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GOPPAR FOR U.S. hotels improved in September compared to the month before and it exceeded the pre-pandemic levels, according to STR. Meanwhile, the cost of labor per available room came in higher than the pre-pandemic comparable for the first time. GOPPAR was $84.03 for the month, up from $64.26 reported in August. It was $78.30 for July and $91.23 in June. The performance index was $88.63 in May and stood at $90.96 in April. EBITDA PAR was $60.71 for September, TRevPAR was $222.97 and labor costs per room were $71.52. "Labor costs moved ahead the 2019 comparable due to continued high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor," said Raquel Ortiz, STR's director of financial performance. "Total labor costs were up 5 percent year to date, with all departments reporting higher expenses, except F&B, due to less group demand earlier this year. GOPPAR was the strongest since June 2022, and profit margins came in higher than September 2019. Profit margins have been strong for some time caused by lower employment levels and reduced services."

THE U.S. HOTEL industry will be well on the way to recovery in 2022, according to consulting firm HVS Americas. However, a full recovery in real terms, after adjusting for inflation, remains a few years away, it added. With more assets, both distressed and well performing, expected to come to market this year, 2022 will be an exciting year for the industry, said Rod Clough, president of HVS, in an article titled 'ALIS 2022 Takeaways - Our Industry Braces for a Big Year Ahead'. A near full recovery in RevPAR at $85 for U.S. hotels is likely to happen by the end of 2022 when compared to $86 in 2018-19. "The higher inflationary environment will continue to bode well for hotels, resulting in ADR pricing power leading to a lift in revenue on top of still lean operational models. Group travel is still lagging the recovery, but near-term, smaller-group bookings (at newly raised room rates) should help bridge the gap while the industry waits for larger meetings to return," Clough wrote in the article. "Rising development costs due to supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages, and overall inflation are leading to a general contraction in new hotel openings. Moreover, development challenges are intensifying for major CBDs, attributed to slow office re-openings, a lag in larger convention bookings, higher operating/labor costs, and even higher construction costs than your average project."

U.S. HOTEL REVENUES and profitability saw an increase in 2023 compared to 2022, with improvements in group business across the top 25 markets and upper-scale chains, according to STR's 2023 P&L data. Overall, 14 of the top 25 markets reported double-digit increases in GOPPAR. "Total industry revenues and profits were well beyond 2022 levels as pricing power continued to outweigh the impact of softer leisure demand," said Claudia Alvarado Cruz, senior analytics manager at STR. "A lift in corporate demand made improvements especially notable across the upper-upscale brands and major markets. New York City was the shining example with 47 percent growth in GOPPAR." In 2023, GOPPAR reached $75.83, marking an 8.2 percent increase from 2022. TRevPAR stood at $211.49, indicating a 9.6 percent rise, while EBITDA PAR amounted to $53.05, up 7.6 percent from the prior year. Labor costs notably increased, reaching $71.56, reflecting a 13.2 percent rise.

U.S. HOTEL REVENUE and profitability saw a rise in October, propelled by increased group demand across the top 25 markets, according to CoStar's October 2023 Profit & Loss data. Meanwhile, the U.S. hospitality industry also witnessed its largest year-over-year increases in GOPPAR and TRevPAR since March 2023. In October, GOPPAR reached $97.45, marking a 3.7 percent increase from the same month in 2022. TRevPAR stood at $240.74, indicating a 4 percent increase, whereas EBITDA PAR amounted to $69.60, down 1.2 percent from September 2022. Labor costs notably rose to $74.48, reflecting a 5.9 percent increase. "The top 25 markets have demonstrated an 11 percent year-to-date increase in GOPPAR, surpassing a 14 percent rise in labor costs," said Audrey Kallman, research analyst at STR. "This double-digit GOPPAR growth is over 10 times the level observed in all other markets. New York City, a prominent business-centric market, spearheaded growth in the metric across major markets both on a year-to-date and monthly basis."

OCCUPANCY FOR U.S. hotels is now expected to finish the year a little down from the previous forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. However, projections for ADR and RevPAR recovery remain on track in the data firms' final forecast of the year. RevPAR is still expected to fully recover this year on a nominal basis, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the new forecast. The updated forecast lowered occupancy by less than a percentage point for 2022, standing now at 62.7 percent compared to the previously forecasted 63 percent released in August. "As expected, group business travel has been much more aligned with pre-pandemic patterns, specifically in October when group demand hit a pandemic-era high," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Leisure travel has maintained its strength since our previous forecast update, and we expect these strong demand trends in both group and leisure to continue through the fourth quarter. Bottom-line performance has also persisted, with our most recent data showing strong profit margins due to lower employment levels and reduced services. The challenges around labor continue to be a concern, as high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor are pushing labor costs on a per-available-room basis above 2019 levels. We continue to take inflation and the likely recession into consideration, but the hotel industry has continued to show resilience through these tougher times, thus the steadiness of our updated forecast."

GOPPAR FOR U.S. hotels in February exceeded the levels of the pre-pandemic comparable time period and was the highest since October 2022, according to STR's February 2023 Profit & Loss data. EBITDA was the only key bottom-line metric on a per-available-room basis to come in lower than February 2019, STR said in a statement. GOPPAR reached $77.37 for the month, up 1.6 percent over the same month in 2019, TRevPAR stood at $217.20, up 3.7 percent, and EBITDA PAR was $51.63, down 0.6 percent against February 2019. Labor costs were $73.70, a 2.9 percent increase. "The profit-and-loss metrics followed typical industry trends, improving from the prior month," said Raquel Ortiz, STR's director of financial performance. "Both GOPPAR and GOP margins were the highest since last fall, while profit margins came in just one percentage point below 2019. Profit margins for limited-service hotels are further behind in recovery than full service, likely due to increasing labor costs that bear heavier weight on the bottom line." "An increase in top-line group demand is beginning to show in the bottom line, as catering and banquet revenues are inching closer to 2019 levels and meeting space rentals and services charges surpassed that threshold. On a per-operating-room basis, nearly all F&B revenues outpaced the pre-pandemic comparables," Ortiz added. Of the major markets, 10 realized both GOPPAR and TRevPAR levels higher than the 2019 comparables, the statement said. "February was a slower month for markets that are more dependent on groups and conventions, such as Atlanta, San Francisco and Minneapolis," Ortiz further said. "Warmer markets have remained at the top, with Phoenix showing the highest TRevPAR recovery and second highest GOPPAR recovery for the month, helped by peak season and Super Bowl LVII."

DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE's November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8 percent increase in RevPAR in 2023. This is up from CBRE's previous forecast of a 5.6 percent increase in RevPAR for 2023. Propelling CBRE's increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2 percent rise in ADR, driven in part by the continuation of above long-run average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. to increase by 3.5 percent year over year. Inflation continues to have a mixed impact on the hotel industry, bolstering top-line growth while pressuring margins. Supply and Demand Inflation is also impacting development activity. The combination of rising construction material costs, a tight labor market, and high interest rates will serve to keep supply growth over the next five years 40 percent lower than historical trends. Instead of construction, we expect cash flows in the near term to be focused on debt reductions, renovations and remodels given the backlog of Capex that built up during the pandemic. Given its forecast for a 0.2 percent decline in 2023 gross domestic product, CBRE lowered its expectations for demand growth from 3.3 percent in their August 2022 forecasts to 2.9 percent in the November update. With the projected supply increase remaining at 1.2 percent for 2023, the net result is a reduction in CBRE's occupancy growth estimate for the year to 1.6 percent, down from the 2 percent increase previously forecast. The lowering of occupancy expectations will somewhat offset the enhanced outlook for ADR growth.

IN JUNE, GOPPAR for U.S. hotels reached its highest level since October 2019, according to STR. All profitability metrics were up in the month compared to the month before. GOPPAR was $91.23 for the month, up from $88.63 reported in May. In April GOPPAR stood at $90.96. EBITDA PAR was $69.53 for June, TRevPAR was $226.10 and labor costs per room were $68.40. "Each of the key bottom-line metrics increased from May due to a rise in room rates as well as improved revenue from F&B and groups," said Joseph Rael, STR's senior director of financial performance. "Profit margins have held strong the past 12 months but have been slightly reduced recently due to rising wages and costs. Hotels have brought back services, amenities and F&B operations that were previously reduced, which have increased profits overall but at lower margins. While F&B revenues remain strong, catering and banquet revenue has lagged with improvement in recent months due to rising group demand."

THE HOTEL INDUSTRY is poised for a fairly strong year in 2023 despite remaining concerns about a downturn, according to a pair of reports. Continuing demand is expected to overcome extra labor costs and economic vagaries to propel performance above pre-pandemic levels, according to the reports from the American Hotel & Lodging Association and STR. The state of the industry AHLA's 2023 State of the Hotel Industry Report projects that demand, nominal room revenue and state and local tax revenue all are well on the way to recovery. Operational challenges, such as staffing shortages and economic factors will replace COVID as hoteliers' top concerns, the report predicts. "Three years after the unprecedented hardships our industry faced due to the pandemic, hotels continue to make significant strides toward recovery," said Chip Rogers, AHLA president and CEO. "2022 saw one of the strongest summer travel seasons ever, and this year we expect hotels to reach new heights in terms of room revenue, room-night demand and state and local tax revenue. But when inflation is taken into account, our industry likely won't see full recovery for several more years. Nevertheless, hotel performance is trending in the right direction - great news for our industry and our employees, who are enjoying better pay, more career opportunities, upward mobility and flexibility than ever before."

PROFITS FOR U.S. hotels reached a 28-month high in March, according to STR. Spring break travel and higher rates are pushing performance up on all levels. GOPPAR was $83.81 for the month, the highest level for the metric since November 2019. It was less than $10 shy of reaching the pre-pandemic comparable from March 2019. In February GOPPAR stood at $58.88. EBITDA PAR was $62.68, TRevPAR was $204.84 and labor costs per room were $61.45. For the latter two it was their highest mark since March 2020.