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The current system, researchers say, financially encourages doctors to do more procedures and is one of the reasons health costs have escalated. The health law required Medicare to gradually factor in quality into payments for hospitals, nursing homes, physicians and most medical providers.

Medicare had already decided that large physician groups -- those with 100 or more doctors, nurses, social workers or other health professionals -- will gain or lose as much as 1 percent of their pay starting in 2015. Those incentives would double to 2 percent the following year under draft regulations Medicare released this month. The proposal also would phase mid-sized physicians groups—those with between 10 and 99 health professionals—into the program in 2016 instead of in 2017. While they would be eligible for bonuses up to 2 percent, they would be shielded from any penalties for that first year.

Thirty percent of companies that provide coverage to Medicare-eligible retirees (age 65 and over) already have moved to exchanges, according to an Aon Hewitt survey of more than 1,230 employers released last month.

For Medicare-eligible retirees, employer benefits are supplemental. Retirees who use traditional fee-for-service Medicare might be offered a Part D (prescription drug) benefit, and a subsidized Medigap plan, which plugs coverage gaps in fee-for-service Medicare. Retirees using Medicare Advantage (all-in-one managed care plans) receive a subsidy toward buying those plans.

oving to exchanges also can help employers avoid the looming risk of the so-called Cadillac tax on rich-benefit insurance plans.

The relatively small share of PDP enrollees who switched plans at some point between 2006 and 2010 were more likely than those who did not switch to end up in a plan that lowered their premiums.  Nearly half (46 percent) of enrollees who switched plans saw their premiums fall by at least 5 percent the following year, compared to 8 percent of those who did not switch plans.  But those who switched plans were only slightly more likely than those who did not switch to face lower out-of-pocket costs for drugs during the year

Unless trends change significantly in 2013, the key determinants of whether a particular physician will be able to avoid a Medicare pay-for-reporting penalty are his or her specialty and the state in which the doctor practices

Once we understand the rules, we are pretty good at playing by them,” said Lee Hilborne, MD, a professor of pathology and laboratory medicine at the David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles.

Medicare covers all those treatment options. By law, it can't consider price when making coverage decisions. Nor can it insist that a new technology be significantly better than existing ones or encourage doctors or patients to seek less-costly alternatives. And once Medicare starts writing checks, private health plans generally follow, distorting the usual market mechanisms, says Arthur Kellermann, a physician and senior policy analyst at Rand Corp.

Another big driver of health-care costs is technology. In almost every other industry, innovation generally makes things more efficient and less costly. But in health care, it often brings higher costs with little added value.