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wmulnea

BBC News - Falling oil prices: Who are the winners and losers? - 0 views

www.bbc.com/...business-29643612

shared by wmulnea on 13 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • The reasons for this change are twofold - weak demand in many countries due to insipid economic growth, coupled with surging US production. Added to this is the fact that the oil cartel Opec is determined not to cut production as a way to prop up prices.
  • Russia loses about $2bn in revenues for every dollar fall in the oil price,
  • Russia has confirmed it will not cut production to shore up oil prices.
  • ...12 more annotations...
  • Venezuela is one of the world's largest oil exporters, but thanks to economic mismanagement it was already finding it difficult to pay its way even before the oil price started falling.
  • Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter and Opec's most influential member, could support global oil prices by cutting back its own production, but there is little sign it wants to do this.
  • There could be two reasons - to try to instil some discipline among fellow Opec oil producers, and perhaps to put the US's burgeoning shale oil and gas industry under pressure.
  • Saudi Arabia needs oil prices to be around $85 in the longer term, it has deep pockets with a reserve fund of some $700bn - so can withstand lower prices for some time.
  • were to force some higher cost producers
  • In the 1980s the country did cut production significantly in a bid to boost prices, but it had little effect and it also badly affected the Saudi economy.
  • Saudi Arabia, Gulf producers such as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have also amassed considerable foreign currency reserves, which means that they could run deficits for several years if necessary.
  • Islamic State, capturing oil wells. It is estimated it is making about $3m a day through black market sales - and undercutting market prices by selling at a significant discount - around $30-60 a barrel.
  • "The growth of oil production in North America, particularly in the US, has been staggering," says Columbia University's Jason Bordoff.
  • It has been this growth in US energy production, where gas and oil is extracted from shale formations using hydraulic fracturing or fracking, that has been one of the main drivers of lower oil prices.
  • "Shale has essentially severed the linkage between geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, and oil price and equities," says Seth Kleinman, head of energy strategy at Citi.
  • With Europe's flagging economies characterised by low inflation and weak growth, any benefits of lower prices would be welcomed by beleaguered governments. A 10% fall in oil prices should lead to a 0.1% increase in economic output, say some. In general consumers benefit through lower energy prices, but eventually low oil prices do erode the conditions that brought them about.
mjumaia

As Oil Prices Fall, Who Wins And Who Loses? - 0 views

www.npr.org/...es-fall-who-wins-and-who-loses

OPEC Saudi economy oil Oil Prices Fall GCC Iran

shared by mjumaia on 28 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • mjumaia on 28 Apr 15
     
    This is one likely reason the Saudis have been willing to pump oil at high levels even though that's contributing to low prices. The Saudis publicly cite a business motive, saying they want to maintain their current share of the oil market. But the Saudis are also well aware that low prices mean less money for archrival Iran.
aavenda2

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi Arabia falls on oil price worries after Iran nuclear deal - Yahoo ... - 0 views

news.yahoo.com/worries-085958305--sector.html

Saudi arabia oil stock falls

shared by aavenda2 on 10 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • aavenda2 on 10 Apr 15
     
    Saudi stock index fell 0.9 percent after Iran's nuclear deal with world powers fuelled concern about a further decline in oil prices
allieggg

What Happened to the Humanitarians Who Wanted to Save Libyans With Bombs and Drones? - ... - 0 views

firstlook.org/...nted-save-libyans-bombs-drones

humanitarian libya civil war politics US Intervention NATO revolution

shared by allieggg on 23 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • “Libya is a reminder that sometimes it is possible to use military tools to advance humanitarian causes.”
  • intervention was a matter of upholding “universal values,” which itself advanced America’s strategic goals. In justifying the war to Americans (more than a week after it started), President Obama decreed: “Some nations may be able to turn a blind eye to atrocities in other countries. The United States of America is different.”
  • But “turning a blind eye” to the ongoing – and now far worse – atrocities in Libya is exactly what the U.S., its war allies, and most of the humanitarian war advocates are now doing.
  • ...6 more annotations...
  • “this was a rare military intervention for humanitarian reasons, and it has succeeded” and that “on rare occasions military force can advance human rights. Libya has so far been a model of such an intervention.”
  • But the most compelling reason to oppose such wars is that – even if it all could work perfectly in an ideal world and as tempting as it is to believe – humanitarianism is not what motivates the U.S. or most other governments to deploy its military in other nations.
  • As the country spun into chaos, violence, militia rule and anarchy as a direct result of the NATO intervention, they exhibited no interest whatsoever in doing anything to arrest or reverse that collapse. What happened to their deeply felt humanitarianism? Where did it go?
  • What’s most notable here isn’t how everything in Libya has gone so terribly and tragically wrong. That was painfully predictable: anyone paying even casual attention now knows that killing the Bad Dictator of the Moment (usually one the U.S. spent years supporting) achieves nothing good for the people of that country unless it’s backed by years of sustained support for rebuilding its civil institutions.
  • If there were any authenticity to the claimed humanitarianism, wouldn’t there be movements to spend large amounts of money not just to bomb Libya but also to stabilize and rebuild it? Wouldn’t there be just as much horror over the plight of Libyans now: when the needed solution is large-scale economic aid and assistance programs rather than drone deployments, blowing up buildings, and playful, sociopathic chuckling over how we came, conquered, and made The Villain die?
  • The way most war advocates instantly forgot Libya existed once that fun part was over is the strongest argument imaginable about what really motivates these actions. In the victory parade he threw for himself, Kristof said the question of “humanitarian intervention” will “arise again” and “the next time it does, let’s remember a lesson of Libya.”
  • allieggg on 23 Nov 14
     
    This article basically lays out the faults in US intervention in Libya during the fall of Gaddafi and condemns the US officials for their lack of hindsight in their agenda. The US claimed that they could not "turn a blind eye" to atrocities and human right violations in other countries and to intervene in Libya was a matter of upholding "universal values." After the successful ousting of Gaddafi, the US hypocritically turned their back on the country as a whole, leaving them to pick up the pieces and re-build themselves in the midst of socio-political and economic chaos. The US claims that military intervention is sometimes necessary to address human right violations, but in the case of Libya more violations have occurred as a result of a fallen regime rather than because of its reign. The author basically says that the US should have predicted that short-term intervention strategies achieves nothing without years of sustained support for rebuilding the civil institutions. 
aavenda2

The most important thing to understand about the coming oil production cutbacks - 1 views

www.resourceinsights.blogspot.com/...rtant-thing-to-understand.html

Oil Saudi Arabia United States Canada

shared by aavenda2 on 24 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • aavenda2 on 24 Feb 15
     
    The United States and Canada are cutting back on oil production beginning 2015. The high cost of production in the two countries does now allow it to compete with Saudi Arabia oil and other countries with lower costs as market prices begin to fall
wmulnea

Oil and Terror: ISIS and Middle East Economies - 0 views

www.investopedia.com/...-and-middle-east-economies.asp

shared by wmulnea on 02 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • ISIS's economic cost is significant not just for Iraq but also other Middle Eastern countries.
  • Iraq has the fifth largest oil reserves in the world and third highest in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia and Iran.
  • Part of ISIS's rise in Iraq can be attributed to sectarian politics.
  • ...15 more annotations...
  • part of their dissatisfaction came from the distribution of oil revenues. 
  • The mismanagement of oil revenues is also manifest in Iraq's poor infrastructure
  • Though currently the Iraqi government has reserves and surplus funds, mounting expenditures and falling oil prices has economists to project that Iraq will run a deficit next year.
  • it is running a self-sustaining economy, making it the world's richest terror group.
  • Thankfully, 6 of 8 Iraq’s major oil fields lie in the Shia South, which is unlikely to come under ISIS control.
  • It sells crude at a steep discount, at a rate of USD $30 per barrel
  • Turkey runs a huge trade surplus with Iraq, which is likely to slow down dramatically due to lower demand from Iraq.
  • Jordan and Lebanon, which have both absorbed a large number of refugees.
  • Iran’s position seems to be the trickiest of all in that its interests align with those of the US in its fight against ISIS
  • Falling oil prices have definitely curtailed Iran’s ability to intervene without serious consequences for its economy. Iran needs oil prices well above USD $100 for it to balance its budget,
  • Any cooperation between Iran and the US over ISIS could lead to a gradual withdrawal of sanctions, which would allow Iran to sell its oil on the open market and generate revenue. The flip side is that Iran’s oil would surely depress oil prices further.
  • Saudi's allegiances have become muddled.
  • it finds its interests are aligned with those of Iran, a traditional foe, both of which are against ISIS.
  • Russia needs oil prices near USD $100 to balance its budget and Iran needs high oil prices to support its nuclear program.
  • Regionally, ISIS will disrupt and degrade the economy of several states, and that in turn may lead to further political chaos -- which is precisely ISIS's goal.
allieggg

Proxy War Feared in Libya as UN Envoy Warns Against Foreign Intervention | VICE News - 0 views

news.vice.com/...s-against-foreign-intervention

libya militias armed groups war middle east proxy power vacuum

shared by allieggg on 13 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • US officials accused the United Arab Emirates and Egypt of secretly conducting air strikes on Islamist militias who have seized control of Tripoli airport.
  • US officials reportedly said they were not consulted over the strikes, which threaten to turn the already disintegrating country into a battleground for a regional proxy war.
  • Islamist groups — from Misrata and other cities wrested Tripoli's airport from the rival Zintan militia, loosely allied with the rogue General Khalifa Hifter, that controlled it since 2011.
  • ...11 more annotations...
  • The Misrata alliance — operating under the banner Libya Dawn — is now said to be in de facto control of the entire capital after their opponents abandoned their positions.
    • allieggg
      allieggg on 13 Nov 14
       
      Tripoli-- occupied by Misrata and other islamic groups Tobruk-- new house of reps. / interim gov. / recognized by the UN
  • The old General National Congress reconvened in Tripoli on Monday following calls from the Misrata alliance and voted to disband Libya's interim government, while the new House of Representatives, based in Tobruk, has branded those in control of the capital "terrorist groups and outlaws".
  • analysts fear Libya could become an arena for a battle between regional rivals, as countries such as the UAE and Egypt attempt to crush the threat from Islamist fighters backed by Qatar.
  • US officials told the New York Times that the UAE had provided the military aircraft and crews for two sets of air strikes
  • conducted by the two US allies without the knowledge of the US.
  • "outside interference" in Libya, which they said "exacerbates current divisions and undermines Libya's democratic transition."
  • power vacuum that allowed rival militias to thrive
  • after the previous Islamist-dominated parliament refused to recognize the legitimacy of the new assembly elected
  • "It's clear there is a proxy war in Libya between Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Algeria on one side and Qatar and Turkey on the other side,"
  • the country needs "real engagement from the international community" to defeat the Islamist militias.
  • allieggg on 13 Nov 14
     
    After the fall of Gaddafi a power vacuum allowed rival militias to thrive. Now, Libya has become a proxy war for other Arab nations. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, and Algeria on one side and Qatar and Turkey on the other. 
alarsso

Syria after Assad: Heading toward a Hard Fall? - The Washington Institute for Near East... - 0 views

www.washingtoninstitute.org/...sad-heading-toward-a-hard-fall

syria post-assad heading institute outcome

shared by alarsso on 16 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • To a certain extent, the nature of the transition will be i
  • nfluenced by how the Assad regime leaves the scene.
  • forces retain their cohesion
  • ...23 more annotations...
  • control
  • whether the opposition moves to purge regime employees
  • offices are trashed and looted
  • violent power struggle
  • unitary state with a strong central government is unlikely to emerge from the civil war.
  • great challenges exerting control over local leaders who fought the regime
  • ederation of warlords (probably former military and security chiefs) ruling over fiefdoms
  • unitary entity
  • Syrian army
  • opposition will have more time to set up rudimentary institutions
  • provide humanitarian aid for Syrian refugees
  • likely be accompanied by a new round of massacres and ethnic cleansing
  • Sunni extremist groups.
  • new opportunities for external actors, especially Iran and Hizballah, both of which would seek allies among the former regime's Alawite security elite
  • Iran's
  • remain a major player in the Levant
  • hostile to Iran and more closely aligned with Turkey, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia.
  • revolutionary Sunni government in Syria
  • Iran and Hizballah
  • support to former regime
  • Washington should continue with preparations to contain spillover from the conflict
  • enabling it to collect tariffs on imports
  • Washington will need to know as much as it can about the key players,
tdford333

Civilians struggle to cope as Yemen conflict escalates - Al Jazeera English - 0 views

www.aljazeera.com/...civilians-150402145713399.html

yemen poverty crisis

shared by tdford333 on 03 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • Civilians struggle to cope as Yemen conflict escalates
  • concern over civilian casualties and fears that country will plunge deeper into poverty.
  • lockdown of the capital Sanaa, with residents fleeing for safety and many businesses shutting down.
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • Shopkeeper Rassam Ali told Al Jazeera that every day is a battle for survival for residents as the war rages on.
  • tdford333 on 03 Apr 15
     
    The battle in Yemen is causing many civilians to flee, and business to close down. The instability is raising fears that Yemen could be falling deeper into poverty.
alarsso

The Choices for Syria's Christians - 0 views

www.gatestoneinstitute.org/...syria-christians

christians syria civil war religion middle east

shared by alarsso on 20 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • alarsso on 20 Apr 15
     
    This article explores possible outcomes for Syrian Christians and the best situation for them if the regime falls, or if civil war continues
ccfuentez

Refworld | 2015 Trafficking in Persons Report - Algeria - 0 views

www.refworld.org/...55b73c1d15.html

Algeria human-trafficking Recommendation Illegal Immigrant Prosecution

shared by ccfuentez on 26 Jan 16 - No Cached
  • ccfuentez on 26 Jan 16
     
    Recommendation for Algeria to handle the human trafficking issue include punishing those convicted with imprisonment and help those who fall victim to forced labor or prostitution instead of imprisoning the forced laborers. Many NGOs do not report trafficking crimes to the police for fear of arrest and deportation.
ccfuentez

Modern-day slavery ensnares millions worldwide - World - CBC News - 0 views

www.cbc.ca/...s-millions-worldwide-1.1204720

human-trafficking Syria abused International Labour Organization

shared by ccfuentez on 03 Feb 16 - No Cached
  • Millions of men, women and children around the world were victims of modern slavery last year, according to a new U.S. report of human trafficking.
  • he dark underbelly of human trafficking, an umbrella term that includes sexual exploitation, child prostitution, forced labour and debt bondage
  • First-hand accounts from victims highlighted the physical and psychological toll of modern slavery.
  • ccfuentez on 03 Feb 16
     
    Millions of women, children, and men fall victim to modern day slavery especially in the Middle East. Syria was listed as the worst offender in 2012. Victims of human trafficking suffer physical, mental, and emotional abuse while they are taken prisoner. 
ysenia

U.S. Had Cyberattack Plan if Iran Nuclear Dispute Led to Conflict - The New York Times - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...clear-negotiations-failed.html

Nitro Zeus cyberattack Iran

shared by ysenia on 24 Feb 16 - Cached
  • ysenia on 24 Feb 16
     
    Cyberattack plan against Iran if the nuclear deal fell through has in been the works since the Bush Administration. Implemented into Obama Administration in 2009, showcased how concered U.S. was about deal falling through.
mcooka

Iraq divisions undermine battle against IS - BBC News - 0 views

www.bbc.com/...world-middle-east-35492067

iraq war crossfire politics suni

shared by mcooka on 24 Feb 16 - No Cached
  • More than in any other country, Iraq's future is intimately bound up with the fate of self-styled Islamic State (IS).
  • Territory that was lost in a day or two is taking many months to claw painfully back.
  • But even if initially successful, such an ambitious project, indeed, any further moves to oust IS, could go badly wrong if the foundations are not sound
  • ...11 more annotations...
  • The IS fighters were able to lodge so easily in the Sunni Arab heartlands because the people there had been largely alienated by the sectarian policies and practices of the Shia Arab-dominated Baghdad government under Nouri al-Maliki, who was finally prised out of the prime minister's office in August 2014.
  • gislation to empower the Sunnis by devolving security and financial responsibilities to the provinces has not happened.
  • Nor have measures to reverse the persecution of former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party, or the random arrests, detentions, and to assuage other Sunni grievances.
  • he US, who have about 3,500 military personnel training and advising Iraqi government forces on the ground, also seems to be aware that military muscle is not enough.
  • If that process continues and the militants are defeated, the way Iraq fits together - if it does - will be decided by who pushes them out, and how the resulting vacuum is filled.
  • osul is an almost wholly Sunni city with a population of about two million.
  • Some residents may still see IS - about 85% of whose fighters in Iraq are believed to be Iraqi - as their protectors against an Iranian-backed, Shia-dominated Baghdad government.
  • When the Iraqi army collapsed like a house of cards in the face of the IS eruption in June 2014, it was a motley array of hastily-assembled Shia irregulars, loosely banded into the Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation) that prevented the militants reaching Baghda
  • Ramadi gave a boost to the embattled Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi.He has scant support even from his own Shia Daawa party, and is seen across the board by Sunni, Shia and Kurdish politicians as weak, hesitant, lacking in leadership and unable to stand up to the militias.But there was a down-side to the Ramadi victory too: heavy destruction, and the displacement of the entire population.
  • Nor can the formula that finally and slowly worked in Ramadi simply be applied at Mosul. It took government forces with coalition backing seven months to regain Ramadi. Mosul is 10 times bigger.
  • He omitted to mention coalition air support, which would also clearly be crucial to the campaign.Some Iraqi analysts believe outside ground forces would also be needed. US military leaders, while reticent, clearly want to up the pace and have not ruled out more boots on the ground. In the absence of serious moves towards national reconciliation, one senior government figure also saw a campaign to retake Mosul as a vital way of forging national unity.
  • mcooka on 24 Feb 16
     
    This article is about the Iraq divisions which undermine the Iraqi purpose of war. This is a result of an unstable foundation to build plans off of. They are trying to find foundation because they do not want to fall back into an IS state five years down the line. 
ccfuentez

68% of human trafficking victims in Middle East, Africa: UNODC | Cairo Post - 0 views

thecairopost.youm7.com/...ms-in-middle-east-africa-unodc

human-trafficking criminal networks Middle East victims forced labor

shared by ccfuentez on 17 Feb 16 - No Cached
  • The Middle East and Africa region hosted the highest percentage of victims of human trafficking with 68 percent
  • Human trafficking is the act of trading humans, within one country or trans-nationally, by means of kidnapping, use of force, deception or other forms of coercion for different purposes including; sexual slavery, forced labor, extraction of human organs and forced marriage.
  • ccfuentez on 17 Feb 16
     
    The amount of human trafficking victims in the Middle East is 68%. Of the amount of people who are victims, one in four of them is a child. A reason for people falling victim to human trafficking is extreme poverty, entrenched inequality, and a lack of education and opportunity.
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