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Haydn W

Inflation Forecast 2014-2014: Continued Mild Price Increases - 1 views

www.forbes.com/...continued-mild-price-increases

Forbes Inflation Unemployment Phillips Curve Trade-off

shared by Haydn W on 03 May 14 - No Cached
  • Inflation is likely to remain mild in the next two years, but first a caution: none of the inflation forecasting models is doing a good job these days.
  • the Phillips Curve was our primary way of looking at inflation. William Phillips found an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment over the period 1861-1957. This simple approach was used here in the United States in the 1960s and 70s.
  • With lower unemployment you would expect greater inflation. However, the Phillips Curve does not explain why inflation didn’t go down much when our unemployment rate was high a few years ago.
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • Milton Friedman said “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon . . . .” The relationship was solid for a long time, though financial changes in the 1990s made the theory harder to apply.
  • Unfortunately, the expectations-augmented Phillips Curve has not worked well in recent years. One study found that the predicted inflation for 2010 was negative 4.3 percent, while actual inflation was still positive.
  • Different theories tell us that the actual dynamics by which inflation changes are influenced not only by unemployment but also by inflation expectations.
  • Two different money concepts have been used, the money supply (such as the M2 definition) and the monetary base Recent data for both concepts indicate that inflation should have been much higher in recent years. The fact that inflation has accelerated very little suggests that in the current environment, the money-inflation connection is not very tight.
  • Haydn W on 03 May 14
     
    This article from Forbes is primarily titled to be a forecast about inflation in the coming fiscal year but it also interestingly (and relevant to our studies) discusses the different arguments and criticism surrounding the modelled Phillips Curve. The article also contains an interesting graph that is based on recorded statistics about inflation and unemployment which helps to demonstrate the problems with the Phillips Curve model. 
Pip Dop

U.N. Climate Chief: We're 'Intentionally' Transforming The World Economy - 0 views

nation.foxnews.com/...lly-transforming-world-economy

economic development UN model

shared by Pip Dop on 10 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • Pip Dop on 10 Feb 15
     
    The UN has made the intentional decision to transform the current economic development model, one that has been followed for 150 years, or since the industrial revolution. Particular attention will be attributed to the issue of climate change.
John B

William Easterly: Singing About Fighting Poverty, Slightly Off-Key - WSJ - WSJ - 1 views

online.wsj.com/...ty-slightly-off-key-1412292935

Supply-side

shared by John B on 03 Oct 14 - No Cached
  • The progress against poverty in China is obvious, but whether China's government deserves to be held up as a development model is not so clear. For instance, who gets to decide whether mainland Chinese citizens should be content with improved standards of living and so few protections against the frequent violations of their rights by their own government?
  • Extreme poverty in China has been reduced over the past few decades precisely because Beijing permitted the freedoms of a market economy to infiltrate a communism-blighted society. If the regime's repression now worsens, count on the end of the country's high growth rates.
  • Yet freedom is arguably central: first, as an end that people want for themselves, and, second, as the most well-proven path to escaping poverty. Consider among others North America, most of Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Chile, where the answer to poverty was economic and political freedom.
  • John B on 03 Oct 14
     
    In this article, the author discuss the affects of the actions of the government in China. It is a modern topic today due to the demonstrations being held in Hong Kong. The authors mentions that the statement about entering a democracy, and then pulling back on the decision means that they were on the right track to get the market more free from the government, hence less poverty, but now he thinks it is gonna worsen the economical conditions. A free market has saved many economies, why should China still not give in for the human rights and improve their economy?
Haydn W

What are multinationals doing to champion rights of millions trapped in modern-day slav... - 0 views

www.theguardian.com/...ations-compliance-human-rights

Multinational Corporations The Guardian Fair Trade Slavery

shared by Haydn W on 10 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • What are multinationals doing to champion rights of millions trapped in modern-day slavery?
  • With almost 21 million people working in forced labour conditions in the global economy, companies are being made to clean up their act
  • In a world of complex supply chains, migrant workers, sub-suppliers and a constant squeeze on costs, corporate leaders and their stakeholders are keenly aware of the risk of labour exploitation.
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  • No industry or region is fully insulated from the social deficit which has emerged from the rise of the modern global economy.
  • Given the influence and impact that multinational corporations have, there is significant scope for corporate leaders to champion reform and action in this area.
  • However, the ILO estimates that 44% of those working in forced labour are also victims of trafficking (pdf).
  • The fight to eradicate the scourge of forced and child labour, sometimes referred to as modern-day slavery, has re-emerged as a defining issue in this century
  • The International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that almost 21 million people are currently working in some form of forced labour, with 14.2 million in economic activities such as agriculture, construction, domestic work or manufacturing (pdf).
  • Beginning in California in 2012, following effective campaigning and lobbying to then-governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, mandatory corporate disclosure of a company’s non-financial activities has been on the rise.
  • From US President Obama’s executive order on trafficking and federal procurement, to the UK Modern Slavery Bill’s recent amendment to include supply chain disclosure provisions, to the EU’s adoption of a non-financial reporting directive, compulsory transparency around global corporate practices – including human rights, labour and social impacts and policies – is the latest tool being employed by legislators to place social expectations on corporations.
  • multinational corporations have grown significantly in terms of size, assets, resource control and revenue, not to mention societal influence.
  • This growth has been accompanied by growing expectations by society and government.
  • It is, of course, critical to recognise that the global corporate supply chain can be a force for good.
  • However, with their multiple levels of subcontracting, particularly throughout impoverished regions where labour laws are non-existent or not enforced, global labour and product supply chains also provide fertile ground for inhumane practices and working conditions.
  • The United States Department of Labor, for example, has produced a list of 136 goods produced in 74 countries using forced labour, child labour, or both.
  • Many leading companies already understand that their strategies shape the lives of millions. The most forward-thinking believe that business is an integral pillar of society and recognise that the people they rely on at home and abroad are central to building sustainable and lasting businesses.
  • And since mandatory disclosure requires all multinationals to take notice and action rather than just the industry leaders, this ultimately helps level the playing field.
  • Some believe supply chain transparency laws do not constitute any real change from the prevailing corporate-driven model for CSR, while others oppose increased regulation and oversight as unnecessary state intervention, believing that industry led efforts have the best chance of success.
  • it is a combination of corporate leadership and regulation in this area which will help ensure all market participants rise to acceptable standards.
  • The trend away from voluntary reports towards mandatory social reporting for global corporations is here to stay and may represent a first step towards increased legislative requirements
  • No matter where one believes the solutions lie, the ultimate goal is a global economy free from forced labour, trafficking and other abuses. For the millions of victims who go out into the world seeking work in the hope of building better lives, we must commit to seeking the best path forward.
Haydn W

Will ′Modinomics′ help boost India′s development? | Asia | DW.DE | 12.01.2015 - 1 views

www.dw.de/...a-18185326

Economic Development India DW

shared by Haydn W on 10 Feb 15 - No Cached
  • Will 'Modinomics' help boost India's development?
  • In a bid to transform India's economy, PM Narendra Modi has pledged unlimited reforms at a summit in Gujarat.
  • Indian PM Narendra Modi pledged to slash red tape and banish India's reputation as a hard place to do business. Modi spoke of his plans to lift hundreds of millions of Indians out of poverty, including the opening of more than 100 million bank accounts
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  • More than six months into Modi's rule, India's economic growth remains sluggish, with GDP expanding at an average of 5.2 percent in the first three quarters of 2014.
  • Kerry told the summit the United States looks forward to stronger trade and diplomatic ties with India. Kerry's visit to the South Asian nation, his second in six months, comes just a few weeks before US President Barack Obama is due in New Delhi for talks.
  • Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist at the analytics firm IHS, says that while replicating the Gujarat model across a large and politically disparate country such as India will be difficult, PM Modi's management style is likely to accelerate economic development in significant parts of India, particularly in states where his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) holds state government.
  • Haydn W on 10 Feb 15
     
    This interview details the style of policy making to promote growth initated by Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister. Economic growth and development is arguably the most important area of policy in India and will be a huge focal point of any international discussions centered around the region.
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