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Aaron Palm

David Ranson: The Revenue Limits of Tax and Spend - WSJ.com - 0 views

  • President Obama's fiscal 2011 budget, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates a deficit that starts at 10.3% of GDP in 2010. It is projected to narrow as the economy recovers but will still be 5.6% in 2020. As a result the net national debt (debt held by the public) will more than double to 90% by 2020 from 40% in 2008.
  • They do not include deficit spending resulting from the new health-insurance legislation. The revenue numbers rely on increased tax rates beginning next year resulting from the scheduled expiration of the Bush tax cuts. And, as usual, they ignore the unfunded liabilities of social insurance programs,
  • "Hauser's Law," as I call this formula, reveals a kind of capacity ceiling for federal tax receipts at about 19% of GDP.
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    We can never collect more than 20% tax rate
Jason Welker

Economic View - A Dose of Skepticism on Government Spending - NYTimes.com - 5 views

  • the centerpiece is likely to be a huge increase in government spending
  • John Maynard Keynes
  • A main focus was how to avoid, or at least mitigate, the recurring slumps in economic activity.
  • ...17 more annotations...
  • Economic downturns, Mr. Keynes and Mr. Samuelson taught us, occur when the aggregate demand for goods and services is insufficient.
  • Higher consumer spending expands aggregate demand further, raising the G.D.P. yet again. And so on. This positive feedback loop is called the multiplier effect.
  • these Keynesian prescriptions make avoiding depressions seem too easy.
  • each dollar of government spending can increase the nation’s gross domestic product by more than a dollar
  • The solution, they said, was for the government to provide demand when the private sector would not.
  • less than a third of the increase takes the form of private consumption and investment.
  • Professor Ramey estimates that each dollar of government spending increases the G.D.P. by only 1.4 dollars.
  • In practice, however, the multiplier for government spending is not very large
  • If you hire your neighbor for $100 to dig a hole in your backyard and then fill it up, and he hires you to do the same in his yard, the government statisticians report that things are improving.
  • it is unlikely that, having wasted all that time digging and filling, either of you is better off.
  • inefficient spending
  • bridges to nowhere,
  • increase in economic well-being.
  • a rigorous cost-benefit analysis of each government project.
  • To this day, we have yet to come to grips with how to pay for all that the government created during that era
  • a temporary crisis as a pretense for engineering a permanent increase in the size and scope of the government. Believers in limited government have reason to be wary.
  • tax cuts will be a larger piece of the Obama recovery plan than was previously expected.
Jason Welker

LRB · John Gray · We simply do not know! - 0 views

  • The last two years, in which capitalism has suffered one of its periodic shocks, have given John Maynard Keynes a new lease of life. Events have demonstrated the limits of the theory that economies can be relied on to be stable if they are lightly regulated and otherwise left to themselves. There is now much talk of the paradox of thrift, whereby the rational choices of individuals can prove collectively ruinous, and of the need for government to counteract the inherently anarchic tendencies of markets. Keynes has been revived because he understood that markets are very often irrational. Unfortunately, few of those who urge that we go back to him seem to have understood why he believed this.
  • Apart from a brief postscript to one of the chapters and a few remarks in the preface, George Akerlof and Robert Shiller’s Animal Spirits was written before the current crisis. Yet, based on research undertaken over many years, it can be read as prefiguring the current disillusionment with economics. The trouble with prevailing theories, in Akerlof and Shiller’s view, is that they assume human beings are more rational than they actually are. ‘This book, which draws on an emerging field called behavioural economics, describes how the economy really works,’ they claim. ‘It accounts for how it works when people really are human, that is, possessed of all-too-human animal spirits.’
    • Jason Welker
       
      I took my students to hear George Akerlof speak in Zurich recently. His presentation of "Animal Spirits" was excellent and shed considerable light on the Macroeconomics we teach in AP and IB Economics classes.
  • ‘Just as Adam Smith’s invisible hand is the keynote of classical economics,’ they write, ‘Keynes’s animal spirits are the keynote to a different view of the economy – a view that explains the underlying instabilities of capitalism.’ Here they are endorsing the caricature of Smith propagated by neoliberal ideologues anxious to confer a distinguished patrimony on an illegitimate intellectual offspring.
    • Jason Welker
       
      Modern day free market advocates have hijacked Adam Smith's "invisible hand"...
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  • Shackle took Keynes’s argument a step further, and showed that no economic policy can ensure economic stability indefinitely. ‘Keynesian’ policies are no exception to this rule. Deficit financing and monetary expansion may have worked well in the conditions that existed after the Second World War. It is not clear that they will be so effective today, when globalisation has brought a freedom of capital movements that did not exist then.
    • Jason Welker
       
      Is old fashioned Keynesian fiscal stimulus enough to solve today's economic challenges?
  • Economics and politics are not separate branches of human activity, and economic life cannot be studied independently of social divisions and political conflicts among populations, along with their cultures and religions.
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    AP Macro and IB teachers should read this review of George Akerlof and Robert Schiller's book "Animal Spirits". There are some great points in this piece that can be brought into the AP or IB classroom with regards to the assumption of rational behavior and more importantly the Keynesian/Classical debate on Macroeconomic policy issues.
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