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dani tav

Wonkbook: Debt limit vote, part I - Ezra Klein - The Washington Post - 1 views

www.washingtonpost.com/...AGKSoMFH_blog.html

Government Spending Budget Cuts debt Housing Price

shared by dani tav on 31 May 11 - No Cached
  • a proposal Tuesday that would increase the nation’s ability to borrow money without also making major cuts in federal spending
  • initial request that the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling be lifted without any accompanying spending reductions
  • politically impossible.
  • ...7 more annotations...
  • o get my vote on the debt ceiling..Medicare will be a part of it
  • argued against using $80 billion in taxpayer dollars to try to save General Motors Co., Chrysler and many of their suppliers."
  • economists largely predicted the U.S. recovery would ramp back up as short-term disruptions such as higher gas prices, bad weather and supply problems in Japan subsided
  • he ownership rate is now back to the level of 1998, and some housing experts say it could decline to the level of the 1980s or even earlier
  • Cutting tax breaks for retirement won't raise a lot of money;
  • economy
  • medical school free
dani tav

Ontario Tories vow to cut government spending $600 million - 0 views

www.vancouversun.com/...story.html

Govenment Tax cuts Conservative

shared by dani tav on 31 May 11 - No Cached
  • Conservative government would cut $600 million in government spending in its first full year in office
  • he party says the cuts — which
  • cuts — which will reach $2.3 billion
  • ...3 more annotations...
  • reducing the size of government, forcing unions to compete for government contracts and reducing red tape on business
  • introduce forced manual labour for prisoners.
  • make it illegal to raise taxes without a clear mandate
naheekim

Canada's mortgage debt surpasses $1T for first time - CTV News - 3 views

www.ctv.ca/...mortgage-debt-101108

mortgage debt

shared by naheekim on 26 May 11 - No Cached
  • Canadians are carrying more mortgage debt than ever before, with the total crossing the $1 trillion threshold for the first time
  • Canada's total outstanding mortgage debt was $1.0008 trillion as of August 2010.
  • "Over the past 15 years, the volume of outstanding residential mortgages has expanded by 194 per cent, or a growth rate of 7.5 per cent per year,"
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • From 2004 to 2008 Canada's mortgage debt was growing at a rate of 10 per cent per year, but eased off as a result of the recession and hit 7.6 per cent in the most recent 12 month period
  • The report paints a positive picture of Canada's mortgage market, saying Canadian homeowners are comfortable with their mortgage debt, have "significant equity" and could even handle an increase in their interest rate.
  • In terms of interest rates, the report found that the average rate is 4.22 per cent, down from 4.55 per cent a year earlier. Among those who have financed or renewed a mortgage in the past year, the rate is 3.75 per cent.
  • Accordin g to the survey, 84 per cent of Canadians could afford an increase of $300 per month or more.
  • About 6 per cent of homeowners would have trouble with an increase of less than 1 per cent of their interest rate payment, and a further 5 per cent would have trouble with an increase of between 1 and 1.49 per cent
alex yesikov

Tag, You're It! Too Big to Fail Risk Transferred, Not Eliminated - Daniel Indiviglio - ... - 2 views

www.theatlantic.com/...239414

Systemic Risk USA Banks Financial Crisis 2008 Too big to fail

shared by alex yesikov on 30 May 11 - No Cached
  • Whenever we think of giant firms that a government feels it must bailout, big banks generally come to mind. Sure, an insurance company sneaked in there too, but AIG might have been more of an exception, since it so grossly underestimated the risks it was taking on its financial products and lived in a grey regulatory area. Although last summer's giant financial regulation bill sought to eliminate the systemic risk that led to a crisis a few years ago, it may have merely transferred some of it, creating a new breed of too big to fail firms
  • Those who understand the crisis know that derivatives were involved, particularly through AIG. It needed to be bailed out, because it did not have enough capital on hand to back up the credit default swaps agreements it had written. A large number of those were tied to the housing market, which caused the crisis.
  • In order to avoid this problem derivatives pose in the future, new financial regulation demands that all derivatives are cleared, when possible. For those who aren't familiar with clearing, the general idea is that each derivative is matched with an equal, opposite derivative through a central bookkeeper -- a clearing house -- to net out the risk they pose (more explanation with a lengthy analogy here).
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • For example, imagine if AIG had cleared all of its credit default swaps. In theory, that means a clearing house would have ensured that the insurer had ample cash (or other collateral) on hand to satisfy their payouts.
alex yesikov

Governments Are The Primary Creators Of Systemic Risk - Charles Kadlec - Community of L... - 2 views

blogs.forbes.com/...mary-creators-of-systemic-risk

Greece Systemic Risk Blog Resession Euro

shared by alex yesikov on 30 May 11 - No Cached
  • The greatest lesson of the still young 21st century is proving to be that governments are the primary source of systemic risk to the economy, our standard of living, and our liberty.
  • The latest case in point is the European government debt crisis, with Greece once again running out of money and threatening to trigger yet another financial crisis.  The government’s debt now totals more than 150% of its GDP, and continues to grow.  Last year’s bailout by other European governments was supposed to give it the time needed to reduce its budget deficits so that next year Greece could roll over its maturing debts, as well as finance additional deficits at interest rates under 6%. However, the government’s austerity plan of tax increases and budget cuts has not reduced current or projected government deficits because the economy in 2010 contracted by 4.5% and the unemployment rate jumped to 15%.
  • Normally, this would be a matter between a debtor and its creditors. However, European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board Member Juergen Stark warns that the effects of restructuring “could overshadow the effects of the Lehman bankruptcy,” which is associated with the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis.
  • ...3 more annotations...
  • This risk is amplified by special rules created by politicians that encourage banks to lend freely to governments.
  • In the case of Greece, government actions and regulations also lie at the heart of what threatens to be a European financial crisis.
  • Here’s how it works. Governments require banks to hold capital against the loans that they make, anticipating that in the normal course of business, some of the loans will not be repaid.  The riskier the loan, the more capital that needs to be held in reserve. However, under international rules negotiated by government representatives through the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), government loans fit into a special category that has a 0% risk requirement.  That means European banks do not have to hold any reserves against loans they make to European governments.  That’s right, politicians implicitly promised banks that governments would never default.  And, given the opportunity to make “risk free” loans that require no capital commitment, bankers purchased mountains of government debt.
alex yesikov

Collapsing Political Support Threatens Euro; Systemic Risk Threatens World Markets - Se... - 0 views

seekingalpha.com/...c-risk-threatens-world-markets

Systemic Risk Greece Euro

shared by alex yesikov on 30 May 11 - No Cached
  • Per a Reuters article Wednesday, EU banks are stuck with over 100 bln euros of Greek government debt they’re unable to sell, hedge or ignore. However the ECB is in the same situation, and holds so much Greek debt that a default would mean the ECB would need a bailout.
  • No one wants to buy the bonds even at record low prices, and insuring the debt is too expensive to be worthwhile.
  • Thus the banks, at least the big ones, can do nothing but hope that when the default comes, be it full or partial, they will be bailout out along with the ECB as an unavoidable step to maintaining economic stability in the EU.
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • That will mean, one way or another: Lots of money printing, a falling EUR and thus likely a rising USD
Dmitri Tkachenko

As Canadians get older, economy gets weaker - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

www.theglobeandmail.com/...article2039511

Aging Unemployment Slowing economy

shared by Dmitri Tkachenko on 30 May 11 - No Cached
  • Dmitri Tkachenko on 30 May 11
     
    "Statistics Canada projection shows a sharp decrease that will continue for at least the next 20 years. Employment growth since 1976 has averaged 1.6 per cent a year, while the population grew at a rate of 1.1 per cent. That extra half a percentage point added roughly 0.3-0.4 percentage points to the average growth rate of real per capita income above what it would have been otherwise. Not only is this source of growth about to disappear, demographic aging is going to start being a negative contributor to economic growth: fewer workers mean less output. One of the first places we'll see the effects of population aging is its effect on the government budget balance. Higher output per worker would help compensate for a reduction in the number of workers, so productivity will become an increasingly important policy priority. But in the short and medium term, there is no quick fix. "
Dmitri Tkachenko

Loonie rises as greenback slips back - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

www.theglobeandmail.com/...article2038052

Canadian currency Home buyers Income and spending

shared by Dmitri Tkachenko on 30 May 11 - No Cached
  • Dmitri Tkachenko on 30 May 11
     
    "The Canadian dollar gained 0.14 of a cent to $1.0232 (U.S.).The Canadian currency has drifted lower for the past four weeks, partly on signs of further weakness in the U.S. economy. Data from the U.S. Commerce Department, released Thursday, showed that the economy grew at a tepid annual rate of 1.8 per cent in the first quarter, lower than many economists expected. Higher prices for gasoline and weak consumer spending have held back the economy. The Labour Department also said more people applied for unemployment benefits last week. On Friday, the Commerce Department said that both personal income and spending rose 0.4 per cent in April, in line with what economists expected. But the rise in spending was the smallest in three months. Another report showed that the number of people who signed contracts to buy homes in April plunged 26.5 per cent from a year earlier."
Dmitri Tkachenko

National Bank is North Americas Strongest Bank: Bloomberg - 0 views

www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/...-strongest-bank-bloomberg.html

Canadian banks best internationally

shared by Dmitri Tkachenko on 25 May 11 - No Cached
  • Dmitri Tkachenko on 25 May 11
     
    "Canada has five banks in the top 20, with CIBC ranking 4th internationally behind National Bank. Canadian banks have "higher capital ratios than anyone else in the world," Canaccord Genuity analyst Mario Mendonca told Bloomberg. National Bank Pres. & CEO Louis Vachon told Bloomberg: "…size is not everything in financial services," and indeed it's not. National Bank's #1 North American ranking shows that prudent risk management and liquidity are meaningful and a source of confidence for investors and customers alike. Other ranking criteria included non-performing assets, loan-loss reserves, deposits-to-funding, and cost efficiency."
Dmitri Tkachenko

Surprise: Low interest rates seen sticking around - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

www.theglobeandmail.com/...article2032075

Low Interest Rates Bonds Financial Industry Inflation Stock Market

shared by Dmitri Tkachenko on 25 May 11 - No Cached
  • Dmitri Tkachenko on 25 May 11
     
    "Interest rates have recently being going somewhere unexpected: down. With the United States government bumping up against its debt ceiling, inflation ticking upward, and a growing debt crisis in Europe, most expected interest rates to be increasing.If so, it will mean pain for savers, but good news for borrowers .A drop in interest rates is equivalent to a sale on the price of money, and corporations are already rushing to take advantage of the easy lending conditions, even if they're in no immediate need of funds. Mortgage rates have fallen, too - good news for homeowners looking to refinance. But lower rates have not turned out so well for some of the market's savviest players, including Bill Gross, the founder of Pimco, the world's biggest bond fund. Earlier this year, he sold his U.S. Treasuries, because he thought interest rates were poised to rocket higher, which would drive down prices of bonds. Oil has been trading consistently around the $100-a-barrel level, thereby lifting inflation, another bond-market negative. Investors are getting nervous and growing more willing to buy super-safe government bonds."
Dmitri Tkachenko

Back in the green: CEO pay jumps 13 per cent - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

www.theglobeandmail.com/...article2039083

CEO performance unit shares high salaries

shared by Dmitri Tkachenko on 30 May 11 - No Cached
  • Dmitri Tkachenko on 30 May 11
     
    "The economic downturn in 2008 and 2009 was a distant memory by 2010 for Canada's top chief executive officers, at least as far as their pay packages were concerned. A Globe and Mail review of executive pay last year shows CEOs at Canada's 100 largest companies saw their compensation jump 13 per cent last year, led higher by a 20-per-cent increase in annual cash bonuses. Base salaries climbed 4 per cent. Instead, many gains for CEOs came from better economic performance by companies, which boosted variable elements of pay like cash bonuses. They can also be worthless. If the company performs in the bottom quarter of the peer group, and earns a negative return over three years, none of the share units vest for the executives. "
naheekim

Housing prices to drop 25%, forecaster predicts - thestar.com - 2 views

www.thestar.com/...to-drop-25-over-next-few-years

Housing Prices Recession

shared by naheekim on 28 May 11 - No Cached
  • House prices in Canada will fall over the next several years by as much as 25 per cent, creating a massive impact on the economy and possibly pushing the country into recession, says a forecast
  • predicting house prices will fall by a cumulative 25 per cent over the next several years
  •  Madani says the effects on consumer spending and housing investment could be significant and perhaps strong enough to “push the economy into another recession
  • ...7 more annotations...
  • “If house prices are to fall, there needs to be a mechanism — an excess of supply relative to demand,”
  • Last year, the Canadian Real Estate Association modified its forecasts at least four times. After initially predicting housing prices would increase in 2011, it now says prices will fall by 1.3 per cent — far below the eye-catching 25 per cent forecast by Capital Economics.
  • Financial agencies such as the Canadian Mortgage Housing Corporation, which provides mortgage loan insurance, could also be exposed to significant losses
  • The Capital Economics forecast is not the first to predict a bubble in the Canadian market. Gluskin Sheff & Associates chief economist David Rosenberg has also predicted a 25 per cent drop in Canadian housing prices, as has The Economist magazine.
  • As in the U.S., financial innovation and very low interest rates have allowed Canadian consumers to take on more debt, and house prices are high relative to income
  • However, consumers have remained complacent because low rates are keeping mortgage payments low.
  • The historical home price-to-income ratio is 3.5, but now it's hovering around the 5.5 mark, meaning average house prices are more than five times the income of workers
  • naheekim on 28 May 11
     
    The economists and forcasters are predicting that housing prices will decrease over the next several years by 25%.
naheekim

Canadian household debt swells to $1.3 trillion - CBC News - 1 views

www.cbc.ca/...canada-household-debt854.html

household debt credit debt

shared by naheekim on 26 May 11 - No Cached
  • Canadians are increasingly relying on credit cards and credit lines to finance day-to-day expenditures, and the total national household debt in Canada has reached an all-time high of $1.3 trillion,
  • The survey found that 42 per cent of respondents said their personal debt was rising in the past three years, and 21 per cent said they couldn't manage their debt
  • Some 58 per cent of respondents said that day-to-day living expenses are the main cause for the increasing debt.
  • ...8 more annotations...
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  • The survey interviewed 2,014 people and had a margin of error of 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
  • Third of non-retired Canadians report not saving
  • Many Canadians are not aware of how the economic downturn has impacted their financial situation and continue to load up their credit cards and lines of credit
  • The report finds that 32 per cent of non-retired respondents said they were not devoting any funds toward saving, even for retirement, up from 25 per cent in 2007
  • Of those making under $35,000 a year, 49 per cent surveyed reported that their debt levels rose in the last three years. In comparison, 42 per cent of those making $35,000 to $75,000 a year reported their debt levels rose, while 38 per cent of those making over $75,000 annually reported an increase
  • Personal lines of credit expanded to a new high of $181 billion outstanding in April, an increase of 6.2 per cent year-to-date, and up 20.4 per cent from a year earlier. This type of debt has bloated from $100 billion five years ago and less than $50 billion at the start of the decade.
  • Personal loans from banks totalled $48.5 billion, up 8.1 per cent from a year earlier, and bank credit-card receivables were up 8.9 per cent at $51.5 billion.
naheekim

Household debt continues to rise - Business - CBC News - 2 views

www.cbc.ca/...household-debt.html

household debt consumer debt credit debt

shared by naheekim on 25 May 11 - No Cached
  • Household liabilities grew by 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, compared with the same period a year ago, the slowest annual growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2002.
  • The average debt-to-personal disposable income ratio edged down to 146.8 per cent in the quarter, but only because a 1.8 per cent gain in average personal disposable income outpaced a gain in credit market debt.
  • But the rate at which Canadians piled on debt slowed, with nonmortgage credit, such as credit cards, slowing the most, at 5.8 per cent from a year ago.
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • Overall household liabilities grew by 6.5 per cent from the same period a year ago levels.
  • Household net worth per capita increased from $178,200 in the third quarter to $181,700 in the fourth quarter.
  • The rate of growth in net worth, after rebounding from the recession, has stayed in a range of between five and six per cent. That compares with a pace of between nine to 10 per cent in the five years leading up to the recession.
  • "Once interest rates start to rise over the latter half of 2011, the debt-service ratio is expected to climb substantially."
  • Measuring all debt — government, business and family — national net worth edged up 0.3 per cent to $6.3 trillion in the fourth quarter, the slowest quarterly growth of the year.
Chris Li

The Progressive Economics Forum » Garbage In, Garbage Out - 4 views

www.progressive-economics.ca/...garbage-in-garbage-out

Outsourcing Garbage Collection

shared by Chris Li on 24 May 11 - No Cached
  • contract-out garbage collection for half of the City of Toronto as soon as possible as the first step to outsourcing everything we can by next year.
  • Much of the rationale for contracting-out is that private waste collection will save the city many millions of dollars.   However, these figures are based on misinformation and distorted statistics. 
  • Toronto’s costs in 2009 were $72.22 per tonne.  Costs for Mississauga and Brampton as part of the Peel regional municipality were $106.79 per tonne.  Vaughan’s costs were $168.40 per tonne.   The other regional municipalities also had higher costs: Durham at $85.74 per tonne and Halton at  $86.79 per tonne.
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • costs for residents of Toronto for private waste collection will increase by at least 20% a year or more than $6 milllion per year and could be 50% or $16 million higher. 
  • From their estimates they claimed that Toronto could save $49 million per year from contracting-out all its waste collection. 
  • they used an econometric technique called “fixed effects regression” which effectively engineered the results they were looking for.  
  • “The most recent studies have found no difference in costs.  Cost savings from privatization erode over time….”.
Susan Cui

The Daily, Thursday, May 12, 2011. New Housing Price Index - 3 views

www.statcan.gc.ca/...dq110512a-eng.htm

Housing Price Index

shared by Susan Cui on 23 May 11 - No Cached
  • The New Housing Price Index (NHPI) was unchanged in March following a 0.4% advance in February.
  • Between February and March, prices rose the most in Saint John, Fredericton and Moncton (+0.4%) followed by the metropolitan regions of Toronto and Oshawa, Winnipeg and Regina (all three registering increases of 0.3%).
  • The most significant monthly price decreases were recorded in Québec (-0.7%), Windsor (-0.6%) and Edmonton (-0.2%).
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • Year over year, the NHPI was up 1.9% in March following a 2.1% increase in February.
  • The largest year-over-year increase was observed in St. John's (+6.2%), followed closely by Regina (+6.1%). Compared with March 2010, contractors' selling prices were also higher in Winnipeg (+4.5%) as well as in Toronto and Oshawa (+3.6%). Windsor (-4.6%), London (-1.7%), Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay (-1.3%) and Victoria (-1.2%) posted 12-month declines in March.
  • Susan Cui on 23 May 11
     
    The New Housing Price Index indicates that during the month of March, there was no change in NHPI. This was because the increase of housing prices in some metropolitan regions were offset by the decrease in housing prices in other metropolitan areas. The areas with the most significant housing price increase were Saint John, Fredericton, Moncton, metropolitan regions of Toronto, Oshawa, Winnipeg and Regina. The areas with the most housing price decrease were Quebec, Windsor and Edmonton. Increase in housing prices in some metropolitan areas were due to improving market conditions and higher material, labour, land development costs. Decrease in housing prices in other metropolitan areas were due to slower market conditions and lower land costs. Comparing to last year's NHPI in March, the NHPI went up 1.9%.
Susan Cui

Bad housing advice of the day, Philly edition | Felix Salmon - 4 views

blogs.reuters.com/...vice-of-the-day-philly-edition

Housing Price Advice Gold vs House

shared by Susan Cui on 23 May 11 - No Cached
  • house prices are falling, gold prices are rising, and therefore before you go ahead and buy a house, you should probably consider whether you’d be better off buying gold instead.
  • house prices are falling, gold prices are rising, and therefore before you go ahead and buy a house, you should probably consider whether you’d be better off buying gold instead.
  • homes are not an investment, they’re more of a consumption good.
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • Maybe you’ve saved enough for a down payment. But should you bet your money on home prices, even with a tempting low-interest, fixed-rate mortgage? Or is it financially smarter to continue renting and invest the money in an asset that could appreciate for at least another few years?
  • Being “financially smart” is not the same as investing in whichever asset gives you the highest return over some given time horizon.
  • Essentially, Arvedlund is proposing an exotic relative-value trade here: she’s saying that houses will underperform gold, or that the price of a house in gold is going to go down rather than up.
  • the price of a house in gold has gone down, and you would have been financially better off buying gold than taking that money and using it as a down-payment for a house.
Susan Cui

The Progressive Economics Forum » Housing on the knife's edge - 6 views

www.progressive-economics.ca/...ng-on-the-knife%e2%80%99s-edge

Housing Price Unstable Housing Market

shared by Susan Cui on 23 May 11 - No Cached
  • On the heels of multiple warnings from the Bank of Canada that Canadians have taken on too much household debt for comfort (we hold the dubious distinction of having the worst consumer debt to financial assets ratio among 20 OECD nations), the federal government announced
  • On the heels of multiple warnings from the Bank of Canada that Canadians have taken on too much household debt for comfort
  • the federal government announced
  • ...13 more annotations...
  • these federal changes will have the greatest effect on middle class Canadians
  • With these moves, the federal government is starting to take seriously the risk of record-high housing prices and record-high household debt.
  • It will reduce the maximum insurable amortization period from 35 years to 30 years
  • The pessimistic possibility is that trying to reign in mortgage debt and housing prices could burst the housing bubble that simultaneously exists in six Canadian cities.
  • The optimistic possibility is that reverting to pre-2006 regulations could help put a lid on house prices
  • to get back to basics and start saving again.
  • It could also force Canadians
  • Between 1980 and 2001, housing prices in four of the six major markets in Canada (Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa and Montreal) remained in a tight band of between $150,000 and $220,000 (in today’s dollars).
  • experienced three housing price declines between them brought on by interest rate hikes.
  • Toronto and Vancouver
  • When the bubbles burst, they wiped out in the worst case more than 35% of an average house’s value
  • Today it isn’t just Toronto and Vancouver; it’s all six major Canadian cities that are outside of the safety zone.
  • Canada’s housing market is still on a knife’s edge and isn’t clear which way we’ll fall.
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