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Christie Park

Taming Toronto's housing bubble requires ban of foreign buying | Diane Francis | Financ... - 0 views

  • Nearly three times’ more condo high-rises are being built in Toronto than are being built in New York City and nearly seven times’ more than in Chicago, according to Bloomberg News.
  • Conventional wisdom is that this is the market at work. This is not the market at work. This is manipulation of a government system of open-ended mortgage insurance that is poorly supervised.
  • What is going on here is a deluge of hot money from abroad that is creating an artificial and potentially dangerous real estate bubble.
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  • This is what is happening. For example, a modest bungalow in Toronto sold last month for $1,180,800, $400,000 more than the asking price of $759,000. Canadian bidders were furious and deserved to be. The winning bid was made by a university student whose parents have a business in the United States but who live in China.
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    This article says that foreign investments are creating an artificial housing bubble.
sheba birhanu

What happens when Canada's housing bubble pops? - Econowatch - Macleans.ca - 1 views

  • The real price of Canadian homes has increased by 85 per cent on average since 1998. Prices stagnated in 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, but they were back on the rise again as soon as 2009, when they grew by nearly 20 per cent
  • the debt burden of Canadian families stands at 153 per cent of their disposable income
  • Canadian market is overvalued by over 70 per cent
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  • our housing market is afflicted by “overvaluation, speculation and over supply.
  • 2012 is going to be the year when housing prices start heading south
  • subprime mortgages are virtually non-existent in Canada, and government guarantees on mortgage insurance act as a buffer protecting the banking sector from housing market downturns. A whopping 75 per cent of mortgages in Canada are fully insured by Ottawa
  • prices nationwide will slip by five per cent this year in the best-case scenario. A spike in unemployment could trigger a 10 per cent price drop
  • Secondly, even in areas where there is a bubble, not all sectors of the market are equally inflated
  • condo prices have already declined 15 per cent
  • Canada’s pop won’t bring down the entire financial system
  • “We watch the housing market carefully and we are prepared to intervene if necessary,” he said.
  • Last week Finance Minister Jim Flaherty hinted he is also worried about housing:
  • hough job creation is softening in Canada, there’s little reason to believe joblessness will rise to America’s level.
  • Even economist Nouriel Roubini–famously dubbed Dr. Doom for accurately predicting the great recession–doesn’t think Canada is headed for disaster. He predicts a 10-per cent correction, but not a U.S. style meltdown.
  • The government already cut the maximum length on federally insured mortgages from 35 to 30 years in early 2011,
    • sheba birhanu
       
      Flaherty responded to further changes in the housing market - developed concern.
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    This article includes charts and graphs.
sheba birhanu

Carney warns of potential housing market trouble - Canada - CBC News - 0 views

  • stopped short of saying a housing bubble exists in Canada.
  • condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver as being particularly unsustainable.
  • issues particularly in some parts of the country, in the condo market,
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  • The average home price in Vancouver finally saw a decline in March at $730,998 from $823,749
  • average home price in Toronto rose again in March at $503,998 from $499,354
  • t's the decisions of the individuals who take out the loans, and Canadians are a smart and prudent people
  • onus isn't just on individual Canadians, but also on the banks and institutions that must make some wise decisions and not lend to people who clearly can't pay the money back
  • as well as the federal government for tightening mortgage lending rules.
  • Carney repeated warnings against Canadians taking on too much household debt,
  • Carney said interest rates "are going to go higher,"
  • Canadians should make sure they can carry that debt when interest rates "are at a more normal level."
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    This article contains preventative measures from Bank of Canada Governor Carney and evidence that we are headed for a housing bubble.
Christie Park

Be Very Afraid Of The Canadian Housing Bubble - 0 views

  • I want people who are considering buying a house in Canada to be the most frightened. People who just bought a house also have every right to be nervous. But even if you don't have a stake in the property market, I would like you, too, to be fearful of a bubble in Canadian property.
  • Unlike in the United States, it is very hard for Canadians to walk away from their mortgage responsibilities. Mortgage insurance protects your bank, not you. Here, a default is not a get out of jail free card
  • In Canada, mortgage interest cannot be deducted from your taxes. Instead, we only benefit by getting tax-free capital gains after you sell.
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  • And that is why I want to spread fear. Because though we may not be in a bubble now, if we keep this up, we are going to be. And if a bubble pops, that is something really worth being frightened of.
  • When a housing bubble pops, first-time buyers with large mortgages are really screwed. Leverage is great when assets are rising, but a decline of even five percent can quickly wipe out a young family's nest egg. A drop of 10 or 20 per cent leaves many homeowners tens of thousands in the hole. Even homeowners without mortgages feel poorer – the so-called inverse wealth effect.
  • According to the IMF, when that happens, spending dries up for five years, and stays flat for years after.
  • Despite deep fears of their own, banks are still crazy to lend. Just as Hertz makes its money by renting cars, banks make money by renting money. They just can't help themselves.
  • Low interest rates held down artificially by central banks in an attempt to jump-start the economy make the math for borrowing to buy look good, for now at least.
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    This article warns Canadian citizens of a housing bubble and that we should not listen to the real estate industry and finance minister as their claims are very biased. The author of this article says that although we may not be in a housing bubble at the moment, we will be if house prices continue to rise, and this is why we should be fearful.
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