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Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern has issued a stark warning on the consequences of rejecting the EU treaty as the latest poll shows a narrowing gap between the yes and no side. A no vote would have "repercussions that would do immense damage to Ireland," and would be a "disaster for the country," he said on Sunday (27 April), according to the Irish Times.

The government is increasingly concerned that farmers may exercise their anger about current world trade negotiations during the treaty vote. The leader of the Irish Farmers Association, Padraig Walshe, has repeatedly connected the two issues.

The French government on Wednesday (23 April) approved plans for constitutional reform that would scrap the obligation for France to hold a referendum on any further enlargement of the EU after Croatia.

The 2005 referendum clause was seen as particularly targeted at Turkey and a bid to reassure public opinion and increase the chances of a yes vote in the upcoming referendum on the EU constitutional treaty. However, it would also have affected all western Balkan countries – apart from Croatia - which are hoping to join the EU in the near future. Under the proposal adopted by the ministers yesterday, the decision on whether or not to approve a country's accession to the EU can be taken either by referendum, or by the French Congress – a body comprising the country's National Assembly and the Senate – which would have to approve it by a three-fifths majority.

A total of 53.4% of Irish voters rejected the Lisbon Treaty, with just 46.6% voting in its favour. Turnout was not as low as initially predicted with 53.1% of the electorate turning up at the urns.  With a total of 862,415 votes against, the Lisbon Treaty, which would have affected all the EU's 495 million citizens, was effectively rejected by 0.175% of the bloc's population, throwing the EU into an existential crisis. 

Europe will this week try and pick up the political pieces following Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty, but the relatively high turnout at the ballot box, the wide margin and the jumble of reasons for the No vote mean an exit strategy will be hard to find.

Scrambling for a solution The next few days are likely to everyone "scrambling" for a legal solution to the quandary, an EU diplomat told EUobserver adding that there is no answer stored away in a "vault" somewhere. Germany's foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said "[The question is whether] Ireland for a certain time can clear the way for an integration of the remaining 26 [member states]." But all countries need to ratify the Lisbon Treaty for it to come into force. UK liberal MEP Andrew Duff and constitutional affairs expert said attempts to find some sort of legal half-way house are "nonsense."

The EU ship of state has just been holed just above the waterline. While it is unlikely to sink, it could take in water, start listing, and eventually become very difficult to steer.

One of the biggest losers in the wake of the Irish referendum will be the EU's enlargement plans, insofar as they have existed. Pierre Moscovici, one of the leaders of the French opposition Socialist Party and a former Europe Minister, made that point in Paris on June 9. "I think that globally, an Irish 'no' would mean that the European Union would no longer be in a position to pursue further its policy of enlargement," Moscovici said. "For institutional reasons in the first place, because the Treaty of Nice -- I know this, because I was one its negotiators -- is designed for up to 28 [member states]. After that, we'll be in 'no man's land.'" Of the current candidates, only Croatia would be guaranteed entry under existing rules.

In the aftermath of the Irish 'no' to the Lisbon Treaty, European institutions are yet again confronted with their failure to communicate the benefits of Europe with citizens, Commission Vice-President Margot Wallström and Parliament Vice President Alejo Vidal-Quadras told EurActiv on two separate occasions.

The Commission Vice President also stressed the role of new technologies. “In France, people suddenly realised the importance of the internet during the [French 2005] referendum. I'll keep talking about using the internet more, but traditional leaders are used to traditional channels."

The European Commission has called for ratification of the Lisbon treaty to continue, despite the No result in Ireland's referendum. "This vote should not be seen as a vote against the EU… [It] has not solved the problems which the Lisbon Treaty is designed to solve," commission president Jose Manuel Barroso said in Brussels on Friday (13 June).

"The ratification process is made up of 27 national processes, 18 Member States have already approved the Treaty, and the European Commission believes that the remaining ratifications should continue to take their course," he added.

In a joint statement later on, France and Germany also called for the ratification of the Lisbon treaty to continue. "The ratification procedure has already been achieved in 18 countries. Therefore we hope that the other member states will continue the process," the Franco-German declaration reads. Britain has already said it would press ahead with the ratification, according to the BBC.

In a resounding defeat for the treaty, only ten out of 43 Irish constituencies voted in favour of the Lisbon Treaty. A majority of Irish people - 53.4 percent - voted against the EU's Lisbon treaty in Thursday's referendum, while 46.6 percent voted in favour, according to final results released Friday (13 June). Participation was at 53.13 percent.

Labour: 'Lisbon is dead' His Yes coalition ally, Labour leader Eamon Gilmore, however disagreed with Mr Cowen that it should be "full-steam ahead". "The Lisbon Treaty is dead," he said in a separate RTE interview. "Ireland cannot ratify it – therefore Lisbon falls." "This has to be recognised by everybody – by the Taoiseach [the Irish prime minister], by other member states." "This proposal is now gone." Other Irish politicians were scornful of the idea of continued ratification. European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso earlier in the afternoon had said the remaining ratifications "should continue to take their course."

The French Senate's foreign affairs and defence committee on Wednesday (11 June) moved to scrap a clause introduced by parliamentarians in May that would have made it compulsory to hold a referendum on EU membership of large countries, in particular Turkey. The committee said that the provision introduced by the National Assembly as an amendment to a constitutional reform package "could appear to be directed against a friendly state and ally of France, that is Turkey," and is "likely to cause grave harm to diplomatic relations between France and this country."

The final decision will be taken in July when the upper and lower houses gather for a congress meeting. The text has to be agreed by a three-fifths majority.

There is great fear in the hearts of treaty supporters on the continent that the Irish, who have benefited from EU largesse arguably more than any other member state, may spurn their benefactor once again as they did when they rejected the Nice Treaty seven years ago.

On 1 July 2008, France takes over the EU's six-month rotating presidency from Slovenia with an exceptionally busy agenda. According to a French diplomat in Brussels, "this presidency is the heaviest one of all the history of the European Union in terms of workload".

"For the first time, you have this coincidence of a heavier Union but there is also the end of the political mandate of the Commission and Parliament as well as the end of the [ratification process of] the Lisbon Treaty. You never had all these things together."

Irish referendum on everyone's minds The outcome of the Irish referendum on 12 June will undoubtedly have a considerable impact on the Presidency's schedule. 

Goulard also called on Irish politicians to face up to "their responsibilities" by coming up with solutions to the crisis. "We are again witnessing an amalgam where critics say Brussels irritates, that people do not want Europe, when in fact the people responsible for this slip are rather to be found in the national capitals." "We had a prime minister who said he had not read the treaty, an Irish European commissioner who said the same," she pointed out. And if Irish voters were being made to believe that the treaty influences Ireland's sovereignty on abortion, defence or tax policy, it is because Irish politicians failed to explain the text properly, which was considered by voters to be too complex. "These issues were not considered in the treaty," Goulard points out. "We can therefore measure how much the Irish political class failed in its mission to explain [the treaty]."

The latest poll in Ireland has revealed a shock swing to the "no" side ahead of next week's vote on the EU's Lisbon treaty. Carried out for the Irish Times, the TNS/mrbi poll shows that those saying they intend to vote "no" has almost doubled to 35 percent (up 17 points) since their last survey three weeks ago.

The poll revealed a clear socio-economic divide, with a majority of better-off voters intending to vote "yes," and a majority among the working class planning a "no" vote. Meanwhile, older voters tended to be more positive towards the treaty, but there was only a majority of "yes" supporters among the over-50s. The survey's result comes despite the fact that Ireland's main political parties all support the treaty, and shows there will have to be a large swing before the 12 June vote if it is to result in a "yes."

Ireland's biggest farmers' group on Tuesday (3 June) said it would encourage its members to vote in favour of the EU Lisbon treaty in a referendum on 12 June, with the decision expected to boost the "yes" side's result.

The IFA decision is seen as crucial, as polls have been indicating a narrow gap between the "yes" and "no" supporters, and the agricultural sector is still an important part of Irish society. The IFA represents 85,000 farming families engaged in agricultural activity. The farmers' backing came after Irish prime minister Brian Cowen indicated he would veto EU approval of any world trade deal that would go against their interests.

The lower house of the French parliament on Thursday (29 May) approved an amendment to constitutional reforms that could make it compulsory for France to hold a referendum on large countries joining the EU, in a move targeting Turkey. Under the amendment tabled by Jean-Luc Warsmann – a deputy from the centre-right UMP party - holding a referendum would be obligatory to approve the EU accession of any country whose population surpasses five percent of the EU population (about 500 million people).

Ukraine also affected Besides Turkey, the amendment would also affect EU hopeful Ukraine with its some 46 million inhabitants.

After the Irish rejection featured in several diverse discussions throughout this week's plenary session in Strasbourg, the assembly held a debate dedicated exclusively to the issue on Wednesday (18 June).

With all eyes on the EU leaders' summit in Brussels on Thursday, Janez Lenarcic, secretary of state for European affairs for Slovenia, currently chairing the 27-strong bloc, told MEPs that the continued ratification of the treaty looks likely to be supported by all participants at the top-level meeting. "The presidency has held talks with countries which have not yet ratified the treaty, and it is quite encouraging to see that those countries are ready to continue the ratification process," said Mr Lenarcic. The same approach was advocated by the European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, who argued that the energy the EU had put in to drawing up its internal reform "cannot go to waste."

The various and often conflicting groups that made up the multi-headed No campaign in Ireland want any European institutional interpretation of why Irish people voted the way they did to take on board their key demands. The groups, particularly those on the left, are worried that European leaders are already cooking up protocols on "non-institutional issues" that can be bolted on to the treaty to ensure its passage in a possible second referendum.

"A couple of protocols, whether on neutrality or taxes is not enough because the very heart of the Lisbon Treaty will not have been changed in any way," said Patricia McKenna, a former Green MEP for Ireland and leader of the People's Movement, one of the main No campaign groups.

On the weekend, the European commission organised a 'flash' poll of 2000 Irish voters to find out the reasons behind their vote. According to the Irish Independent, more than 70 percent of those who voted No did so because they thought the treaty could be renegotiated. The unreleased survey also found that many people who do not normally vote in elections turned out this time, that people who said they did not understand the treaty tended to vote No; and that increased immigration played a role in the No vote.

The leader of the Socialists in the European Parliament, Martin Schultz, has accused Irish EU commissioner Charlie McCreevy of "arrogance" for his public revelations that he had not read the Lisbon Treaty and for a visit to the US just ahead of the referendum in Ireland.

We have to ask Mr Barroso what kind of people he has in his commission, particularly if you have someone acting as the deregulation Pope in Europe who then goes home and says he hasn't read the treaty and doesn't understand it," Mr Schultz told reporters on Tuesday (17 June). He was reacting to several statements of Mr McCreevy, who is in charge of internal market in the 27-member-strong European Commission, ahead of the only popular vote on the new EU reform treaty in Ireland held last week, in which the Irish rejected the document. The commissioner admitted a lack of knowledge of details of the treaty in an interview with the EUobserver, saying he had only read most of a summary of the document.

Moreover, the German Socialist leader criticised the EU executive for tabling proposals on rising oil prices the day after - rather than before - the referendum in Ireland, saying he was "amazed" that it had happened.