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Ed Webb

Why Bobi Wine is likely to fail if he takes power in Uganda | Africa | Al Jazeera - 0 views

  • Ugandans have seen the rise and fall of challengers to President Museveni over the past three decades but many seem to sense that something is different this time. It seems the 36-year-old musician-turned-MP has managed to get under Museveni's skin, rattling and unsettling him in a way that no politician ever has.
  • Museveni has also given two lengthy speeches to defend his legacy, promising to fix the country's intractable problems but disillusioned Ugandans, mostly young Bobi Wine "diehards", see him as an old man out of touch with reality, obsessed with past glories and clueless about present-day challenges. They even nicknamed Bosco, a technologically challenged character in a popular ad released by a local mobile operator.
  • it would be foolhardy to start writing Museveni's political obituary now. Despite his many weaknesses, he has managed to fortify himself in power in a way that gives him absolute control and unquestionable loyalty, which Bobi Wine will most likely fail to break
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  • One of the stipulations of the act provide for 10 acting army officers being elected to parliament by an army council, after being nominated first by Museveni himself. Apart from the obvious problems with the army having a say in legislative affairs, its presence has also invited direct meddling in deliberations, including on occasion the storming of the parliament by security forces
  • role the military plays in Ugandan politics
  • Over the past three decades, the Ugandan president has managed to militarise the state by giving government and legislative positions to top military officers. In 2005 he introduced the Uganda Peoples' Defence Forces Act of 2005 giving vast powers to the army
  • The act has also enabled the army to try civilians in military courts. Bobi Wine himself appeared before a military court in  August after being charged with illegal possession of weapons
  • his son is a top-ranking general who was initially put in charge of the elite Presidential Guard Unit and then appointed Senior Presidential Advisor on Special Operations. There have been some speculations that by promoting him within the army ranks, Museveni is grooming his son to succeed him.
  • even if he succeeds, the generals will remain and they will likely do anything to keep the political and economic power they currently enjoy. They are likely to sabotage any effort to introduce major economic and political reforms that could take away their privileges
  • Museveni himself has been threatened by various powerful officers within the army. It is for this reason that he has conducted purges within its ranks, despite the risk of mutiny. So far, he has managed to silence his challengers
  • The events of 2011-2013 in Egypt are a good illustration of what happens when a civilian political force tries to challenge the power of a politicised military. In 2011, the Egyptian army stepped back and let the popular revolt topple President Hosni Mubarak, whose sons were perceived as a threat by the military's top brass. Then the army also let Mohamed Morsi take the presidency and form a government; it even let him rule for about a year. But Egypt's military leadership blocked all efforts of his political group, the Muslim Brotherhood, to dismantle its power and eventually brought him down with a coup.
  • While the parallel between the Egyptian and the Ugandan armies is not a full one - the former being much more powerful than the latter - it is not a stretch to say that discontent military officers could serve as spoilers to whoever comes to power after Museveni, be it Bobi Wine or someone else
  • expectations for any post-Museveni leadership will be astronomically high (the way they were in Egypt) and his successor will risk losing whatever political capital he or she has by trying to fix decades of purposeful weakening of civilian institutions
sarahaill

U.N. says tide of refugees from South Sudan rising fast - 0 views

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    KAMPALA Some 1.5 million refugees have fled fighting and famine in South Sudan to neighboring countries, half of them to Uganda, and thousands more are leaving daily, the U.N. refugee agency said on Thursday. Political rivalry between South Sudan's President Salva Kiir and his former deputy Riek Machar ignited a civil war in 2013 that has often followed ethnic lines.
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