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STR AND TOURISM Economics made significant downward adjustments to the 2024-25 U.S. hotel forecast, reflecting lower-than-expected performance and reduced growth projections for the remainder of the year. Projected gains in ADR and RevPAR were downgraded by 1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively. Occupancy is also expected to decline, contrasting with the previous forecast's projection of year-over-year growth in this metric. While an occupancy growth projection was maintained for 2025, ADR and RevPAR were adjusted downward by 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, STR and TE said in a joint statement. "We have seen a bifurcation in hotel performance over the first four months of the year, which we don't believe will abate soon," said Amanda Hite, STR's president. "The increased cost of living is affecting lower-to-middle income households and their ability to travel, thus lessening demand for hotels in the lower price tier. The upscale through luxury tier is seeing healthy demand, but pricing power has waned given changes in mix and travel patterns and to a lesser extent, economic conditions. Travel remains a priority for most Americans, but the volume has lessened as prices on goods and services continue to rise."

THE U.S. HOTEL industry will be well on the way to recovery in 2022, according to consulting firm HVS Americas. However, a full recovery in real terms, after adjusting for inflation, remains a few years away, it added. With more assets, both distressed and well performing, expected to come to market this year, 2022 will be an exciting year for the industry, said Rod Clough, president of HVS, in an article titled 'ALIS 2022 Takeaways - Our Industry Braces for a Big Year Ahead'. A near full recovery in RevPAR at $85 for U.S. hotels is likely to happen by the end of 2022 when compared to $86 in 2018-19. "The higher inflationary environment will continue to bode well for hotels, resulting in ADR pricing power leading to a lift in revenue on top of still lean operational models. Group travel is still lagging the recovery, but near-term, smaller-group bookings (at newly raised room rates) should help bridge the gap while the industry waits for larger meetings to return," Clough wrote in the article. "Rising development costs due to supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages, and overall inflation are leading to a general contraction in new hotel openings. Moreover, development challenges are intensifying for major CBDs, attributed to slow office re-openings, a lag in larger convention bookings, higher operating/labor costs, and even higher construction costs than your average project."

APPROXIMATELY 51 PERCENT of hospitality industry professionals participating in STR's Hospitality Industry Sentiment survey expressed optimism about their business confidence over the next two years. Respondents rated their confidence at "8" or higher on a 10-point scale. Analyzing the results over the survey's first year reveals a gradual, consistent decline in confidence ratings for each time span. Meanwhile, global recession fears have diminished since the last survey, STR said. Among various industry challenges, "concerns regarding a potential recession" saw the most significant drop between the last two surveys, ranking third behind labor costs and supply issues. Energy and utility costs are slightly increasing, while supply chain challenges and group demand issues are gradually diminishing. Regarding hotel performance, outlined trends influence demand forecasting expectations, the survey said. The percentage of respondents anticipating "strong improvement" or "some improvement" is gradually declining across all three hotel demand segments. A majority of experts still foresee growth in both business transient and group demand.