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Contents contributed and discussions participated by kurt stavenhagen

kurt stavenhagen

Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds | The New Yorker - 1 views

  • toilets, zippers, and cylinder locks. They were then asked to write detailed, step-by-step explanations of how the devices work, and to rate their understanding again. Apparently, the effort revealed to the students their own ignorance, because their self-assessments dropped
  • illusion of explanatory depth,
  • People believe that they know way more than they actually do
  • ...23 more annotations...
  • no sharp boundary between one person’s ideas and knowledge” and “those of other members” of the group
  • favor (or oppose) an immigration ban without knowing what I’m talking about
  • The farther off base they were about the geography, the more likely they were to favor military intervention
  • As a rule, strong feelings about issues do not emerge from deep understanding,”
  • If your position on, say, the Affordable Care Act is baseless and I rely on it, then my opinion is also baseless.
  • much detail as they could, the impacts of implementing each one. Most people at this point ran into trouble
  • pent less time pontificating and more trying to work through the implications of policy proposals, we’d realize how clueless we are and moderate our views.
  • science is as a system that corrects for people’s natural inclinations
  • by researchers who have no motive to confirm them. And this, it could be argued, is why the system has proved so successful.
  • field may be dominated by squabbles, but, in the end, the methodology prevails
  • experience genuine pleasure—a rush of dopamine—when processing information that supports their beliefs. “It feels good to ‘stick to our guns’ even if we are wrong,
  • At this point, something curious happened. The students in the high-score group said that they thought they had, in fact, done quite well—significantly better than the average student—even though, as they’d just been told, they had zero grounds for believing this
  • Once formed,” the researchers observed dryly, “impressions are remarkably perseverant.”
  • Even after the evidence “for their beliefs has been totally refuted, people fail to make appropriate revisions in those beliefs,” the researchers noted
  • that reasonable-seeming people are often totally irrational
  • “confirmation bias,” the tendency people have to embrace information that supports their beliefs and reject information that contradicts them.
  • Those who’d started out pro-capital punishment were now even more in favor of it; those who’d opposed it were even more hostile.
  • Such a mouse, “bent on confirming its belief that there are no cats around,” would soon be dinner.
  • we’re quite adept at spotting the weaknesses. Almost invariably, the positions we’re blind about are our own.
  • ewer than fifteen per cent changed their minds in step two.
  • getting screwed by the other members of our group.
  • There was little advantage in reasoning clearly, while much was to be gained from winning arguments
  • roviding people with accurate information doesn’t seem to help; they simply discount it. Appealing to their emotions may work better, but doing so is obviously antithetical to the goal of promoting sound science. “The challenge that remains,” they write toward the end of their book, “is to figure out how to address the tendencies that lead to false scientific belief.
kurt stavenhagen

Did that New York magazine climate story freak you out? Good. - Vox - 0 views

  • He simply says that there’s lots of carbon buried in the permafrost and, as the ice melts, the carbon is released as methane, which is 86 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (on a short- to mid-term basis). That is true.
    • kurt stavenhagen
       
      Partly correct appraisal here. The carbon is not likely to be released as methane!
  • One set of satellite data was updated, it falls in line with the rest, and warming is happening roughly on the schedule models predicted (which, as Mann notes, is plenty fast enough).
  • So that’s one close call and one error, which together constitute, by my rough calculation, about a fiftieth of the factual claims in WW’s piece. The rest, as far as I know, stands.
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  • But Wallace-Wells’ piece was not about that. It was about what will happen if we keep on as-is.
  • He’s merely describing what could happen if we cease to act, which no one wants ... except one of the two major political parties in the world’s most powerful country, including the man in charge of the executive branch and military
    • kurt stavenhagen
       
      Kairotic here? Given the situation politically, does Wallace-Wells have more latitude to explore the worst case scenario?
    • kurt stavenhagen
       
      Intriguing shift to the social dynamics. 
  • There’s been a sort of general failure of imagination that means we’ve accepted what’s the median-likely outcome as a worst-case scenario. As a result we’ve been a bit handicapped in thinking about how much action needs to be taken.
  • Things stay roughly as they are” is just as improbable as the worst-case scenario he lays out, yet I’d venture to guess it is believed (or more importantly, envisioned) by vastly more people. Part of that is because envisioning the best-case scenario is easy — it looks just like now! — while envisioning the worst-case scenario is very difficult. It’s especially difficult because the worst-case scenario is treated by the very few people who understand it as a kind of forbidden occult knowledge to which ordinary people cannot survive exposure. Nobody can talk about it without getting scolded by the hope police.
  • it’s just weird for journalists and analysts to worry about overly alarming people regarding the biggest, scariest problem humanity has ever faced.
  • When there are important things that people don’t understand, journalists should explain those things. Attempts at dime-store social psychology are unlikely to lead to better journalism.
  • nobody really knows anything. Even if there are accurate statements about how people in general respond to messages in general, they won’t tell you much about how you ought to communicate with the people you want to reach.
    • kurt stavenhagen
       
      Yes! Applied rhetoric: no longer do general bromides apply; context and timing is everthing; if as the saying goes all politics are ultimately local, then all rhetoric is ultimately local.
  • Similarly, the dry, hedged language of science is not the only serious or legitimate way to communicate, though climate scientists often mistake it as such.
  • consciously pitched to reach and inspire some mythical average reader (as encountered in social science studies filtered through popular journalism) tends to be flavorless and dull.
  • engineering
  • a climate system that will now go to war with us for many centuries, perhaps until it destroys us.
  • it is another thing entirely to consider the possibility that we have only provoked it
  • I just try to communicate like I would like to be communicated to, frankly and clearly, as though I’m talking to a friend in a bar.
kurt stavenhagen

When Will Climate Change Make the Earth Too Hot For Humans? - 0 views

    • kurt stavenhagen
       
      rhetoric!
    • kurt stavenhagen
       
      Does plausibility work for this topic? Sharing of fear that paralyzes?
  • set of propositions that animated the project from the start: that the public does not appreciate the scale of climate risk; that this is in part because we have not spent enough time contemplating the scarier half of the distribution curve of possibilities, especially its brutal long tail, or the risks beyond sea-level rise; that there is journalistic and public-interest value in spreading the news from the scientific community, no matter how unnerving it may be; and that, when it comes to the challenge of climate change, public complacency is a far, far bigger problem than widespread fatalism — that many, many more people are not scared enough than are already “too scared.” In fact, I don’t even understand what “too scared” would mean. The science says climate change threatens nearly every aspect of human life on this planet, and that inaction will hasten the problems. In that context, I don’t think it’s a slur to call an article, or its writer, alarmist. I’ll accept that characterization. We should be alarmed.
  • But no matter how well-informed you are, you are surely not alarmed enough
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  • But no matter how well-informed you are, you are surely not alarmed enough
kurt stavenhagen

Comments on Why they're wrong | The Economist - 0 views

  • There have been some real gains in middle-class jobs by giving tax incentives to multinationals to set up headquarters here, but those can go quite quickly if somebody gives a better incentive somewhere else. This is the situation at the peak, when Panama has absorbed tons of capital from Venezuela's collapse, and just finished going through a gigantic real-estate boom. Things are starting to go downhill now - and of course, that means going back to the status quo which is considerably more precarious to the original one before the boom. Basically, there were beneficiaries, but in the end, everything "inneficient" (read: not owned by multinationals or national champions) got axed. In conclusion, the world is being enslaved by multinationals and whoever benefits is at their mercy.
    • kurt stavenhagen
       
      Seems truth; multinationals rule.
  • It is hard to imagine, 173 years later, a leading Western newspaper discussing globalization without a mere mention of its ecological implications. Are humans better off in the short term pillaging every last acre of rainforest and sapping every last drip of oil from under the earth rather than living more modestly and sustainably? YES. Is that ordained avariciousness hurtling us towards ecological catastrophe? This newspaper is not qualified to say, and shouldn't stake claims to anything but its unapologetic defence of the dismal science. Critical thinkers should halt abruptly the comforting lullaby that prompts (apparently) the likes of Larry Ellison to say "I used to think, now I read the Economist". They should look up from their chequebooks long enough to see the impact of the ecological warfare that this newspaper has championed for generations. We must improve globalization, but not before we rebalance capitalism. Natural capital MUST be taken into the equation for our species (and particularly those in fragile economies) to have a chance of flourishing beyond the quarterly reports, annual bonuses and election cycles that keep us chained to our myopic greed.
  • I am really surprised the economist allowed such a generic article in favour of free trade to be published.
kurt stavenhagen

Why they're wrong | The Economist - 0 views

  • But there is a world of difference between improving globalisation and reversing it.
    • kurt stavenhagen
       
      reverse? stretching the terms of the debate?
  • The annual cost to American consumers of switching to non-Chinese tyres after Barack Obama slapped on anti-dumping tariffs in 2009 was around $1.1 billion, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. That amounts to over $900,000 for each of the 1,200 jobs that were “saved”
  • Perhaps a fifth of the 6m or so net job losses in American manufacturing between 1999 and 2011 stemmed from Chinese competition; many of those who lost jobs did not find new ones.
    • kurt stavenhagen
       
      Again, selecting data? What about other countries? Mexico, for example?
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  • As our special report this week argues, more must be done to tackle these downsides. America spends a paltry 0.1% of its GDP, one-sixth of the rich-country average, on policies to retrain workers and help them find new jobs.
kurt stavenhagen

618 - Milk, the Drink of Conquerors | Strange Maps | Big Think - 0 views

  •  
    fascinating map of how drinking milk affected people groups; a map display of this
kurt stavenhagen

Mindfulness-based stress reduction and health benefits: A meta-analysis - 0 views

  • Our findings suggest the usefulness of MBSR as an intervention for a broad range of chronic disorders and problems. In fact, the consistent and relatively strong level of effect sizes across very different types of sample indicates that mindfulness training might enhance general features of coping with distress and disability in everyday life, as well as under more extraordinary conditions of serious disorder or stress.
    • kurt stavenhagen
       
      "broad range" is pre-frontal cortex the main center and improvement upon its functioning most responsible?
  • improvements were consistently seen across a spectrum of standardized mental health measures including psychological dimensions of quality of life scales, depression, anxiety, coping style and other affective dimensions of disability. Likewise, similar benefits were also found for health parameters of physical well-being, such as medical symptoms, sensory pain, physical impairment, and functional quality-of-life estimates, although measures of physically oriented measures were less frequently assessed in the studies as a whole.
  • a recent randomized study of depressives in remission found one-year relapse rates of major depressive episodes to be halved when conventional treatment was supplemented by a mindfulness program [3]. Another investigation of mindfulness training among anxiety and mood disorder patients showed pre- to postintervention improvements in mental health outcomes with an effect size of 0.7 [10].
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  • Mindfulness training may be an intervention with potential for helping many to learn to deal with chronic disease and stress. Nevertheless, we now need to test these claims more thoroughly by using well-defined patient populations, applying more stringent methodological procedures, and assessing objective disease markers in addition to self-reported psychosocial and functional indicators of distress.
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