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"Slowing climate change requires overcoming inertia in political, technological, and geophysical systems. Of these, only geophysical warming commitment has been quantified. We estimated the commitment to future emissions and warming represented by existing carbon dioxide-emitting devices. We calculated cumulative future emissions of 496 (282 to 701 in lower- and upper-bounding scenarios) gigatonnes of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels by existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060, forcing mean warming of 1.3°C (1.1° to 1.4°C) above the pre-industrial era and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 less than 430 parts per million. Because these conditions would likely avoid many key impacts of climate change, we conclude that sources of the most threatening emissions have yet to be built. However, CO2-emitting infrastructure will expand unless extraordinary efforts are undertaken to develop alternatives. "

The Zuni Indians thought a red moon brought water. Seventeenth-century English farmers believed in a "dripping moon," which supplied rain depending on whether its crescent was tilted up or down. Now scientists have found evidence for another adage: Rain follows the full and new phases of the moon. Most studies on the weather and moon phases appeared in the 1960s and seemed to lend credence to lunar folklore. Researchers detected more peaks in rainfall in the days after the full and new moons, for example. Recently, three researchers decided to revive the issue when they stumbled across a link between moon phases and stream runoff while working on another project. They will soon publish in Geophysical Research Letters one of the most comprehensive studies yet, with more than a century of data from across the continental United States.

Aerosols Altered Asian Monsoons Summer monsoons provide much of the water for farming on the Indian subcontinent, but the pattern of rain shifted dramatically during the last half of the 20th century. In a study appearing online 29 September in Science, researchers pin the blame on soot and other aerosols from human activities. From 1951 to 1999, central-northern India became drier while Pakistan, northwestern India, and southern India got wetter. To determine whether these changes were due to natural variability or human interference (greenhouse gases or aerosols), climate scientists Massimo Bollasina, Yi Ming, and V. Ramaswamy of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA in Princeton, New Jersey, compared the history of rainfall with simulations that singled out each climate "forcing" factor to observe its impact. Although greenhouse gases would have increased rainfall over north-central India, the aerosols, they found, caused the "very pronounced drying trend," Ming says. Here's why: Under normal conditions, the northern hemisphere receives more energy from the sun from June to September; that imbalance drives the ocean-atmosphere circulation that powers the monsoons. But atmospheric aerosols shaded the northern hemisphere relative to the southern hemisphere, altering the energy balance between the two-weakening the circulation and altering where the rain falls.

"Oil Exploration Oil Exploration Gulf Drilling Disaster Triggers Scrutiny of Mediterranean Oil Rush 1. Laura Margottini* A rush to find and extract oil in the Mediterranean Sea is threatening one of the planet's marine biodiversity hot spots, scientists warn. PANTELLERIA, ITALY-This tiny speck in the Mediterranean, home to a few thousand people, seems like one of the most tranquil places in the world. But looks are deceptive. Pantelleria, in the Strait of Sicily halfway between Palermo and Tunis, is close to one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, and of late, its waters have also become the center of a new oil rush. Attracted by Italy's easygoing drilling regulations and low tax on oil extraction, dozens of companies have new plans for exploration and drilling in this part of the Mediterranean Sea. At a recent meeting here,* however, scientists, conservationists, and environmental activists warned that such efforts put several important biodiversity hot spots in danger. An oil disaster like the Deepwater Horizon explosion, which sent oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico for months, could easily ruin the Mediterranean ecology for a century or longer, some said. The Italian government has recently issued 66 permissions for drilling around its coasts and 25 concessions for exploration. Another 67 applications for exploration are under review. "Italy now represents the region that holds the most exciting and significant long-term opportunities," one company, Northern Petroleum, says on its Web site. The Strait of Sicily is the center of attention, but other biodiversity hot spots, such as the Tremiti Islands in the Adriatic Sea, could soon be explored as well. Italy isn't alone. Tunisia, for example, has granted concessions for oil exploration for most of its Mediterranean waters, without much political opposition. But the areas coveted by oil companies are ecological treasures, researchers and groups such as Greenpeace Italy stress. Last year, the Uni