendaring and Excel macros and Sharepoint collab. The price of rebuilding the whole environment is simply too high for most businesses to consider. If you're unhappy with your Oracle licensing charges, you probably have to suck it up and deal with it. SQL is a good technology but a lousy standard, offering near-zero interoperability; the cost of re-tooling your apps so they'll run on someone else's database is probably unthinkable. Like they say, you date your systems vendor but you marry Larry Ellison.

To sum up: character encoding is complicated, and it has not been made any easier by several decades of poorly written software used by copy-and-paste-educated authors. You should always specify a character encoding on every HTML document, or bad things will happen. You can do it the hard way (HTTP Content-Type header), the easy way ( declaration), or the new way ( attribute), but please do it. The web thanks you. Good post, lots of links to other "MUST READ" commentaries and explanations of character encoding. Including Joel Spolsky and Tim Bray.

Response to Eric Lai's article, "Eyeing Intel, Nvidia's ION wins three votes of confidence".