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Susan Cui

Bad housing advice of the day, Philly edition | Felix Salmon - 4 views

  • house prices are falling, gold prices are rising, and therefore before you go ahead and buy a house, you should probably consider whether you’d be better off buying gold instead.
  • house prices are falling, gold prices are rising, and therefore before you go ahead and buy a house, you should probably consider whether you’d be better off buying gold instead.
  • homes are not an investment, they’re more of a consumption good.
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • Maybe you’ve saved enough for a down payment. But should you bet your money on home prices, even with a tempting low-interest, fixed-rate mortgage? Or is it financially smarter to continue renting and invest the money in an asset that could appreciate for at least another few years?
  • Being “financially smart” is not the same as investing in whichever asset gives you the highest return over some given time horizon.
  • Essentially, Arvedlund is proposing an exotic relative-value trade here: she’s saying that houses will underperform gold, or that the price of a house in gold is going to go down rather than up.
  • the price of a house in gold has gone down, and you would have been financially better off buying gold than taking that money and using it as a down-payment for a house.
Susan Cui

The Progressive Economics Forum » Housing on the knife's edge - 6 views

  • On the heels of multiple warnings from the Bank of Canada that Canadians have taken on too much household debt for comfort (we hold the dubious distinction of having the worst consumer debt to financial assets ratio among 20 OECD nations), the federal government announced
  • On the heels of multiple warnings from the Bank of Canada that Canadians have taken on too much household debt for comfort
  • the federal government announced
  • ...13 more annotations...
  • these federal changes will have the greatest effect on middle class Canadians
  • With these moves, the federal government is starting to take seriously the risk of record-high housing prices and record-high household debt.
  • It will reduce the maximum insurable amortization period from 35 years to 30 years
  • The pessimistic possibility is that trying to reign in mortgage debt and housing prices could burst the housing bubble that simultaneously exists in six Canadian cities.
  • The optimistic possibility is that reverting to pre-2006 regulations could help put a lid on house prices
  • to get back to basics and start saving again.
  • It could also force Canadians
  • Between 1980 and 2001, housing prices in four of the six major markets in Canada (Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa and Montreal) remained in a tight band of between $150,000 and $220,000 (in today’s dollars).
  • experienced three housing price declines between them brought on by interest rate hikes.
  • Toronto and Vancouver
  • When the bubbles burst, they wiped out in the worst case more than 35% of an average house’s value
  • Today it isn’t just Toronto and Vancouver; it’s all six major Canadian cities that are outside of the safety zone.
  • Canada’s housing market is still on a knife’s edge and isn’t clear which way we’ll fall.
Susan Cui

Best Way to Fix Housing Market Let Prices Fall (Fast): Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance - 3 views

  • "Fixing the housing market" is usually defined as:Stopping house prices from falling Stopping foreclosures
  • Prices. The best way to stop prices from falling is to let them fall far enough to reach equilibrium, fast.
  • Foreclosed houses are selling like hotcakes because prices are finally attractive enough to draw in new capital.
  • ...15 more annotations...
  • Un-foreclosed houses are NOT selling like hotcakes, but this is because their owners have yet faced up to the reality of how little they are worth (or, put differently, because they don't yet have to sell).
  • The vast majority of plans to "stop prices from falling" involve subsidies of one form or another (tax credits, subsidized mortgage rates, etc.)  These may slow the decline, but they won't stop it
  • subsidizing/encouraging debt-bingeing and homeownership is what got us until this mess in this first place.
  • The fastest and most effective way to stop prices from falling is to let them fall until they've reached equilibrium. And then start rebuilding wealth, equity, and economic growth from there.
  • Lots of Americans are going to lose their houses in the next few years regardless of what we do.
  • Keeping the number of foreclosures as small as possible
  • will just delay the inevitable
  • Importantly,
  • Foreclosures are caused by owners' inability to make debt payments.
  • The best way to stop foreclosures, therefore, is to get people out of houses they can't afford and into houses they CAN afford (whether by renting or buying).
  • the house-price issue
  • (No reason to buy or build now if you think prices will be cheaper tomorrow).
  • Businesses and consumers
  • open up their wallets
  • when house prices stop falling. And the fastest way to get there is to let them fall.
Heshani Makalande

Canadians to get rate hike reprieve - Moneyville.ca - 0 views

  • The Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave its key benchmark interest rate unchanged next Tuesday — and may even sit on the sidelines until September, economists say
  • Even if the central bank leaves its overnight rate unchanged at 1 per cent next week, it’s likely to again warn consumers that the clock is ticking: interest rates will be going up; it’s just a matter of when.
  • “One per cent is not normal. Everybody realizes that. Rates will go up,”
  • ...7 more annotations...
  • Late last year, and even at the beginning of 2011, economists were certain that the Bank of Canada would start increasing its overnight rate this spring. That was pushed to the summer amid continuing worries about the health of the U.S. economy.
  • Now more economists are expecting that the central bank will take a pass at its July policy meeting as well, and begin raising rates in the fall.
  • The central bank is nervously contemplating the continuing European debt restructuring, attempts by China to tame inflation, the impact that will have on commodity prices, and the still-fragile recovery in the U.S.
  • In particular, the U.S. may be susceptible to supply chain disruptions as a result of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and the resulting nuclear disaster
  • “The second quarter didn’t start well and the earthquake will weigh on the rest of the quarter. For now Q2 is not looking that great, and when the U.S. doesn’t do well, it affects Canada as well,” Rangasamy said.
  • In Canada, the economy is still expected to expand by a healthy 3.2 per cent in 2011 and 3.1 per cent in 2012, according to the Royal Bank of Canada. Inflation also remains tame, thanks in part to a buoyant loonie.
  • The central bank has been anxious to raise interest rates in order to keep a lid on household debt, which has reached record levels in Canada.
Lok-Hin Yuen

CTV News | With temporary workers, flexibility's the name of the game - 1 views

  • Weak business confidence coming out of the global credit crisis is playing a major part in keeping jobless rates at painful levels – U.S. unemployment is nine per cent while Canada is stuck above 7.5 per cent in large part because companies are wary of hiring long-term.
  • Canada’s employment-services industry is mostly temporary staffing along with permanent placements and contract staffing, according to Statscan. Revenue has climbed steadily in the past decade, and employment in the sector has jumped six per cent in the past year alone, to 158,000 people.
  • But as the industry grows around the world – staffing firms are expanding in Europe and in emerging markets such as India and China – there’s an intensifying debate over the merits of an increasingly fluid work force. Proponents say it helps both employers and workers be nimble in globally competitive markets; opponents argue it’s part of a shift toward precarious, lower-pay work.
  • ...7 more annotations...
  • Temporary workers tend to earn less than permanent staff, they get little or no benefits and many can be fired without notice
  • The earnings gap between a permanent and a contract worker is about 13 per cent, while between a permanent and casual worker the gap is about 34 per cent
  • Labour is typically a company’s most expensive cost, and a contingent labour force helps reduce costs
  • What staffing agencies dub “flexible” work, unions call “precarious.”
  • With the recession and the resulting slackness, employers are in a position where they can offer no security, no benefits, unreliable hours and lousy pay – and still have people apply. And that will persist until either the labour market picks up or we put some restrictions in place on how precarious employment works
  • Lower pay leads to weaker consumer spending, restricts workers’ ability to get a mortgage and makes it more difficult to save for the future.
  • $8.7-billionRevenue from temp industry in Canada in 2009 (up from $1-billion in 1993).158,000Number of Canadians employed in temp services in the past year, up six per cent from year earlier.13%Estimated earnings gap between a permanent worker and a temporary contract worker.
Mike Seo

Jobless rate to be at or above 7% through 2014, TD warns - The Globe and Mail - 1 views

  • Canada's jobless rate is projected to be 7.7 per cent this year, down from the 2010 level, and will ease gradually to 7.4 per cent in 2012, 7.2 per cent in 2013, and 7 per cent in 2012, Toronto-Dominion Bank economists said Tuesday in a new forecast.
  • Noting Canada's stronger-than-expected economic growth to date, TD economists said in a new quarterly report that they expected more modest growth for the rest of this year and next. "The end to federal government stimulus remains a wild card to the outlook in the second half of 2011," they said.
  • "We have incorporated a moderate drag on growth as stimulus programs are set to expire in March of this year. However, there is a risk that government spending could contract much more significantly in the second half of 2011."
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • the share of mortgage in arrears 90 days or more continued to climb through 2011.
Maria Li

Canadian consumer debt rises $1,000 per person - 1 views

  • The average debt load per Canadian consumer rose 4.5% this quarter over last year, according to new figures compiled by TransUnion
  • That works out to $1,000 per person and excludes mortgage costs.
  • Credit card, line of credit and auto-loan debt jumped most in Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador with gains of 7.8% in both provinces. Quebec's total average debt load per consumer stood at $18,025 for the quarter. Newfoundland's was $23,372. The national average is now $25,597.
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • Lines of credit are the largest category of consumer debt in the country accounting for 41% of all outstanding debt though delinquency rates are very low. Line of credit debt was up 5.9% in the quarter over last to an average of $33,981. When compared to the final quarter of 2010 however, line of credit borrowing is down for the first time in several years.
  • This may be “an early sign that Canadians are shifting to a more conservative and restrictive form of financing to manage their debt loads,”
Maria Li

Rate hikes okay for most but a 'financial shock' for many - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

  • Most Canadians should be able to handle higher interest rates expected later this year, but many will still see a "financial shock," Toronto-Dominion Bank economists say
  • "The main question is how households will respond to the eventual rebalancing of monetary policy, TD economists Craig Alexander and Diana Petramala write in a new report that looks at indebtedness among Canadian households.
  • Canadians will experience a financial shock when interest rates eventually rise, but the vast majority of households should be able to cope so long as interest rates rise only gradually
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate steady at just 1 per cent, citing global uncertainty and the impact of the strong Canadian dollar, but said rates must eventually rise
  • Annual personal credit growth slowed to a year-over-year pace of 6.4 per cent in April, compared to an average 10.9 per cent in a period spanning 2004 to 2008
  • The moderation in credit growth has been evident in all measures of debt
  • The debt-service ratio, the interest households must pay on their debt each month as a share of personal disposable income, climbed to a two-year high of 7.6 per cent in [the first quarter of] 2011, despite still record low interest rates.
Linda Lei

Consumer debt and home equity | Direct Talk with Peter Aceto - 0 views

  • Here are some facts. In this low interest rate environment, Canadians’ debt levels – including credit cards, loans and mortgages – have grown much faster than their incomes. Debt levels are now about one and a half times disposable income, an even higher level than the debt-to-income levels of Americans. Total consumer debt in Canada now exceeds a staggering $1.4 trillion. The Bank of Canada and the Finance Department have expressed concern about personal debt, specifically about what would happen if interest rates were to rise and Canadians discovered they could not afford to be carrying these debt levels.
Linda Lei

Stories tagged "Consumer Debt" | Financial Post - 1 views

  • Despite repeated warnings from Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, Canadians continue to ratchet up personal debt, leaving the country increasingly vulnerable to economic shock.
  • Growth in residential mortgages, the biggest single asset of all the major banks, “is continuing to be more robust,” Bill Downe, chief executive of Bank of Montreal, said in an interview.
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