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Alexei Goudzenko

China, not U.S., key to global oil demand - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

  • But as the U.S. continues to pare back its oil consumption, other economies will seek a bigger share of the pie from a near static world oil supply. With power shortages spreading in China and Japan, as well as India and Pakistan, demand for diesel fuel is soaring in power-starved Asia.
  • With little, if any usable excess capacity in OPEC, world crude demand is already on the verge of outpacing world supply. In the resulting zero sum world, conflicting trends in oil consumption between the world’s two largest oil consumers, the U.S. and China, will not be the exception but the norm.
  • If the Chinese economy is going to continue to increase its oil consumption by 10 per cent a year, another economy will have to cut back its oil consumption by a comparable amount to make room for the increase in Chinese demand. More and more, that place looks like America.
Alexei Goudzenko

A bold national energy plan can benefit the provinces - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

  • Canada would benefit just as much from the creation of a national electricity grid as it did from the development of the railway and the pipeline. As a nation-building effort, developing these grid connections would give provinces options to buy and sell power of all stripes. Unlike crude oil, it is a consumer product that can be used everywhere, and Canadian supplies of electricity are increasingly renewable in form. Such a project would increase the renewable power potential for Alberta and Saskatchewan by linking existing and future hydro development in Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba and British Columbia to these markets. While the distances here are excessive, the challenge is not insurmountable.
  • Many Canadians may not realize this, but most of Canada’s long-distance, high-capacity connections for oil and electricity run north-south, not east-west. In these key industries, we have focused almost exclusively on serving the U.S. This is one of the great strengths of our nation -- the ability of each province to create its own best strategy for developing revenue streams. It’s also a weakness, because lack of access to other provincial markets has effectively siloed our energy strategies along provincial lines, leading to a patchwork of development across the country that does not take advantage of potential synergies across regions.
Alexei Goudzenko

Reimagining Food Systems in the Midst of a Hunger Crisis - IPS ipsnews.net - 0 views

  • "We can and must re- imagine other food systems that take numerous social dimensions into account."
  • These are poverty, caused by trade policies that dump heavily- subsidised produce from developed countries on third world markets, thus rendering local farmers jobless; environmental degradation brought on by industrialised farming, which now accounts for nearly one-third of global green house gas emissions; and an epidemic of malnutrition caused by the colonising effects of mono-crops and a flood of processed food from the global north to the global south.
  • Agro-ecology, which includes systems that produce their own fertiliser using materials and waste from the surrounding environment, is being increasingly viewed as the only viable solution to the hunger crisis. Since prices of fertiliser doubled during the 2008 food crisis, continents like Africa that import 95 percent of their chemical fertilisers could see radically different outcomes in production by adopting agro-ecological techniques.
Kevin Yeo

Can Made in USA survive in a global economy? Should it? - USATODAY.com - 1 views

  • Perry also said that, at $2.155 trillion, total U.S. manufacturing output is 45% higher than China's. Despite the increase in output, however, the number of jobs in the U.S. manufacturing sector is down more than 7 million since the late 1970s.
  • But when asked if large corporations have a responsibility during these tough economic times to buy American to create more American jobs, his answer was clear: No.
  • Some have argued the "Made in USA" label is too exclusive and can actually hurt the economy by discouraging consumers from buying goods that are not completely made within US borders, but which benefit the country by creating jobs or promoting innovation.
Kevin Yeo

How national borders impede global trade - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

  • Two-way trade between the United States and Canada amounted to nearly $750-billion in 2008 before falling to $600-billion in 2009, thanks largely to the decline in energy prices and weakness in the auto sector; in both areas, Canada is the United States’ largest foreign supplier.
  • Thus, Canada’s $100-billion drop in exports to the United States between 2008 and 2009 was three times as large as the decline in Canada’s GDP during that period.
  • The point is not that internal trade flows or barriers to them are unimportant: in large countries, in particular, internal trade is often significantly larger overall than international trade and therefore even relatively small impediments to it can matter a great deal.
Kevin Yeo

AmericanEconomicAlert.org Blog Network - 0 views

  • The rise in the oil deficit did indeed greatly outpace the rise in the overall deficit for March – 22.78 percent versus 6.03 percent.  But the increase in the deficit for high-tech products also surged – by 17.00 percent.  And the manufacturing deficit grew by 6.24 percent.
  • In March alone, U.S. exports of high tech products jumped by 20.26 percent (from $21.01 billion to $25.27 billion), while manufactures exports overall rose even faster – by 21.57 percent (from $71.56 billion to $86.99 billion).  
  • But deficits in these sectors kept increasing because their much larger import levels rose robustly, too.  Meanwhile, for the first quarter of this year, the overall trade deficit is running  23.46 percent ahead of last year’s comparable total – which in turn was up 25.91 percent from the first quarter 2009 number.
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  • Bottom line: Despite genuinely booming imports, trade flows still kept dragging down America’s growth and employment performance, and still kept boosting the country’s debt burden.  Do these trends really deserve the label “recovery”?
Chris Li

U.S. will be Canada's top export market in 2040 - The Globe and Mail - 1 views

  • ed. The United States accounted for 75 per cent of total exports last year, down from 85
  • The United States accounted for 75 per cent of total exports last year, down from 85 per cent in the mid-1990s.
  • United States will still be our dominant merchandise export destination in 2040
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  • “Despite the rapid growth in emerging economies, the United States remains a large and wealthy market that is right next door to Canada, whereas emerging markets are a significant distance away,”
  • the U.S. is also Canada’s leading source of foreign direct investment, or FDI. In 2010, the stock of U.S. investment here was $306-billion.
John wang

Stop the ridicule: Adrian Dix right on the money - 0 views

  • 1929, with the gap between the wealthy and the rest of us widening.
  • bottom 60 per cent
  • 11 per cent drop in their average after-tax incomes
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  • richest 10 percent
  • richest 10 per cent of B.C. families now earn more than the bottom 50 per cent combined
  • 5,065
  • 23,665
  • 18 per cent increase
  • mental illness and drug addiction more common
Carolyne Wang

Is income inequality just business as usual? - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

    • Carolyne Wang
       
      The visuals in this link show the distribution of wealth among the highest income earners in Canada.
  • international statistics show that poverty rates are lowest where income inequality is lowest too. That can be because of culture -- the wage spectrum is compressed, as in Japan, where it is unseemly to get too far ahead of others in pay -- or through active redistribution programs, where taxes and the services they buy redistribute incomes and opportunities to try to level the playing field a bit more.
  • For most of the 20th century inequality in Canada - and in virtually all developed nations, actually - had been declining. By the 1980s that long term trend reversed. First because of recessions (where the bottom end of the spectrum lost ground) then because of rowth (when the top part of the income spectrum zoomed ahead). So for the past generation inequality has grown in Canada, in good times and bad.
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  • There are two reasons for hope. One is, oddly, the result of an aging population and the consequent shrinking pool of workers, which may push up wages for workers producing basic goods and services, not just those at the top of the skill spectrum. The other is a culture shift, where a growing number of boomers understand what is at play and start working with others to come up with ways to ensure there will be a resilient middle class for the next generation.
  • When the cost of something goes up, we tend to consume less of it. So, since living wages are higher than minimum wages, employers are likely to hire fewer workers. A living wage campaign is part of the effort to raise the visibility of a sorry development in Canada. The saying that "the best social policy is a job" is in many ways true; but a new reality has developed over the past decade or so - that you can't necessarily escape poverty by working. Working full-time full-year at a minimum wage job, as many adults do, condems you to poverty.
  • Professor Richard Wilkinson just finished a tour of Canada, discussing his research findings from the past 30 years or so. A social epidemiologist, he has gathered international data showing the very tight correlation between life expectancy and income inequality, between literacy and income inequality, between rates of incarceration and income inequality, etc. etc. Over and over again he shows a range of issues that have a strong social gradient which reveal that almost everybody is better off in a society with greater income equality, including the rich. You can see his presentation in Vancouver at this link. http://i.sfu.ca/TmyYCh
  • The Mincome experiment in Manitoba in the mid 1970s, the MacDonald Commission i n the mid 1980s, and the House Report from Newfoundland and Labrador in the early 1990s all had proposals for providing a basic income. Only Manitoba tried it, as a pilot project, for a few years. The problem with the guaranteed income idea is at what rate you set it, and at what rate you tax it back. It could remove the stigma of income support programs, but it could just as easily be a costly experiment that, essentially, guarantees poverty. Also, as Dr. Wilkinson has suggested, at some point on the GDP per capita curve, income inequality is no longer about material deprivation, but rather one of psycho-social responses. We are, after all, pack animals.
  • We can redress some of the vagaries of the market through public policies, but the root cause of growing inequality is how different peoples' work is valued. IN a slow growth environment, which seems to be the foreseeable future for Canada, it will become harder and harder for those at the top of corporate structures to take the types of increases they have been commanding in the marketplace and expect unionized workers to be happy about losing their pension, benefits and wage increases, and expect low-end workers to essentially stay put or lose more ground. Two things can happen - those at the top start moderating their increases; or those in the middle and the bottom start seeing solid increases, particularly as the wave of retirements starts accelerating. The problem with rising incomes, generally, is that usually goes along with rising prices; and we're about to host the largest cohort of retirees we've ever had in history, a group that lives on fixed and low incomes, to whom rising prices are toxic. So how will the highest priced workers get away witih demanding more in that context I wonder?
  • Historically, increasing economic growth first deliver rising inequality, then lowering inequality (Simon Kuznets' famous work back in the 1950s). That's still true of developing nations - economic growth is first badly distributed, then leads to demands for greater equality.
  • We can raise our kids more equitably - but it will take more taxes. We can have less of a winner take all society - but it will require some people at the top to trim their expectations. We can beat this in small ways, but we also need leaders to express the way forward. In the US they have Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and politicians leading the way. We're waiting for more people like Ed Clarke, the CEO of TD Bank, to weigh in on how to make Canada fairer (his suggestion is higher taxes on the rich).
Carolyne Wang

The rich really are getting richer - The Globe and Mail - 2 views

  • The top 0.01 per cent of Canadian income earners, the 2,400 people who earn at least $1.85-million, aren’t just basking in investment income and business profits. Nearly 75 per cent of their income comes from wages, just like the average Canadian, according to a new study from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. The top 1 per cent, the 246,000 Canadians who earn more than $169,000, receive about 67 per cent of their income in wages.
  • That’s a change from the 1940s, when the rich took 45 per cent of their income from wages, 25 per cent from business profits and the rest from investments, dividends and interest.
  • , the income share of the richest 1 per cent fell from 14 per cent to 7.7 per cent. That trend was reversed over the past 30 years, as the top 1 per cent regained its 14-per-cent share of Canadian income. Over that time, the richest 0.1 per cent almost tripled their income share and the richest 0.01 per cent increased their share fivefold.
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  • Ms. Yalnizyan said the major trend she identifies is that the wealthiest Canadians are increasing their share of income at a historic pace. Looking back over the past 90 years, income is now concentrated in a way that hasn’t been seen since the 1920s, she said. In the past decade, almost a third of income growth has gone to the richest 1 per cent, she added.
  • The top 0.01 per cent of Canadian income earners, the 2,400 people who earn at least $1.85-million, aren’t just basking in investment income and business profits. Nearly 75 per cent of their income comes from wages, just like the average Canadian, according to a new study from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. The top 1 per cent, the 246,000 Canadians who earn more than $169,000, receive about 67 per cent of their income in wages.
    • Carolyne Wang
       
      See the link for visuals of income distribution in Canada.
  • That’s a change from the 1940s, when the rich took 45 per cent of their income from wages, 25 per cent from business profits and the rest from investments, dividends and interest.
  • Looking back over the past 90 years, income is now concentrated in a way that hasn’t been seen since the 1920s, she said. In the past decade, almost a third of income growth has gone to the richest 1 per cent, she added.
  • The big picture shows that after the Second World War, Canadian society distributed income in an increasingly level fashion. From 1946 to 1977, she writes, the income share of the richest 1 per cent fell from 14 per cent to 7.7 per cent. That trend was reversed over the past 30 years, as the top 1 per cent regained its 14-per-cent share of Canadian income. Over that time, the richest 0.1 per cent almost tripled their income share and the richest 0.01 per cent increased their share fivefold.
  • Median incomes, meanwhile, have been stagnant
  • “You’ve always had these people who’ve got their fingers on something the rest of us don’t. But why are they suddenly worth many multiples of what they were back then?” Ms. Yalnizyan said.
  • The answer, she said, is not economics. It’s in our culture.
  • Economist Michael Veall, who teaches at McMaster University, said a few theories try to explain the income shift by focusing on changes in the labour market at the high end, particularly for managers. One view is that corporate governors have allowed CEO salaries to jump because they were climbing elsewhere. Another is that CEOs, known for being superb communicators, are more effective, and thus more valuable, in the digital age because e-mail and the mass media facilitate contact with employees and the public, Prof. Veall said.
Benjamin Gray

Energized by growth, China enters U.S. talks with confidence - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

  • At the same time, America’s biggest foreign creditor wants assurances that its $1.2-trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings are safe despite uncertainty in Washington over how much money the U.S. can borrow to pay its bills. If Congress fails to increase that borrowing limit before August, that would likely send interest rates soaring and reduce the value of those Chinese investments
  • China’s expanding economic might will give it greater leverage now.
Linda Lei

A warning for Canadian consumers, household debt could spark 'made in Canada' recession... - 1 views

  • “One scenario is that interest rates rise, house prices drop, and more people begin defaulting on their credit card debt and mortgage obligations. An equally worrying – and perhaps more likely scenario – is that interest rates go up a little, and more of people’s disposable income goes to repaying their debt, leading to a significant reduction in consumer spending. Since personal spending on consumer goods and services accounts for 58 per cent of the Canadian gross domestic product, this decrease would provoke a ‘made in Canada’ recession.”
  • Total household debt in Canada now tops $1.5-trillion, or three times the national debt, MIT said in a statement outlining the paper by Mr. Dunfield and his colleagues in the Action Canada fellowship. That means that while Mr. Flaherty is being fiscally responsible, many of us may not be following suit.
  • “Canada has also avoided the wide regional performance differences seen in the U.S., where states such as Nevada, California and Florida suffered significantly larger declines than the nation overall,” Mr. Goldin added. “In Canada, house prices in Calgary and Vancouver fell further than those across the nation, but the variance was relatively minor by comparison
Heshani Makalande

Canadian debt load: $26,000 - excluding mortgages - Moneyville.ca - 0 views

  • Already at record levels, Canadians now owe just under $26,000 on average on their lines of credit, credit cards and auto loans, according to credit rating agency, TransUnion.
  • That’s an increase of 4.5 per cent, or another $1,000, over the same period last year.
  • The fear is that higher rates could push more consumers beyond their ability to repay their loans
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  • Debt growth in Canada is slowing from the double-digit pace seen before the recession
  • And total borrowing, including mortgages, typically the biggest household loan, is slowing, major Canadian banks said recently in their quarterly reports.
  • The Bank of Canada’s trend-setting overnight lending rate is just 1 per cent. But with inflation running at 3.3 per cent, above the central bank’s ideal range, Carney is under pressure to start raising lending rates to dampen demand.
  • Total debt per consumer increased to $25,597 in the first three months of this year,
  • Among types of loans, TransUnion said credit card debt, usually the most expensive to carry, barely budged from a year ago, falling $25 to an average of $3,539.
  • In a sign some borrowers may already be struggling, the national credit card delinquency rate rose 11 per cent. The rate measures the ratio of consumers who take 90 days or more to pay their bill.
  • The average line of credit, the most popular loans for their low cost and high flexibility, rose 5.9 per cent to $33,762 compared to last year. However, total line of credit debt declined for the first time in five quarters.
  • One noticeable shift was the decreased use of lines of credit, Higgins said. The category is the largest among consumer loans, making up 41 per cent of the total, and even more in Ontario, at 57 per cent
  • The study found debt loads rose in all provinces, led by Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador. British Columbians had the highest load at $36,649.
  • Lines of credit are the most popular form of consumer debt, excluding mortgages, accounting for more than 41 per cent of outstanding debt at the end of the first quarter. Debt on lines of credit stood at an average $33,981, up 5.9 per cent from $31,867 in the first quarter of 2010.
Noah Schafer

Jobless rate, global uncertainty to test Tories' economic strategy - thestar.com - 0 views

  • The new Conservative government’s business-friendly economic strategy will be tested by uncertain global conditions and a stubbornly high jobless rate in Canada. One of the first items on Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s agenda when Parliament re
  • The new Conservative government’s business-friendly economic strategy will be tested by uncertain global conditions and a stubbornly high jobless rate in Canada.
  • n February, Canada’s output sank by 0.2 per cent, the worst monthly performance since May 2009.
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  • One of the first items on Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s agenda when Parliament returns will be reintroduction of a $278 billion budget that includes a sprinkling of social and economic spending and a plan to slay the budget deficit in several years. And the government will continue with a $6 billion corporate income tax cut.
  • “The risks still lie outside the Canadian border, which as we’re well aware can have a spillover effect on Canada,” said Royal Bank chief economist Craig Wright.
  • “We’re seeing continued uncertainty and concerns still with respect to the Eurozone and where it’s headed,” he said. Uncertainty on economic growth is also being fanned by volatile energy markets and the questionable U.S. business rebound, Wright said.
  • Prospects for Canada are also complicated by expectations that spending by debt-burdened consumers could slow in 2011 and by the shut-off of the Conservatives’ two-year, $47 billion emergency stimulus program.
  • With government spending slowing, the Conservatives have staked a great deal on their view that the business community will pick up the slack and stimulate the economy with expansion-minded investments.
  • Besides phasing in corporate income tax cuts worth $14 billion by 2012, the Conservatives in recent years have provided a wide range of investment incentives for business, including easing taxes on small business and manufacturers. In all, tax cuts for business by the Conservatives total an estimated $60 billion by 2013.
  • both Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney have pointedly talked about the urgent need for more spending on machinery and equipment by companies.
  • But many are not convinced, with some Canadians saying the government would be smarter to tie tax incentives directly to company investments to ensure that corporations don’t just pocket the extra profits.
  • Speaking of corporate tax cuts, Canadian Association of Social Workers spokesperson Fred Phelps said it would be one thing “if corporations turned around and invested those funds into the economy.” But he said that hasn’t been happening in recent years. “What really has driven us out of the recession,” he said, “is spending by households and government, not business.”
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