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fcastro2

Are China and Russia Moving toward a Formal Alliance? | The Diplomat - 0 views

thediplomat.com/...oving-toward-a-formal-alliance

china russia alliance politics

shared by fcastro2 on 04 Feb 15 - No Cached
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 04 Feb 15
       
      Why is this relationship forming now? Ukraine Crisis, they want a multipolar world, China/Japan dispute, & Russia and the NATO expansions. 
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 04 Feb 15
       
      Advocates for China-Russian alliance. Shared strategic interests and possible length of this alliance, U.S. and its Allies threat to Russia leaves in no choice but to side with China, but may lead to another cold war.
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 04 Feb 15
       
      Opponents of China-Russian Alliance. China could be dragged to war by Russia, Russian's unwillingness to be a junior to China, Russia wants good relations with ALL Asian countries. They believe this alliance is unrealistic and a strategic partnership is more reasonable. 
  • ...25 more annotations...
  • In the joint statement issued by China and Russia, the main message is that China-Russia relations have reached a new stage of comprehensive strategic partnership and this will help increase both countries’ international status and influence, thus contributing to a more just international order
  • China secures a long-term (30 years) provision of natural gas from Russia and Russia can reduce its dependence on the European markets as well as strengthen Russia’s position against Western sanctions
  • Russia is now moving closer to China’s side with regard to the territorial disputes between China and Japan
  • China and Russia last week vetoed a draft UN resolution to send Syria to the International Criminal Court for war crimes. China and Russia had vetoed three previous UNSC resolutions condemning Syria
  • China and Russia signed a huge natural gas deal that is worth about $400 billion.
  • China and Russia will deepen cooperation under the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building in Asia (CICA), a new security framework in Asia-Pacific that conveniently excludes the U.S. and Japan.
  • , the main trigger is the recent Ukraine crisis that has seriously damaged Russia-West relations
  • mutual strategic needs as both China and Russia want to create a multipolar world that is not dominated by the U.S., particularly as China faces threats from the US-led alliance in Asia
  • China’s chance of winning maritime disputes with Japan partly depends on maintaining a good relationship with Russia
  • the NATO expansion is a serious threat to Russia’s national security and as such Russia has to fight back
  • new China-Russia alliance is now emerging and this will eventually lead to a multi-polar world order.
  • problems in China-Russia relations such as historical mistrust, the lack of a common threat, and conflicting interests in Central Asia
  • he most important factor determining whether China and Russia should form an alliance is whether the two countries have shared strategic interests and how long such shared strategic interests can last
  • China nor Russia could become a member of the Western bloc led by the U.S. because other allies of the U.S. would feel threatened by China and Russia
  • thus Russia has no better alternative to siding with China
  • , China’s number two position in the world means that China will not be supported by the U.S. with regard to most international affairs issues
  • Yan also refutes the argument that a China-Russia alliance against the U.S. would lead to another cold war.
  • ould be potentially high costs of such an alliance due to common problems such as fears of abandonment and entrapment
  • U.S. militarily threatens both China and Russia at the same time
  • Russia is unwilling to be China’s junior partner in the relationship
  • Russia wants to maintain good relations with all Asian states and thus will not side with China when it comes to territorial disputes between China and Japan
  • China-Russia alliance is unrealistic and a strategic partnership is more flexible and better for China.
  • seems that in the near future a formal alliance between China and Russia will not happen due to a variety of reasons.
  • China could be dragged into an unnecessary war by Russia
  • , a formal alliance will not occur
wmulnea

Strife in Libya Could Presage Long Civil War - NYTimes.com - 1 views

www.nytimes.com/...libyan-unrest.html

shared by wmulnea on 21 Sep 14 - No Cached
  • Salah Badi, an ultraconservative Islamist and former lawmaker from the coastal city of Misurata.
  • Mr. Badi’s assault on Libya’s main international airport has now drawn the country’s fractious militias, tribes and towns into a single national conflagration that threatens to become a prolonged civil war. Both sides see the fight as part of a larger regional struggle, fraught with the risks of a return to repressive authoritarianism or a slide toward Islamist extremism.
  • the violence threatens to turn Libya into a pocket of chaos destabilizing North Africa for years to come.
  • ...37 more annotations...
  • Ansar al-Shariah, the hard-line Islamist group involved in the assault on the American diplomatic Mission in Benghazi in 2012
  • Their opponents, including the militias stocked with former Qaddafi soldiers
  • The ideological differences are blurry at best: both sides publicly profess a similar conservative but democratic vision.
  • an escalating war among its patchwork of rival cities and tribes.
  • Motorists wait in lines stretching more than three miles at shuttered gas stations, waiting for them to open. Food prices are soaring, uncollected garbage is piling up in the streets and bicycles, once unheard-of, are increasingly common.
  • Tripoli, the capital and the main prize, has become a battleground
  • The fighting has destroyed the airport
  • Constant shelling between rival militias has leveled blocks
  • Storage tanks holding about 25 million gallons of fuel have burned unchecked for a month
  • with daily blackouts sometimes lasting more than 12 hours.
  • many Libyans despaired of any resolution
  • In Benghazi, Libya’s second-largest city, the fighting has closed both its airport and seaport, strangling the city.
  • the rush toward war is also lifting the fortunes of the Islamist extremists of Ansar al-Shariah, the Benghazi militant group.
  • The United Nations, the United States and the other Western powers have withdrawn their diplomats and closed their missions
  • “We cannot care more than you do,” the British ambassador, Michael Aron, wrote
  • Until now, a rough balance of power among local brigades had preserved a kind of equilibrium, if not stability
  • the transitional government scarcely existed outside of the luxury hotels where its officials gathered, no other force was strong enough to dominate. No single interest divided the competing cities and factions.
  • But that semblance of unity is now in tatters, and with it the hope that nonviolent negotiations might settle the competition for power and, implicitly, Libya’s oil.
  • In May, a renegade former general, Khalifa Hifter, declared that he would seize power by force to purge Libya of Islamists, beginning in Benghazi. He vowed to eradicate the hard-line Islamists of Ansar al-Shariah, blamed for a long series of bombings and assassinations.
  • General Hifter also pledged to close the Parliament and arrest moderate Islamist members
  • he has mustered a small fleet of helicopters and warplanes that have bombed rival bases around Benghazi, a steep escalation of the violence.
  • moderate Islamists and other brigades who had distanced themselves from Ansar al-Shariah began closing ranks, welcoming the group into a newly formed council of “revolutionary” militias
  • a broad alliance of Benghazi militias that now includes Ansar al-Shariah issued a defiant statement denouncing relative moderates like the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood. “We will not accept the project of democracy, secular parties, nor the parties that falsely claim the Islamic cause,”
  • the general’s blitz has now stalled, it polarized the country, drawing alarms from some cities and tribes but applause from others.
  • the loudest applause came from the western mountain town of Zintan, where local militia leaders had recruited hundreds of former Qaddafi soldiers into special brigades
  • the rival coastal city of Misurata, where militias have allied with the Islamists in political battles and jostled with the Zintanis for influence in the capital
  • the Misurata and Islamist militias developed a reputation for besieging government buildings and kidnapping high officials to try to pressure the Parliament. But in recent months the Zintanis and their anti-Islamist allies have stormed the Parliament and kidnapped senior lawmakers as well.
  • the newly elected Parliament, led at first, on a seniority basis, by a member supportive of Mr. Hifter, announced plans to convene in Tobruk, an eastern city under the general’s control.
  • About 30 members, most of them Islamists or Misuratans, refused to attend,
  • Tripoli’s backup airport, under the control of an Islamist militia, has cut off flights to Tobruk, even blocking a trip by the prime minister.
  • a spokesman for the old disbanded Parliament, favored by the Islamists and Misuratans, declared that it would reconvene in Tripoli
  • In Tobruk, a spokesman for the new Parliament declared that the Islamist- and Misuratan-allied militias were terrorists, suggesting that Libya might soon have two legislatures with competing armies
  • Each side has the support of competing satellite television networks financed and, often, broadcast from abroad, typically from Qatar for the Islamists and from the United Arab Emirates for their foes.
  • Hassan Tatanaki, a Libyan-born business mogul who owns one of the anti-Islamist satellite networks, speaking in an interview from an office in the Emirates. “We are in a state of war and this is no time for compromise.”
  • Fighters and tribes who fought one another during the uprising against Colonel Qaddafi are now coming together on the same side of the new fight, especially with the Zintanis against the Islamists. Some former Qaddafi officers who had fled Libya are even coming back to take up arms again.
  • “It is not pro- or anti-Qaddafi any more — it is about Libya,” said a former Qaddafi officer in a military uniform
  • Beneath the battle against “extremists,” he said, was an even deeper, ethnic struggle: the tribes of Arab descent, like the Zintanis, against those of Berber, Circassian or Turkish ancestry, like the Misuratis. “The victory will be for the Arab tribes,”
  • andrea_hoertz on 21 Sep 14
     
    Article explains the civil war that is erupting in Libya. Islamist extremists are trying to take over the country and towns and tribes of Libya are choosing sides. Tripoli has been the biggest battle ground and its airport was destroyed.
  • wmulnea on 11 Apr 15
     
    This NYT article gives an excellent outline of the prominent factions fighting in Libya, and the purpose and goals of those factions as of Aug, 2014.
  • wmulnea on 11 Apr 15
     
    This NYT article gives an excellent outline of the prominent factions fighting in Libya, and the purpose and goals of those factions as of Aug, 2014.
cbrock5654

Turkey-PKK Peace Process at Turning Point - 0 views

www.bbc.com/...world-europe-30000969

PKK Kurds Turkey peace talks

shared by cbrock5654 on 24 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • cbrock5654 on 24 Nov 14
     
    In this news article on the BBC, a PKK commander claims that while the both sides leadership desires to move forward with the peace process, the peace talks with Turkey are in danger of turning into conflict. Cemil Bayik, a PKK commander in the Qandil mountains, says that the Turkish government's treatment of Kobane shows that it still views the PKK and the Kurdish people as a bigger threat than ISIS. Meanwhile, a Turkish government official, Yasin Aktay, vice-chairman of the ruling AK Party, gave a statement saying that the PKK and the Kurds are using current time of instability to try to "upset the status quo", and try to set up a system of self-governance like Iraqi Kurdish groups. This article ends with dire warnings by both sides. Aktay warns that in the coming weeks and months, Turkey will actively try to prevent a "power grab" by the PKK in Kurdish towns. Meanwhile, Cemil Bayik says that unless the Turkish government changes its policies, the conflict between the Kurds and Turkey will continue, asserting that "if necessary the Kurds will fight against the Islamic State and the Turkish army."
  • cbrock5654 on 24 Nov 14
     
    A PKK commander tells the BBC that the peace process with Turkey is in danger of turning into conflict.
katelynklug

Government, Brotherhood fail to attract Egyptian youth - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the M... - 0 views

www.al-monitor.com/...therhood-youth-referendum.html

shared by katelynklug on 29 Sep 14 - No Cached
micklethwait liked it
  • youth decided to protest on the anniversary of Jan. 28, 2011, which was called the "Friday of Anger."
  • low participation of youth
  • been the fuel of the two popular revolutions
  • ...21 more annotations...
  • frustration over the return of Mubarak-era figures
  • submit a file that includes the names of the persons arbitrarily arrested
  • the youth must suggest replacements and alternative cadres who are not associated
  • We objected to
  • tarnishing of the image of the January 25 Revolution
  • apology was rejected by various revolutionary movements
  • return of remnants of the Mubarak regime
  • tarnishes our image in the media,
  • frustration, the arrests of activists
  • prevented the youth from demonstrating
  • we can only manage this homeland for all its people
  • through genuine participation of all segments
  • arrest of every person calling for a “no” vote o
  • not be participating in the Brotherhood’s protests
  • en in the referendum, compared to the low youth turnout. In a speech addressed t
  • o women on the day
  • women looking for safety and stability,
  • treating them with injustice
  • prefer peace and tolerance
  • youth’s low participation
  • a silent protest to abstain from taking part
  • katelynklug on 29 Sep 14
     
    Both the current Egyptian authorities and the Muslim Brotherhood have failed to attract the support of the youth, while women participated in the recent referendum to support stability. The youth see the remnants of Mubarak's administration through the government structure. The revolution wouldn't be important without changes to the government. Many political groups are trying to coax the youth to being on "their side," and meanwhile, the Egyptian youth are struggling to find any positives. Gaining the vote of the youth generally means a win or loss for the politicians.
  • katelynklug on 29 Sep 14
     
    Both the current Egyptian authorities and the Muslim Brotherhood have failed to attract the support of the youth, while women participated in the recent referendum to support stability. The youth see the remnants of Mubarak's administration through the government structure. The revolution wouldn't be important without changes to the government. Many political groups are trying to coax the youth to being on "their side," and meanwhile, the Egyptian youth are struggling to find any positives. Gaining the vote of the youth generally means a win or loss for the politicians.
fcastro2

BBC News - Russia and China veto UN move to refer Syria to ICC - 0 views

www.bbc.com/...world-middle-east-27514256

russia china syria politics

shared by fcastro2 on 06 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • Russia and China have vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that would have referred the conflict in Syria to the International Criminal Court (ICC
  • More than 60 countries supported the French-drafted text calling for an investigation into alleged war crimes being committed by both sides
  • It is the fourth time Russia and China have blocked Western resolutions relating to the situation in Syria
  • ...7 more annotations...
  • The 13 other members of the Security Council voted on Thursday in favour of the draft resolution, which condemned the "widespread violation" of human rights and international humanitarian law by Syrian government forces, as well as abuses by "non-state armed groups
  • France put forward the draft after the collapse of the UN-sponsored peace talks in Geneva in January and February, and amid growing horror at atrocities committed by both sides, reports the BBC's Barbara Plett Usher in New Yor
  • A veto would cover up all crimes. It would be vetoing justice
  • The Syrian government had called the resolution "biased" and an effort to "sabotage any chance of peaceful settlement of the Syrian crisis led by the Syrian people themselves
  • China had publicly remained silent in the lead-up to the vote
  • US envoy Samantha Power said that because of Russia and China's decision "to back the Syrian regime no matter what it does, the Syrian people will not see justice
  • Syria is not a party to the Rome Statute, the treaty establishing the ICC. Unless the government ratifies the treaty or accepts the jurisdiction of the court through a declaration, the ICC can only obtain jurisdiction if the Security Council refers the situation there to the court
  • fcastro2 on 06 Feb 15
     
    Russia and China once again veto a resolution that would have lead  to an investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC) of Syrian governments possible violation of human rights, and international humanitarian law. This is the fourth time both countries have vetoed resolutions relating to the situation in Syria.
ralqass

White House: Obama 'cleared the air' with Saudi Arabia - CNNPolitics.com - 0 views

www.cnn.com/...index.html

shared by ralqass on 25 Apr 16 - No Cached
  • ralqass on 25 Apr 16
     
    Barack Obama lands in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday as the U.S. alliance with the Mideast powerhouse is being questioned on both sides like never before.
mharcour

Obama Pushes for 1967 Lines Two State Deal - 0 views

www.bloomberg.com/...east-deal-based-on-1967-lines-

Israel Israeli-Palestinian conflict Palestine Two State Solution Obama 1967 Lines

shared by mharcour on 28 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • mharcour on 28 Feb 15
     
    In this Bloomberg article, the details of President Obama's speech on an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal were examined. Discussing the issues presenting on both sides (including the highly controversial Israeli settlements), President Obama pushed for a deal based upon the 1967 delineated lines.
mharcour

Camp David Summit Review - 0 views

www.jmcc.org/fastfactspag.aspx

Israel Israeli-Palestinian conflict Palestine Clinton Barak Arafat gaza Refugees

shared by mharcour on 16 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • mharcour on 16 Feb 15
     
    In this Jerusalem Media & Communication Centre release, the events of the Middle East Peace Summit are reviewed. While no peace agreement was made (and both sides claim that the other was unwilling while claiming to be overly fair), guidelines for future talks were settled upon.
tdford333

Why Yemen has come undone - CNN.com - 0 views

www.cnn.com/...goldstone-yemen-chaos

shared by tdford333 on 13 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • EmailFacebookgigyaS
  • tdford333 on 13 Apr 15
     
    As the United States has closed its embassy and withdrawn its last troops, Yemen has slid into total chaos, with rebels and jihadists on both sides capturing military bases and seizing tanks and heavy weapons.
joepouttu

Syria conflict: Peace talks delayed to let truce 'settle down' - BBC News - 0 views

www.bbc.com/...world-middle-east-35699353

Syria UN Peace Ceasefire

shared by joepouttu on 02 Mar 16 - No Cached
  • joepouttu on 02 Mar 16
     
    The UN has moved peace talks concerning Syria back to March 9th. This is to let the current cessation of hostilities settle down even more; there is a reduction in violence, but both sides of the conflict are still violating the cease fire.
mharcour

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Timeline from Both Sides - 0 views

pov-tc.pbs.org/...promises-timeline.pdf

Israeli-Palestinian conflict Israel Palestine Timeline

shared by mharcour on 08 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • mharcour on 08 Feb 15
     
    This is an interesting timeline put together by PBS exhibiting the development of the issues from both perspectives.
allieggg

The New Arab Cold War - 0 views

www.foreignpolicy.com/...r_saudi_arabia_uae_libya_syria

leadership proxy wars polarization US Saudi Qatar Turkey UAE politics war

shared by allieggg on 19 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • It stretches from Iraq to Lebanon and reaches into North Africa, taking lives in the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt's Western Desert, and now Libya
  • this violence is the result of a nasty fight between regional powers over who will lead the Middle East
  • The recent Egyptian and Emirati airstrikes on Libyan Islamist militias is just one manifestation of this fight for leadership among Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). All these countries have waded into conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and now Libya in order to establish themselves as regional leaders.
  • ...7 more annotations...
  • Turkish government has become a leading advocate of regime change in Syria. Unwilling to intervene in the Syrian civil war and unable to coax the United States to do so, Ankara turned a blind eye to extremist groups that used Turkish territory to take up the fight against Assad.
  • Barack Obama's attempt to disentangle the United States from the Middle East's many conflicts has only intensified these rivalries. From a particular perspective, Iraq's chaos, Syria's civil war, Libya's accelerating disintegration, and Hosni Mubarak's fall all represent failures of American leadership.
  • Yet these regional contenders for power have rarely achieved their goals. Instead, they have fueled violence, political conflict, and polarization, deepening the endemic problems in the countries they have sought to influence. 
  • Yet the war of words between Ankara and Cairo since then and the support that the Turkish government has extended to the Muslim Brotherhood
  • has only contributed to the political polarization and instability in Egypt
  • Qatar has been less circumspect than others in its support for groups fighting in Syria and Iraq, both offering official funding to Islamist groups in Syria and allowing private contributions to groups including al-Nusra Front, al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate.
  • These conflicts have less to do with Iran and the Sunni-Shiite divide than widely believed. Rather, they represent a fracturing of Washington's Sunni allies in the Middle East. Left to their own devices, the proxy wars the Saudis, Emiratis, Qataris, and Turks are waging among themselves will continue to cause mayhem
  • allieggg on 19 Nov 14
     
    This article basically states that since the US's withdrawal from Middle Eastern affairs, regional actors were left to fight over who will lead the region's future. The fight is baiscally a run off between Turkey, Qatar, Saudi, and the UAE, each country doing their part intervening in conflicts aiding their supported side. Rather than achieving goals, these proxy wars have fueled the violence, chaos, and polarization deepening the problems they originally sought to mend. While the US has succeeded in abstaining from Mid East affairs, the question now is whether or not they should continue this resignation or step in to urge for order and peace. 
wmulnea

Libya's civil war: An oily mess | The Economist - 3 views

www.economist.com/...de-tries-grab-oil-revenue-oily

shared by wmulnea on 09 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • Libya’s oil output is down to some 500,000 barrels a day, from as much as 1.7m at its peak (see chart)
  • The revenue is being fought over by both sides in the conflict, which has split the country between two rival governments—the one in Beida, the other in Tripoli—and their allied militias.
  • wmulnea on 09 Apr 15
     
    Libya is going broke as two competing factions vie for government control. The Beida based government is trying to move Libyan oil money off-shore.
fcastro2

Syria allies: Why Russia, Iran and China are standing by the regime - CNN.com - 1 views

www.cnn.com/...a-iran-china-russia-supporters

syria allies russia iran china middle east politics

shared by fcastro2 on 28 Jan 15 - No Cached
  • One has to do with economics; the other with ideology.
  • Russia is one of Syria's biggest arms suppliers
  • Syrian contracts with the Russian defense industry have likely exceeded $4 billion
  • ...29 more annotations...
  • Russia also leases a naval facility at the Syrian port of Tartu
  • Moscow also signed a $550 million deal with Syria for combat training jets
  • value of Russian arms sales to Syria at $162 million per year in both 2009 and 2010
  • Russia's key policy goal is blocking American efforts to shape the regio
  • Russia doesn't believe revolutions, wars and regime change bring stability and democracy
  • It believes humanitarian concerns are often used an excuse for pursuing America's own political and economic interests.
  • Putin's existential fear for his own survival and the survival of the repressive system that he and al-Assad represent
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 28 Jan 15
       
      Putin is scared that the "west" will defeat Russia if Syria is defeated
  • not only driven by the need to preserve its naval presence in the Mediterranean, secure its energy contracts, or counter the West on 'regime change
  • al-Assad cannot lose because it means that one day he, Putin, might as well
  • The West handles the Islamic world the way a monkey handles a grenade," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin tweeted
  • Russia is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. It has the power to veto Security Council resolutions against the Syrian regime and has done so repeatedly over the past two years
  • religion and strategy.
  • Islamic Republic has provided technical help such as intelligence, communications and advice on crowd control and weapons as protests in Syria morphed into resistance
  • The last thing Iran wants now is a Sunni-dominated Syria -- especially as the rebels' main supporters are Iran's Persian Gulf rivals: Qatar and Saudi Arabi
  • proxy through which Iran can threaten Israel with an arsenal of short-range missiles
  • Iran counted on Syria as its only Arab ally during its eight-year war with Iraq. Iraq was Sunni-dominate
  • war between the front of hegemony and the front of resistance
  • Syrian government is a victim of international plots
  • Iran says the main objective of this plot is to make the region safer for Israe
  • Many believe Iran is Washington's greatest threat in the region, especially with its nuclear potential
  • the Americans will sustain damage like when they interfered in Iraq and Afghanistan
  • Syria's third-largest importer in 2010, according to data from the European Commission
  • maintain its financial tie
  • indicates that China sees Syria as an important trading hub
  • China has said foreign countries shouldn't meddle in Syria's internal affairs
  • Rather than siding with either Assad or the opposition and standing aside to 'wait and see,' Beijing is actively betting on both
  • China said it is firmly opposed to the use of chemical weapons and supports the U.N.'s chemical weapons inspectors.
  • It also said it wants a political solution for Syri
  • China is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. And like Russia, China has repeatedly blocked sanctions attempts against the Syrian regime
  • fcastro2 on 28 Jan 15
     
    Syria's allies, Russia, Iran, and China, all stand by them despite western powers opposing the Syrian government. There are different reasons to why these powers seem to stay with Syria such as Russia's ideologies, Iran's strategy, or China's trading. Either way, these government will stand by them until there is nothing left to lose. 
wmulnea

Oil and Terror: ISIS and Middle East Economies - 0 views

www.investopedia.com/...-and-middle-east-economies.asp

shared by wmulnea on 02 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • ISIS's economic cost is significant not just for Iraq but also other Middle Eastern countries.
  • Iraq has the fifth largest oil reserves in the world and third highest in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia and Iran.
  • Part of ISIS's rise in Iraq can be attributed to sectarian politics.
  • ...15 more annotations...
  • part of their dissatisfaction came from the distribution of oil revenues. 
  • The mismanagement of oil revenues is also manifest in Iraq's poor infrastructure
  • Though currently the Iraqi government has reserves and surplus funds, mounting expenditures and falling oil prices has economists to project that Iraq will run a deficit next year.
  • it is running a self-sustaining economy, making it the world's richest terror group.
  • Thankfully, 6 of 8 Iraq’s major oil fields lie in the Shia South, which is unlikely to come under ISIS control.
  • It sells crude at a steep discount, at a rate of USD $30 per barrel
  • Turkey runs a huge trade surplus with Iraq, which is likely to slow down dramatically due to lower demand from Iraq.
  • Jordan and Lebanon, which have both absorbed a large number of refugees.
  • Iran’s position seems to be the trickiest of all in that its interests align with those of the US in its fight against ISIS
  • Falling oil prices have definitely curtailed Iran’s ability to intervene without serious consequences for its economy. Iran needs oil prices well above USD $100 for it to balance its budget,
  • Any cooperation between Iran and the US over ISIS could lead to a gradual withdrawal of sanctions, which would allow Iran to sell its oil on the open market and generate revenue. The flip side is that Iran’s oil would surely depress oil prices further.
  • Saudi's allegiances have become muddled.
  • it finds its interests are aligned with those of Iran, a traditional foe, both of which are against ISIS.
  • Russia needs oil prices near USD $100 to balance its budget and Iran needs high oil prices to support its nuclear program.
  • Regionally, ISIS will disrupt and degrade the economy of several states, and that in turn may lead to further political chaos -- which is precisely ISIS's goal.
allieggg

Mapping Libya's armed groups - Middle East - Al Jazeera English - 0 views

www.aljazeera.com/...lained-201452293619773132.html

libya armed groups middle east Revolution recontruction war militias

shared by allieggg on 12 Nov 14 - No Cached
  • Haftar accuses Congress of allowing "terrorists" to flourish in Libya and has vowed to "wipe them out", gaining support from much of the regular armed forces and nationalist militias. Other militias have lined up to oppose him, insisting his attacks amount to a "coup".
  • 1. National Army
  • 2. Regular forces
  • ...23 more annotations...
  • re-formed to help fight in the uprising against Gaddafi in 2011.
  • composed of non-Islamist fighters and former soldiers
  • Haftar used it to launch Operation Libyan Dignity on May 16, saying his mission was to dissolve the General National Congress, which he labelled Islamist, and to destroy "terrorists" he said Congress had allowed to establish bases in Libya.
  • National Army is a nationalist armed group controlled by Khalifa Haftar, rather than Libya’s national army.
  • small army and air force have mostly defected to Haftar. Libya’s armed forces fought on both Gaddafi and the rebel side in the 2011 uprising. Since then, the army has been rebuilding, with most of its units in training.
  • fighting a tit-for-tat battle against Islamist militias for more than a year.
  • 3. Zintan
  • Zintan's militias are the second most powerful armed force in Libya, after Misrata, and based in the Nafusa mountains 144km southwest of Tripoli.
  • regard themselves as opponents of both Congress and Islamists.
  • Zintan formed one of the three fronts in the uprising and by the end of that uprising, Zintan brigades surged into Tripoli, with several maintaining bases in the city and holding the international airport.
  • 2. Ansar al-Sharia
  • 1. LROR 
  • Libyan Revolutionary Operations Room was formed in 2013 as the headquarters of the Libya Shield, an alliance of pro-Congress militias.
  • accused by opponents of being Islamist,
  • LROR led a powerful Shield force to Tripoli last year to defend Congress.
  • 3. Misrata
  • With strong affiliations with the Muslim Brotherhood’s Justice and Construction Party, LROR will have much to lose if Haftar takes power.
  • dedicated to establishing a caliphate in Libya
  • The US blamed Ansar al-Sharia for the assault on the US consulate in Benghazi that saw the death of Ambassador Chris Stevens in 2012.
  • On May 18, two days after Hiftar’s forces attacked Benghazi, two Zintan militias stormed the national congress building in Tripoli.
  • Misrata’s 235 militia brigades are collectively the most powerful single force in Libya, fighting through a six-month siege during the uprising.
  • They are equipped with heavy weapons, tanks and truck-launched rockets and have the power to be a decisive force in any struggle between Haftar and Islamist forces.
  • Many Misratan leaders back the Islamists in Congress, and Misratan brigades once formed a key part of the Libya Shield force in Tripoli.
  • allieggg on 12 Nov 14
     
    After the ousting of the Gaddafi regime the country pivoted into civil chaos. Because of the deficiency of structure and state autonomy, armed militias have become the dominant force in determining Libya's future governmental system. While the UN has internationally recognized the NTC as the interim government to ultimately turn the country into a democratic one, militias have taken things into their own hands tipping the country towards the brink of civil war. General Khalifa Haftar launched his Operation Dignity campaign accusing congress of allowing terrorists flourish in Libya and vowed to wipe them out, gaining much support from the regular armed forces and nationalist militias. The opposition to Haftar insist that his attacks are aiming for a military coup. This article was helpful in highlighting the armed groups and dividing them by Pro-Haftar and Pro-Congress sections. 
fcastro2

Syrian Opposition Groups Wary Of Russia's Invitation To Moscow : NPR - 0 views

www.npr.org/...f-russias-invitation-to-moscow

russia opposition groups syria politics peace talks war

shared by fcastro2 on 13 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • U.N. envoy is pressing ahead on that front, while Russia tries to play peacemaker
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 13 Feb 15
       
      U.N. continues to try to collaborate with both groups while Russia wants to be a "peacemaker."
  • Russia is inviting the parties to Moscow this month, but some opposition groups won't go to a country that has been backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 13 Feb 15
       
      Rebel groups in Syria do not trust the Russian government since they have been supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. 
  • ...14 more annotations...
  • Syrian opposition figures have good reason to be skeptical of Moscow's diplomatic moves
  • they provide weapons and advice to the Assad regime and they have taken an approach of cherry-picking who they talk to and who the regime talks to
  • The U.S. is not pressuring the opposition groups it supports to go to Moscow. Instead it's suggesting they should think about it so that Russia can't blame the opposition for the diplomatic stalemate
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 13 Feb 15
       
      U.S. is not pushing for the opposition groups to go to Moscow to talk peace but they feel they have nothing to lose if they do.
  • "If there are no guarantees as to the end state, that is, a movement towards a transitional government with full executive powers without Assad, then there is really no reason to go
  • meant to revive the peace process that started in Geneva in 2012
  • Russians aren't in a position to decide who will take part in future negotiations. And this has been the whole problem with their approach.
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 13 Feb 15
       
      Russian strategy
  • He says the Russian job has always been to deliver the regime to the negotiating table, but the Syrian government only wants to talk about fighting terrorism, not discuss a political transition.
  • We are hoping, more than expecting, that it will be a success," he says.De Mistura describes Syria as the largest humanitarian crisis since World War II
  • They all agree that we need to do something to avoid that the Syrian conflict goes into a back burner and that movement towards some type of political solution should take place this year,"
  • He says that's because Assad thinks he's winning — and U.S. plans to train and equip 5,000 moderate rebels a year won't help level the playing field.
  • The rise of the self-proclaimed Islamic State and the U.S.-led airstrikes against that group in both Syria and Iraq now top the U.S. agenda.
  • war in Syria has been raging for nearly four years and it's been challenging for diplomats to get warring sides to agree on even temporary truces.
    • fcastro2
      fcastro2 on 13 Feb 15
       
      No guarantees as to what the alleged "peace talks" will provide from the opposition groups. 
  • fcastro2 on 13 Feb 15
     
    Russia is attempting to bring opposition groups and the Syrian government to Moscow in order to "talk peace." In the past, Russia has supported the Syrian President and because of this, opposition groups are wearing of these alleged "peace talks." 
wmulnea

Libya's civil war: That it should come to this | The Economist - 3 views

www.economist.com/...factional-chaos-it-should-come

shared by wmulnea on 11 Apr 15 - No Cached
  • It is split between a government in Beida, in the east of the country, which is aligned with the military; and another in Tripoli, in the west, which is dominated by Islamists and militias from western coastal cities
  • Benghazi is again a battlefield.
  • The black plumes of burning oil terminals stretch out over the Mediterranean.
  • ...69 more annotations...
  • Libya looked like the latest fragile blossoming of the Arab spring
  • Army commanders, mostly of Arab Bedouin origin, refused orders to shoot the protesters
  • the revolutionaries cobbled together a National Transitional Council (NTC) claiming to represent all of Libya
  • Volunteers from students to bank managers took up arms, joining popular militias and only sometimes obeying the orders of defecting army commanders trying to take control
  • In August Western bombing of government bases surrounding Tripoli cleared an avenue for the revolutionaries to take the capital.
  • Recognised abroad, popular at home and enjoying the benefits of healthy oil revenues—97% of the government’s income—the NTC was well placed to lay the foundations for a new Libya
  • he judges, academics and lawyers who filled its ranks worried about their own legitimacy and feared confrontation with the militias which, in toppling Qaddafi, had taken his arsenals for their own.
  • militia leaders were already ensconced in the capital’s prime properties
  • The NTC presided over Libya’s first democratic elections in July 2012, and the smooth subsequent handover of power to the General National Congress (GNC) revived popular support for the revolution.
  • Islamist parties won only 19 of 80 seats assigned to parties in the new legislature, and the process left the militias on the outside
  • The Homeland party, founded by Abdel Hakim Belhad
  • tried to advertise its moderation by putting an unveiled woman at the head of its party list in Benghazi
  • The incumbent prime minister, Abdurrahim al-Keib, a university professor who had spent decades in exile, fretted and dithered
  • He bowed to militia demands for their leaders to be appointed to senior ministries, and failed to revive public-works programmes
  • which might have given militiamen jobs
  • Many received handouts without being required to hand in weapons or disband, an incentive which served to swell their ranks
  • the number of revolutionaries registered with the Warriors Affairs Commission set up by the NTC was about 60,000; a year later there were over 200,000. Of some 500 registered militias, almost half came from one city, Misrata.
  • In May 2013 the militias forced parliament to pass a law barring from office anyone who had held a senior position in Qaddafi’s regime after laying siege to government ministries.
  • In the spring of 2014, Khalifa Haftar, a retired general who had earlier returned from two decades of exile in America, forcibly tried to dissolve the GNC and re-establish himself as the armed forces’ commander-in-chief in an operation he called Dignity
  • The elections which followed were a far cry from the happy experience of 2012. In some parts of the country it was too dangerous to go out and vote
  • Such retrenchment has been particularly noticeable among women. In 2011 they created a flurry of new civil associations; now many are back indoors.
  • Turnout in the June 2014 elections was 18%, down from 60% in 2012, and the Islamists fared even worse than before
  • Dismissing the results, an alliance of Islamist, Misratan and Berber militias called Libya Dawn launched a six-week assault on Tripoli. The newly elected parliament decamped to Tobruk, some 1,300km east
  • Grasping for a figleaf of legitimacy, Libya Dawn reconstituted the pre-election GNC and appointed a new government
  • So today Libya is split between two parliaments—both boycotted by their own oppositions and inquorate—two governments, and two central-bank governors.
  • The army—which has two chiefs of staff—is largely split along ethnic lines, with Arab soldiers in Arab tribes rallying around Dignity and the far fewer Misratan and Berber ones around Libya Dawn.
  • Libya Dawn controls the bulk of the territory and probably has more fighters at its disposal.
  • General Haftar’s Dignity, which has based its government in Beida, has air power and, probably, better weaponry
  • the Dignity movement proclaims itself America’s natural ally in the war on terror and the scourge of jihadist Islam
  • Libya Dawn’s commanders present themselves as standard-bearers of the revolution against Qaddafi now continuing the struggle against his former officers
  • Ministers in the east vow to liberate Tripoli from its “occupation” by Islamists, all of whom they denounce as terrorists
  • threatens to take the war to Egypt if Mr Sisi continues to arm the east. Sleeping cells could strike, he warns, drawn from the 2m tribesmen of Libyan origin in Egypt.
  • Yusuf Dawar
  • The struggle over the Gulf of Sirte area, which holds Libya’s main oil terminals and most of its oil reserves, threatens to devastate the country’s primary asset
  • And in the Sahara, where the largest oilfields are, both sides have enlisted ethnic minorities as proxies
  • ibya Dawn has drafted in the brown-skinned Tuareg, southern cousins of the Berbers; Dignity has recruited the black-skinned Toubou. As a result a fresh brawl is brewing in the Saharan oasis of Ubari, which sits at the gates of the al-Sharara oilfield, largest of them all.
  • Oil production has fallen and become much more volatile
  • oil is worth half as much as it was a year ago
  • The Central Bank is now spending at three times the rate that it is taking in oil money
  • The bank is committed to neutrality, but is based in Tripoli
  • Tripoli may have a little more access to cash, but is in bad shape in other ways
  • Fuel supplies and electricity are petering out
  • Crime is rising; carjacking street gangs post their ransom demands on Twitter
  • In Fashloum
  • residents briefly erected barricades to keep out a brigade of Islamists, the Nuwassi
  • “No to Islamists and the al-Qaeda gang” reads the roadside graffiti
  • Libya’s ungoverned spaces are growing,
  • Each month 10,000 migrants set sail for Europe
  • On January 3rd, IS claimed to have extended its reach to Libya’s Sahara too, killing a dozen soldiers at a checkpoint
  • The conflict is as likely to spread as to burn itself out.
  • the Western powers
  • have since been conspicuous by their absence. Chastened by failure in Afghanistan and Iraq, they have watched from the sidelines
  • Obama washed his hands of Libya after Islamists killed his ambassador
  • Italy, the former colonial power, is the last country to have a functioning embassy in Tripoli.
  • Even under Qaddafi the country did not feel so cut off
  • Dignity is supported not just by Mr Sisi but also by the United Arab Emirates, which has sent its own fighter jets into the fray as well as providing arms
  • The UAE’s Gulf rival, Qatar, and Turkey have backed the Islamists and Misratans in the west
  • If oil revenues were to be put into an escrow account, overseas assets frozen and the arms embargo honoured he thinks it might be possible to deprive fighters of the finance that keeps them fighting and force them to the table
  • Until 1963 Libya was governed as three federal provinces—Cyrenaica in the east, Fezzan in the south and Tripolitania in the west
  • The old divisions still matter
  • the marginalised Cyrenaicans harked back to the time when their king split his time between the courts of Tobruk and Beida and when Arabs from the Bedouin tribes of the Green Mountains ran his army
  • Tensions between those tribes and Islamist militias ran high from the start.
  • July 2011 jihadists keen to settle scores with officers who had crushed their revolt in the late 1990s killed the NTC’s commander-in-chief, Abdel Fattah Younis, who came from a powerful Arab tribe in the Green Mountains. In June 2013 the Transitional Council of Barqa (the Arab name for Cyrenaica), a body primarily comprised of Arab tribes, declared the east a separate federal region, and soon after allied tribal militias around the Gulf of Sirte took control of the oilfields.
  • In the west, indigenous Berbers, who make up about a tenth of the population, formed a council of their own and called on larger Berber communities in the Maghreb and Europe for support
  • Port cities started to claim self-government and set up their own border controls.
  • Derna—a small port in the east famed for having sent more jihadists per person to fight in Iraq than anywhere else in the world
  • opposed NATO intervention and insisted that the NTC was a pagan (wadani) not national (watani) council
  • Some in Derna have now declared their allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the caliph of the so-called Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq.
  • In December the head of America’s Africa command told reporters that IS was training some 200 fighters in the town.
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