Economic Challenges Research

Perrin Beatty, chief executive of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and a former Conservative cabinet minister, warned Canada's dismal productivity rate, which he said is about 25 percent below that of the United States, was the biggest problem facing exporters.

So it seems a bit of a stretch to conclude, as the DFAIT report does, that offshoring is “subdued.”

Lines of credit are the largest category of consumer debt in the country accounting for 41% of all outstanding debt though delinquency rates are very low. Line of credit debt was up 5.9% in the quarter over last to an average of $33,981. When compared to the final quarter of 2010 however, line of credit borrowing is down for the first time in several years.

This may be “an early sign that Canadians are shifting to a more conservative and restrictive form of financing to manage their debt loads,”

The GfK NOP measure showed its biggest rise in almost 20 years in May, although analysts said it may have received a temporary boost from unusually fine weather, the royal wedding and a run of public holidays.

The Hometrack survey showed that the number of new buyers registered with estate agents fell by 0.5 percent in May, the first decline since January.

The number of sales agreed rose by 1.6 percent in May, lower than the 8 percent jump seen in April and March's 12.6 percent rise.

London continued to buck the national trend, with prices up by 0.2 percent on the month.

"With concern over household finances and the wider economic outlook, demand for housing is likely to continue to post further modest declines over the summer,"

Canadians are doing a better job of managing their credit card debt which was down $25 on a year over year basis to an average of $3,539 at the end of the first quarter

irst quarter data shows a continued increase in the total debt per consumer, although the trend still remains modest compared to the double digit, pre-recession levels

Lines of credit continue to drive debt and are the largest contributor after mortgages, accounting for 41% of the outstanding debt in Canada at the end of the first. Delinquency longer than 90 days were .21%

Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate steady at just 1 per cent, citing global uncertainty and the impact of the strong Canadian dollar, but said rates must eventually rise

Annual personal credit growth slowed to a year-over-year pace of 6.4 per cent in April, compared to an average 10.9 per cent in a period spanning 2004 to 2008

The moderation in credit growth has been evident in all measures of debt

The debt-service ratio, the interest households must pay on their debt each month as a share of personal disposable income, climbed to a two-year high of 7.6 per cent in [the first quarter of] 2011, despite still record low interest rates.

housing market is improving and is better than where it stood a year ago

even the government’s own report shows that Canadian imports (of both goods and services) from the EU will increase by twice as much as Canadian exports to the EU, substantially widening the existing bilateral trade deficit.

exports grew less rapidly with FTA partners than with non-FTA partners, but imports grew quicker with FTA partners than with non-FTA partners. 

In the real world, free trade agreements (not surprisingly) tend to make existing trade imbalances even worse: this is true throughout economics, where deregulation generally tends to exacerbate the imbalances and unevenness of market outcomes.

Three scenarios are presented: one in which tariffs are mutually eliminated; one in which EU-Canada trade expands in line with the historical experience of Canada’s previous FTAs; and one in which tariff elimination is combined with the appreciation of Canada’s currency (versus the euro) which has been experienced in fact since the two parties launched free trade negotiations.  In every case, the bilateral trade balance worsens significantly (and in the third scenario, it worsens dramatically – since the higher Canadian dollar reduces Canadian exports, even as imports from the EU are surging).  Based on average employment intensity across 23 goods-producing industries, the simulations suggest an incremental loss of between 28,000 jobs (in the first scenario) and 150,000 jobs (in the third).  Direct losses in Canadian GDP range between 0.56 percent in the first scenario, and almost 3 percent in the third.

A free trade agreement with the EU will exacerbate Canada’s existing large bilateral deficit, at the expense of output and employment in many important sectors of the economy. 

Ms. Yalnizyan said the major trend she identifies is that the wealthiest Canadians are increasing their share of income at a historic pace. Looking back over the past 90 years, income is now concentrated in a way that hasn’t been seen since the 1920s, she said. In the past decade, almost a third of income growth has gone to the richest 1 per cent, she added.