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A UN commission of inquiry,

the total numbe

said it could only have been carried out by Syria's government.

regime and its ally Russia blamed rebels.

More than 3 million people have fled Syria since the start of the conflict,

A further 6.5 million people, 50% of them children, are believed to be internally displaced within Syria,

Western powers,

half the country's population.

rebel groups are also deeply divided

most prominent is the moderate National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces

Iran and Russia have propped up the Alawite-led government of President Assad and gradually increased their support,

support of Lebanon's Shia Islamist Hezbollah movement.

The Sunni-dominated oppositio

Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Arab states along with the US, UK and France.

rise of radical Islamist militia in rebel ranks and the arrival of Sunni jihadists from across the world has led to a marked cooling of international and regional backing.

Libya looked like the latest fragile blossoming of the Arab spring

Army commanders, mostly of Arab Bedouin origin, refused orders to shoot the protesters

the revolutionaries cobbled together a National Transitional Council (NTC) claiming to represent all of Libya

Volunteers from students to bank managers took up arms, joining popular militias and only sometimes obeying the orders of defecting army commanders trying to take control

In August Western bombing of government bases surrounding Tripoli cleared an avenue for the revolutionaries to take the capital.

Recognised abroad, popular at home and enjoying the benefits of healthy oil revenues—97% of the government’s income—the NTC was well placed to lay the foundations for a new Libya

he judges, academics and lawyers who filled its ranks worried about their own legitimacy and feared confrontation with the militias which, in toppling Qaddafi, had taken his arsenals for their own.

militia leaders were already ensconced in the capital’s prime properties

The NTC presided over Libya’s first democratic elections in July 2012, and the smooth subsequent handover of power to the General National Congress (GNC) revived popular support for the revolution.

Islamist parties won only 19 of 80 seats assigned to parties in the new legislature, and the process left the militias on the outside

The Homeland party, founded by Abdel Hakim Belhad

tried to advertise its moderation by putting an unveiled woman at the head of its party list in Benghazi

The incumbent prime minister, Abdurrahim al-Keib, a university professor who had spent decades in exile, fretted and dithered

He bowed to militia demands for their leaders to be appointed to senior ministries, and failed to revive public-works programmes

which might have given militiamen jobs

Many received handouts without being required to hand in weapons or disband, an incentive which served to swell their ranks

the number of revolutionaries registered with the Warriors Affairs Commission set up by the NTC was about 60,000; a year later there were over 200,000. Of some 500 registered militias, almost half came from one city, Misrata.

In May 2013 the militias forced parliament to pass a law barring from office anyone who had held a senior position in Qaddafi’s regime after laying siege to government ministries.

In the spring of 2014, Khalifa Haftar, a retired general who had earlier returned from two decades of exile in America, forcibly tried to dissolve the GNC and re-establish himself as the armed forces’ commander-in-chief in an operation he called Dignity

The elections which followed were a far cry from the happy experience of 2012. In some parts of the country it was too dangerous to go out and vote

Such retrenchment has been particularly noticeable among women. In 2011 they created a flurry of new civil associations; now many are back indoors.

Turnout in the June 2014 elections was 18%, down from 60% in 2012, and the Islamists fared even worse than before

Dismissing the results, an alliance of Islamist, Misratan and Berber militias called Libya Dawn launched a six-week assault on Tripoli. The newly elected parliament decamped to Tobruk, some 1,300km east

Grasping for a figleaf of legitimacy, Libya Dawn reconstituted the pre-election GNC and appointed a new government

So today Libya is split between two parliaments—both boycotted by their own oppositions and inquorate—two governments, and two central-bank governors.

The army—which has two chiefs of staff—is largely split along ethnic lines, with Arab soldiers in Arab tribes rallying around Dignity and the far fewer Misratan and Berber ones around Libya Dawn.

Libya Dawn controls the bulk of the territory and probably has more fighters at its disposal.

General Haftar’s Dignity, which has based its government in Beida, has air power and, probably, better weaponry

the Dignity movement proclaims itself America’s natural ally in the war on terror and the scourge of jihadist Islam

Libya Dawn’s commanders present themselves as standard-bearers of the revolution against Qaddafi now continuing the struggle against his former officers

Ministers in the east vow to liberate Tripoli from its “occupation” by Islamists, all of whom they denounce as terrorists

threatens to take the war to Egypt if Mr Sisi continues to arm the east. Sleeping cells could strike, he warns, drawn from the 2m tribesmen of Libyan origin in Egypt.

Yusuf Dawar

The struggle over the Gulf of Sirte area, which holds Libya’s main oil terminals and most of its oil reserves, threatens to devastate the country’s primary asset

And in the Sahara, where the largest oilfields are, both sides have enlisted ethnic minorities as proxies

ibya Dawn has drafted in the brown-skinned Tuareg, southern cousins of the Berbers; Dignity has recruited the black-skinned Toubou. As a result a fresh brawl is brewing in the Saharan oasis of Ubari, which sits at the gates of the al-Sharara oilfield, largest of them all.

Oil production has fallen and become much more volatile

oil is worth half as much as it was a year ago

The Central Bank is now spending at three times the rate that it is taking in oil money

The bank is committed to neutrality, but is based in Tripoli

Tripoli may have a little more access to cash, but is in bad shape in other ways

Fuel supplies and electricity are petering out

Crime is rising; carjacking street gangs post their ransom demands on Twitter

In Fashloum

residents briefly erected barricades to keep out a brigade of Islamists, the Nuwassi

“No to Islamists and the al-Qaeda gang” reads the roadside graffiti

Libya’s ungoverned spaces are growing,

Each month 10,000 migrants set sail for Europe

On January 3rd, IS claimed to have extended its reach to Libya’s Sahara too, killing a dozen soldiers at a checkpoint

The conflict is as likely to spread as to burn itself out.

the Western powers

have since been conspicuous by their absence. Chastened by failure in Afghanistan and Iraq, they have watched from the sidelines

Obama washed his hands of Libya after Islamists killed his ambassador

Italy, the former colonial power, is the last country to have a functioning embassy in Tripoli.

Even under Qaddafi the country did not feel so cut off

Dignity is supported not just by Mr Sisi but also by the United Arab Emirates, which has sent its own fighter jets into the fray as well as providing arms

The UAE’s Gulf rival, Qatar, and Turkey have backed the Islamists and Misratans in the west

If oil revenues were to be put into an escrow account, overseas assets frozen and the arms embargo honoured he thinks it might be possible to deprive fighters of the finance that keeps them fighting and force them to the table

Until 1963 Libya was governed as three federal provinces—Cyrenaica in the east, Fezzan in the south and Tripolitania in the west

The old divisions still matter

the marginalised Cyrenaicans harked back to the time when their king split his time between the courts of Tobruk and Beida and when Arabs from the Bedouin tribes of the Green Mountains ran his army

Tensions between those tribes and Islamist militias ran high from the start.

July 2011 jihadists keen to settle scores with officers who had crushed their revolt in the late 1990s killed the NTC’s commander-in-chief, Abdel Fattah Younis, who came from a powerful Arab tribe in the Green Mountains. In June 2013 the Transitional Council of Barqa (the Arab name for Cyrenaica), a body primarily comprised of Arab tribes, declared the east a separate federal region, and soon after allied tribal militias around the Gulf of Sirte took control of the oilfields.

In the west, indigenous Berbers, who make up about a tenth of the population, formed a council of their own and called on larger Berber communities in the Maghreb and Europe for support

Port cities started to claim self-government and set up their own border controls.

Derna—a small port in the east famed for having sent more jihadists per person to fight in Iraq than anywhere else in the world

opposed NATO intervention and insisted that the NTC was a pagan (wadani) not national (watani) council

Some in Derna have now declared their allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the caliph of the so-called Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq.

In December the head of America’s Africa command told reporters that IS was training some 200 fighters in the town.

Because hundreds of refugees cross the Syrian-Turkish border every day, the jihadists have a good chance of remaining unnoticed in the crowds.

Kobane is a town of key strategic importance to both ISIS and the Kurdish resistance due to its close proximity to the largely porous Turkish border. 

Twitter app called The Dawn of Glad Tidings, or just Dawn.

way to keep up on the latest news about the jihadi group.

Once you sign up, the app will post tweets to your account

spaced out to avoid triggering Twitter’s spam-detection algorithms

organized hashtag campaigns

repetitively tweet hashtags at certain times of day so that they trend on the social network. 

ISIS hashtag consistently outperforms that of the group’s main competitor in Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra, even though the two groups have a similar number of supporters online.

ISIS also uses hashtags to focus-group messaging and branding concepts, much like a Western corporation might.

ISIS does have legitimate support online—but less than it might seem.

“The national Libyan army is in control of Benghazi and only withdrew from certain positions for tactical reasons,” Haftar told Al Arabiya News Channel.

Ansar al-Sharia’s declaration comes a month after jihadist militant group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) announced an “Islamic caliphate” over their territory.

The extent of recent hostilities has increased Western worries that Libya is sliding toward becoming a failed state and may once again go to war.

Sheikh’s case and several other recent terrorism prosecutions shed light on the growing importance of social media in the battles unfolding in Syria and Iraq -- both as a recruiting tool for Islamic terrorist groups like ISIS and the Al-Nusra Front, and as a means for the FBI to pre-emptively nab the would-be jihadis.

raises questions about the FBI’s conduct in attempting to head off terrorist recruits and whether they incited them to actions they wouldn’t have otherwise taken.

using fake social media identities to engage them

catfishing” by luring him into a personal relationship with a phony online persona.

During the investigation, the FBI published a webpage that purported to recruit individuals to travel to Syria and join Jabhat al-Nusra (

posed as a Syrian nurse and "used a Facebook page which promoted the ideology of Islamic extremism" to contact the suspect,

been able to expand their reach far beyond the traditional jihadi recruitment pool to a much wider audience -- including English-speaking Western nationals."

FBI at times goes too far to reel in American Muslims, most of them young, who are sympathetic to the Islamic extremist cause.

her client is “a lonely, mentally ill young man with a tremendous desire to be liked,” which made him susceptible to a paid FBI informant’s online encouragement.

Suspects began posting on Facebook or other social media expressing support for or seeking contact with one of the Islamic groups fighting in Iraq and Syria and were then engaged by informants or undercover FBI agents.

eventually agreed to join Al-Nusra, purchased a plane ticket to Beirut and prepared for his journey to jihad

'Don't go there in any way, don't go there in thought or expression, don't even toy with the idea of becoming foreign fighters.'"

social media counterterrorism operations,

informant, however, suggested that Sheikh instead join the Al-Nusra Front, an al Qaeda affiliate t

provided Sheikh with contact information for a supposed Al-Nusra agent.

could help get him inside

face up to 15 years in prison and fines of $250,000 if they are convicted

sending a message to potential terrorist recruits is indeed important.

sought to make contact with al Qaeda officials on Facebook and other social media, but instead drew the attention of an undercover FBI agent who presented himself as a recruiter for the terrorist group.

making examples of individuals

defense attorneys in all four cases may argue that the FBI actions amounted to entrapment -- the act of tricking someone into committing a crime so that they can be arrested

"ISIS recruits are more likely to reach out in the online universe seeking advice on how to reach the land of jihad than to consult the guidance of a traditional cleric or local community leader

that universe and creating honeypots to draw in and capture potential ISIS recruits, they can help sow doubts in the minds of would-be jihadists in the overall reliability of the Internet as a medium for recruit

Justice Department plans to review federal law enforcement practices on creating fake Facebook pages in light of an incident,