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sheba birhanu

Definitions - 6 views

Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC): A line of credit extended to a homeowner that uses the borrower's home as collateral. Once a maximum loan balance is established, the homeowner may draw on the l...

mortgage loan property

Madelyn Au

Key Facts - 11 views

These were all the most prominent information gathered from the sites in our bookmarks

Madelyn Au

Time to panic about the housing market - Business - Macleans.ca - 3 views

  • One of the really terrible narratives we’ve allowed to develop in the minds of Canadians is that somehow we are better than the U.S. and so that means we have nothing to be concerned about
    • Madelyn Au
       
      Current Characteristics - Human Pyschology
  • the end of 2010, the average homeowner had just 34.3 per cent equity in their home
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  • sharp rise in home ownership rates
  • overbuilding and Canada’s still healthy construction industry. New building permits reached $6.8 billion in December, a 4.5-year high.
  • boom has been fuelled by cheap and abundant credit thanks to a low interest rate policy pursued by the Bank of Canada, along with government-insured mortgages.
  • evidence the tide may already be turning in Canada’s housing market. The Canadian Real Estate Association reported home sales had fallen 4.5 per cent in January compared to December, the steepest decline since July 2010
  • verage price topping $348,000 in January, Canadian homes are now worth a total of $3 trillion, nearly twice the country’s GDP
  • Home prices have doubled since 2002 and risen 13 per cent since the global recession hit in 2008.
  • ome prices rise, so does consumer confidence. Canadians, believing that their bricks and mortar are a gold mine, have become ever more willing to open their wallets
  • housing boom has helped prop up Canada’s construction industry
  • , which now represents 7.4 per cent of the labour force, higher than it was in the U.S. at the height of its boom
  • eal estate agents, mortgage brokers and insurance companies, and the sector represents a staggering 27 per cent of the Canadian workforc
  • As of last year, Canadians had pulled roughly $220 billion from their houses in revolving home equity lines of credit, a per capita amount three times larger than the U.S. at its peak.
  • HELOCs, have increased 170 per cent in the past decade, twice as fast as new mortgages
  • federal government recognized just how risky HELOCs had become last April, when it announced it would no longer allow the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation to insure them.
  • home equity withdrawals were a large factor in fuelling the economic recovery
  • Overconfidence is what’s driving the market
  • The low interest rates are encouraging people to buy houses and take on debt
  • Bank of Canada has held its key interest rate at one per cent since September 2010, and most economists expect the bank to keep it there until well into next year.
  • Low interest rates
  • can have a perverse effect on an economy when they stay low for years
  • Inflation spent much of 2011 at three per cent, above the bank’s target rate of two per cent
  • Carney’s hands have been somewhat tied by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is expected to keep its interest rate at near zero until 2014
  • Raising Canada’s rates too high by comparison would inflate the loonie, punishing exports and manufacturing.
  • Getting back to normal interest rates of three to four per cent becomes increasingly difficult the longer rates stay low
  • TD’s Alexander believes an interest rate hike of two percentage points would push 10 per cent of Canadians into danger territory where they would be spending upwards of 40 per cent of their income on debt payments.
  • Mortgage rates are especially vulnerable. Shorter-term variable rates, which are linked to the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate, have become increasingly popular, now making up about 40 per cent of the market.
  • warned that it was close to maxing out its $600-billion budget for insurance
  • half a million homeowners swapped their fixed-rate mortgage for variable rates last year.
  • he CM
  • Conservative government has taken some steps to tighten mortgage rules, including lowering amortization periods to 30 years from 40, and raising the minimum down payment for CMHC insurance to five per cent from nothing
  • household debt is it’s not a problem until it’s a problem. But when it becomes a problem, it’s usually a really big problem
  • average Canadian home now costs five times the average income
  • consumer spending has gone from 58 per cent of Canada’s GDP to 65 per cent.
  • the CMHC
  • Since 2008, Canada’s ratio of debt to after-tax income has exploded
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    This one has a lot of facts & statistics. -Comparison of the Canadian housing market to US housing market before their bubble burst -Characteristics of the Canadian Housing Bubble -Current monetary policies & financial activities in the housing market -Economic Indicators that prove Canada's in a housing bubble
Christie Park

Be Very Afraid Of The Canadian Housing Bubble - 0 views

  • I want people who are considering buying a house in Canada to be the most frightened. People who just bought a house also have every right to be nervous. But even if you don't have a stake in the property market, I would like you, too, to be fearful of a bubble in Canadian property.
  • Unlike in the United States, it is very hard for Canadians to walk away from their mortgage responsibilities. Mortgage insurance protects your bank, not you. Here, a default is not a get out of jail free card
  • In Canada, mortgage interest cannot be deducted from your taxes. Instead, we only benefit by getting tax-free capital gains after you sell.
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  • And that is why I want to spread fear. Because though we may not be in a bubble now, if we keep this up, we are going to be. And if a bubble pops, that is something really worth being frightened of.
  • When a housing bubble pops, first-time buyers with large mortgages are really screwed. Leverage is great when assets are rising, but a decline of even five percent can quickly wipe out a young family's nest egg. A drop of 10 or 20 per cent leaves many homeowners tens of thousands in the hole. Even homeowners without mortgages feel poorer – the so-called inverse wealth effect.
  • According to the IMF, when that happens, spending dries up for five years, and stays flat for years after.
  • Despite deep fears of their own, banks are still crazy to lend. Just as Hertz makes its money by renting cars, banks make money by renting money. They just can't help themselves.
  • Low interest rates held down artificially by central banks in an attempt to jump-start the economy make the math for borrowing to buy look good, for now at least.
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    This article warns Canadian citizens of a housing bubble and that we should not listen to the real estate industry and finance minister as their claims are very biased. The author of this article says that although we may not be in a housing bubble at the moment, we will be if house prices continue to rise, and this is why we should be fearful.
sheba birhanu

What happens when Canada's housing bubble pops? - Econowatch - Macleans.ca - 1 views

  • The real price of Canadian homes has increased by 85 per cent on average since 1998. Prices stagnated in 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, but they were back on the rise again as soon as 2009, when they grew by nearly 20 per cent
  • the debt burden of Canadian families stands at 153 per cent of their disposable income
  • Canadian market is overvalued by over 70 per cent
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  • our housing market is afflicted by “overvaluation, speculation and over supply.
  • 2012 is going to be the year when housing prices start heading south
  • subprime mortgages are virtually non-existent in Canada, and government guarantees on mortgage insurance act as a buffer protecting the banking sector from housing market downturns. A whopping 75 per cent of mortgages in Canada are fully insured by Ottawa
  • prices nationwide will slip by five per cent this year in the best-case scenario. A spike in unemployment could trigger a 10 per cent price drop
  • Secondly, even in areas where there is a bubble, not all sectors of the market are equally inflated
  • condo prices have already declined 15 per cent
  • Canada’s pop won’t bring down the entire financial system
  • “We watch the housing market carefully and we are prepared to intervene if necessary,” he said.
  • Last week Finance Minister Jim Flaherty hinted he is also worried about housing:
  • hough job creation is softening in Canada, there’s little reason to believe joblessness will rise to America’s level.
  • Even economist Nouriel Roubini–famously dubbed Dr. Doom for accurately predicting the great recession–doesn’t think Canada is headed for disaster. He predicts a 10-per cent correction, but not a U.S. style meltdown.
  • The government already cut the maximum length on federally insured mortgages from 35 to 30 years in early 2011,
    • sheba birhanu
       
      Flaherty responded to further changes in the housing market - developed concern.
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    This article includes charts and graphs.
Madelyn Au

Bubble Trouble: The Doomsday Scenario - 0 views

shared by Madelyn Au on 17 May 12 - No Cached
  • A housing market correction will put extreme pressure on those of us who are barely keeping up with debt.
  • Property supply will go through the roof, and anyone who can’t carry mortgage payments will be forced to sell low or risk foreclosure.
  • When interest rates fell to 75-year lows in April 2009, the sensible thing would have been to pay off loans. Instead, we borrowed more
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  • for every $1 in disposable income Canadians have, we have $1.47 in cold and unforgiving debt. Much of that debt is mortgage debt.
  • In Toronto, the median house price of $373,000 is 5.4 times that of the median household income
  • The doom-and-gloomers argue that it’s naive to believe measures like the new CMHC rules will save us from flippers, and that deflation is inevitable.
  • “Home ownership rates, mortgage debt ratios and many home price valuation metrics in Canada have reached the same stretched levels the U.S. did back in 2005 and 2006,”
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    -Statistics on Canadian houshold income & mortgage debt
sheba birhanu

No evidence of housing bubble: Flaherty | News | Financial Post - 4 views

  • Canada as a whole does not face a housing bubble that requires government action, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Wednesday
  • warned Canadians not to take on so much debt that they will not be able to service it when interest rates rise.
  • Canada as a whole does not face a housing bubble that requires government action, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Wednesday.
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  • We have seen in the past year some softening in the Canadian housing market, in part due to the tightening of the insured mortgage market rules that we did earlier this year… That’s an appropriate result from that tightening.”
  • “It will take clear evidence of a bubble in the housing market in Canada, which we have not seen.
  • government might need to consider further measures to prevent households from taking on too much debt
  • consideration may need to be given to additional prudential measures to prevent a further buildup in household debt,
  • average price of detached one- and two-story homes in Vancouver has risen by about 17% in the past year to more than $1-million
  • Home resale prices for Canada as a whole have risen between 5.7% and 7.8%
  • If we saw dramatic surges in prices in some part of the country
  • but overall across the country there’s been some moderation
  • The government has tightened mortgage rules three times since 2008, most recently in January.
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    This article contains Finance Minister Flaherty: - denying the evidence and existence of the housing bubble - saying the current state of the housing market s because of the tightening of insured mortgage market rules
sheba birhanu

Canadian banks not immune to housing bubble: OSFI official | Mortgages | Personal Finan... - 0 views

  • Previous failures of Canadian financial institutions were due to bad real estate lending and sharp falls in housing prices, and these can happen again,
  • Canada’s banks, ranked the soundest on the planet by the World Economic Forum, aren’t immune to collapses triggered by falling housing prices, according to the government official implementing new mortgage rules.
  • Canada is not immune,”
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  • “Just because nothing happened in Canada in 2008 (a U.S.-centered crisis), does not mean that Canada is not vulnerable to a housing correction now.”
  • Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has tightened mortgage rules three times and put the federal housing agency’s books under regulator oversight, while Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney has repeatedly warned household debt is the economy’s biggest domestic risk.
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    Canada's banks, ranked the soundest on the planet by the World Economic Forum, aren't immune to collapses triggered by falling housing prices, according to the government official implementing new mortgage rules.
Christie Park

Mortgage regs keep Canadian housing from bubbling up: BMO chief economist | iPolitics - 0 views

  • We have no subprime lending to speak of. It’s negligible
  • Canadians with no income, assets, and documentation weren’t allowed to get no money down mortgages on overpriced houses, the housing market hasn’t and won’t suffer the same consequences
  • Introduced by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty last January, the changes reduced the maximum amortization to 30 years from 35 years for a government-insured mortgage, reduced to 85 per cent the amount Canadians could borrow against their home equity, and ended government-insured home equity lines of credit.
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  • Cooper said the rules prevented an increase of the six to eight per cent of Canadians with 40-year amortizations and very little money down, who may find themselves “inordinately stretched as interest rates trend higher.”
  • Cooper said these extraordinary prices in Vancouver and Toronto, which increased by 20 per cent over the course of 2010 and 2011, were partly boosted by substantial inflows of foreign capital — a great deal of which was invested in condominiums.
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    This article presents Dr. Sherry Cooper's (BMO Financial Group's chief economist) opinion of why we are not in a housing bubble.
Christie Park

Could a U.S.-style collapse happen here? - Yahoo! Finance Canada - 0 views

  • the average price of a detached home in Canada has doubled since 2000, and in September was sitting at $331,000
  • the Canadian household debt-to-income ratio hit a record high of 148.1 per cent in the third quarter. That is slightly above the 147.2 per cent debt ratio seen in the U.S.
  • household debt has jumped by seven per cent since the recession bottomed out, compared to a fall of 3.5 per cent in the U.S. And most of the household debt in Canada can be attributed to mortgages, which have grown from $421 billion in 2000 to more than $1 trillion today, a 137 per cent increase in 10 years.
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  • Canadian home prices relative to income are 15 per cent above the post-1970 average. This may not sound all that bad until you compare it to the U.S. and the fact that before prices there began to tumble, relative to income they were 11 per cent above the long-term average
  • Canada has some of the most expensive real estate in the world
  • buy/rent ratio was about 1.85x
  • typical house eats up 41 per cent of median income today, compared to 49 per cent in Toronto, and 73 per cent in Vancouver
  • The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has insured $773 billion in mortgages and loans, while holding only 1.2 per cent in equity.
Christie Park

Housing bubble a danger to economy, TD says - Ottawa - CBC News - 0 views

  • Overvalued housing markets in several Canadian cities and high household debt poses a "clear and present danger" to Canada’s economy
  • The report flags Vancouver as the market with the greatest risk of a housing price correction, because of an influx of foreign buyers, likely in the order of 10 to 15 per cent.
  • overbuilding in the condo market
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  • Household debt growth over the past decade has been fuelled not as much by credit card borrowing, he said, but largely by loans secured by real estate, in particular home equity lines of credit.
  • The ratio of debt-to-personal disposable income, which is now above 150 per cent, Alexander predicted, is likely to reach by late next year the 160 per cent peak experienced in the U.S. and the U.K. before their real estate corrections occurred.
  • The report proposes several options for heading off further growth in household debt. One is to shorten the maximum amortization on mortgages from 30 years to 25.
  • A second possibility is to impose a sort of stress test on borrowers in order to qualify for a mortgage.
  • And another option would be to require applicants for home equity lines of credit to demonstrate their ability to pay it off in 20 years. Finally, the minimum down payment for a mortgage could be raised from five per cent to seven.
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    This article explains how the overvalued housing markets are dangerous to the Canadian economy, as well, a few options to stall the growth in household debt.
sheba birhanu

Is the Canadian housing market a big bubble ready to burst? Or is it steady as she goes... - 0 views

  • Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has warned that Canadians are taking on too much debt against the value of their homes, and that could spell trouble.
  • latest report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is dismissing those fears, saying there's no 'clear evidence' of a real estate bubble.
  • home sales have dropped
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  • "There's clearly a slowing down in the market," said Tsur Somerville from the UBC Sauder School of Business. "You see an increase in the number of listings, drop in sales, all things that create less pressure in the marketplace."
  • According to the latest numbers from the real estate board of Greater Vancouver, home sales are down 19 per cent compared to this time last year.
  • "The comparison to last year was heavily influenced by the change in the federal government's mortgage insurance criteria, which pulled forward a large number of sales into early 2011" said Helmut Pastrick, Central 1 Credit Union Cheif Economist.
  • despite a 19 per cent slowdown in sales, home price indexes show almost a four per cent increase in the average price of a home.
  • The message to buyers - the economy is in reasonable shape, there's a lot supply out there, and interest rates are still low.
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    Some more evidence and statistics on why we are not in a housing bubble.
Christie Park

CMHC shrugs off housing 'bubble' talk, defends role in debt financing | FP Street | New... - 0 views

  • Bank of Canada “has indicated that it is likely to remain at 1.0% for 2012,” prompting a strong denial by the central bank itself.
  • Rock-bottom mortgage rates have fueled Canada’s housing boom, but they have also raised concerns over record-high household debt as many consumers take advantage of cheap lending costs while they last. Higher rates could push many households beyond their limit and out of the market, and that could lead to a drop in prices, especially in the over-development condo sector.
  • On Tuesday, CMHC also reported housing starts jumped 14% in April, mainly for multi-unit construction,
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  • The report also highlighted the important role CMHC plays in the housing market, which it said accounted for 20%, or $346-billion, of Canada’s gross domestic product last year.
  • The corporation, created in 1946, currently has a $600-billion loan limit, which the government increased three years ago from $450-billion. The federal government guarantees the full value of mortgages insured by CMHC and 90% of loans insured by private firms.
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    This article presents information from CMHC's annual report.
Christie Park

Warning: Is Ontario Experiencing a Housing Bubble? - 0 views

  • If we examine the 1989 bubble, there are clear indicators that speculators relied on short-term gains as a primary income source, which resulted in artificial and unsustainable rising home values
  • In today’s Ontario real estate market, the environment is different; wages are increasing, immigration is up, speculators are few, employment is rebounding, and lending regulations are strict.
  • Fixed mortgage rates have been dropping in recent weeks (3.69%) which will also help sustain a healthy fall real estate market. Variable rate mortgages (2.05%) still work out mathematically better even if rates gradually rise over the next 5 years.
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    In this blog, the author states his opinion that he does not see a housing bubble on the horizon. He supports his argument by comparing regulations in Canada and the United States and a few factors as to why.
sheba birhanu

No housing crash coming in Canada, BMO says - Business - CBC News - 1 views

  • "Expect the housing boom to cool rather than crash,"
  • unlikely to continue unless mortgage rates drop much further, neither is it likely to bust.
  • home values are indeed rising at a faster pace than they used to, but the signs are pointing to a soft landing where prices stabilize — not a hard correction where prices drop quickly by 20 per cent or more.
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  • more like a balloon than a bubble,
  • demographic factors, consistently low interest rates, low construction costs and an influx of foreign buyers make it likely that no such pin will materialize for the foreseeable future
  • prices have grown more than twice as fast as family incomes since 2001
  • home prices are 4.9 times higher than the average household income. A decade ago, that ratio was at 3.2
  • Vancouver's ratio currently sits at 10 times higher than average household income, Toronto's is at 6.7, Montreal's is at 4.5 while Halifax is at 3.8.
  • national average price was $347,801 in December, a 0.9 per cent increase over the previous 12 months
  • lowest level of growth since October 2010 and well below inflation, a possible sign that the market is already cooling.
  • would all take the air out of Canada's housing market
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    This article has a great comparison between the changes in prices of homes and the changes in incomes.
Christie Park

Housing bubble: listening for the pop - Colby Cosh - Macleans.ca - 1 views

  • In the U.S., the per-capita value of the housing stock got wayyyy above trend in 2003 and 2004, climbing by 22.5% in just two years. Canada never did get that out-of-control over any short period of time, by this measure. At the same time, though, we did have five consecutive years (2003-07) of 7%+ growth. The U.S. has more or less reverted to trend, and we haven’t: we’ve merely cinched in the growth rate (working against the allure of cheap mortgages as best we can by means of lending policy) and hoped that no radical adjustment will be necessary. A few years of slow growth would be excellent news for us, given that the alternative might be the more-or-less wholesale destruction of entire conurbations that has been happening in the U.S.
  • Canada may have some local bubbles
  • British Columbia, for example, you find that the Olympics combined with the general climate of insanity from 2003-06 to drive 9%+ growth for the whole province every year, with a peak of 11.3% in 2006.
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    Graph of Canadian Housing Bubble
sheba birhanu

Carney warns of potential housing market trouble - Canada - CBC News - 0 views

  • stopped short of saying a housing bubble exists in Canada.
  • condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver as being particularly unsustainable.
  • issues particularly in some parts of the country, in the condo market,
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  • The average home price in Vancouver finally saw a decline in March at $730,998 from $823,749
  • average home price in Toronto rose again in March at $503,998 from $499,354
  • t's the decisions of the individuals who take out the loans, and Canadians are a smart and prudent people
  • onus isn't just on individual Canadians, but also on the banks and institutions that must make some wise decisions and not lend to people who clearly can't pay the money back
  • as well as the federal government for tightening mortgage lending rules.
  • Carney repeated warnings against Canadians taking on too much household debt,
  • Carney said interest rates "are going to go higher,"
  • Canadians should make sure they can carry that debt when interest rates "are at a more normal level."
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    This article contains preventative measures from Bank of Canada Governor Carney and evidence that we are headed for a housing bubble.
sheba birhanu

Canadian housing bubble fears overblown, experts say | FP Street | News | Financial Post - 0 views

  • said the housing market is not in a bubble,
  • The annual pace of home starts rose 14% to 244,900
  • Canadian housing starts rose to the highest since September 2007 last month
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  • A residential real-estate boom in the world’s 10th-largest economy has prompted senior policy makers such as Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty to warn that Canadians may be taking on too much debt.
  • Mr. Carney told lawmakers April 24 that high levels of household debt remain the greatest domestic risk to Canada’s economy.
  • warned Canadian families to exercise “caution” with their debt levels.
  • Mr. Carney has kept his key lending rate unchanged at 1% since September 2010 in the longest pause since the 1950s.
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    The head of Canada's biggest bank and one of the country's leading developers said the housing market is not in a bubble, even as one economist said Toronto is caught in a "condo craze." Canadian housing starts rose to the highest since September 2007 last month, led by multiple-unit projects, Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp.
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    This article includes Michael Carney further warning Canadians to be cautious of their debt levels.
Christie Park

Taming Toronto's housing bubble requires ban of foreign buying | Diane Francis | Financ... - 0 views

  • Nearly three times’ more condo high-rises are being built in Toronto than are being built in New York City and nearly seven times’ more than in Chicago, according to Bloomberg News.
  • Conventional wisdom is that this is the market at work. This is not the market at work. This is manipulation of a government system of open-ended mortgage insurance that is poorly supervised.
  • What is going on here is a deluge of hot money from abroad that is creating an artificial and potentially dangerous real estate bubble.
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  • This is what is happening. For example, a modest bungalow in Toronto sold last month for $1,180,800, $400,000 more than the asking price of $759,000. Canadian bidders were furious and deserved to be. The winning bid was made by a university student whose parents have a business in the United States but who live in China.
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    This article says that foreign investments are creating an artificial housing bubble.
Madelyn Au

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-001-x/2011002/article/11429-eng.htm - 0 views

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    Statistics on Housing Debt to Equity Ratio & The distribution of mortgage debt in Canada
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