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THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index jumped in July, ending a downward trend for two consecutive months. The index decreased 10.4 percent year-to-date for the first seven months of 2022. Baird/STR Index recorded a sharp increase of 14.3 percent in July, according to STR. The index fell 19.3 percent in June and dropped 5.8 percent in May. It went up 0.7 percent during April. It increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. The Baird/STR Index surpassed both the S&P 500, up 9.1 percent from June, and the MSCI US REIT Index, increased 8.7 percent, respectively during July. The hotel brand sub-index rose 14.2 percent from June, while the Hotel REIT sub-index increased 14.6 percent during the month. "Hotel stocks rebounded sharply and outperformed their respective benchmarks in July; relative outperformance has continued in August," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Despite the big gains in July, hotel stocks did not fully recapture June's losses. Positively, second quarter earnings exceeded analysts' and investors' expectations, and broader recession fears have begun to subside, which has boosted sentiment and stock prices. All eyes are on the post-Labor Day outlook that should reflect a more normalized travel environment."

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AAHOA MADE CHANGES to two leadership positions Monday with a promotion and a new hire. Heather Carnes to executive vice president for communications and chief strategy officer and hired Phelps Hope as its new executive vice president for operations and chief development officer. Carnes has been with AAHOA for three years, most recently as the association's vice president of marketing and communications, and has worked nearly her entire career in the association space, according to AAHOA. In her new role, she will focus on organizational strategy, marketing and communications, organizational culture and HR, education/program development and strategic partnerships. "It's an incredibly important time for AAHOA and our industry," Carnes said. "I'm thrilled to be moving into this new role where I can have an even greater impact on the organization, our overall strategic initiatives, and working alongside Laura Lee, Phelps, and the rest of the AAHOA team to make big things happen on behalf of our nearly 20,000 hotelier members."

From the courtroom to the halls of Congress, Laura Lee Blake has been representing AAHOA in some capacity for more than a decade now. For the past year she has served as the organization's president and CEO, and recently she sat for Asian Hospitality's Leadership Series to discuss the issues facing the association today. Those issues include the promotion of franchise reform, programs to advance women in the hotel industry and her future plans in her role at AAHOA. Blake's work for the association began well before her current appointment. Making the decision Blake, who is an attorney, worked with AAHOA from 2005 to 2014, then left to return to her law firm in Newport Beach, California. She had just started a trial on a big case when AAHOA offered her the president position.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose 12.7 percent in December over the previous month. It was up 25.6 percent for 2021 as a whole. The index outperformed both the S&P 500, up 4.4 percent, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 8.2 percent in December. The hotel brand sub-index increased 13.2 percent from November while the Hotel REIT sub-index rose 10.9 percent. Investment was bolstered by some, if not good, then less bad than expected news regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Hotel stocks ended a volatile year with strong gains in December as the worst-case scenarios related to the Omicron variant appeared unlikely to unfold as initially feared," Bellisario said. "With the big rebound into year-end, the hotel brands ended up slightly outperforming the S&P 500 in 2021, while the hotel REITs - despite gaining 12 percent on the year - significantly lagged the RMZ's best-ever annual performance. Turning the calendar to 2022, leisure travel strength is expected to persist, but the wildcard for the overall industry's continued recovery remains a more substantialreturn of the business traveler."

NEARLY HALF OF travelers, or 49 percent, have already taken an international trip, according to a survey by travel risk and crisis response provider Global Rescue. That indicates an 88 percent jump in travel abroad since summer of 2021. The Winter 2022 Global Rescue Travel Safety and Sentiment survey has also revealed that domestically, 85 percent of respondents have already traveled, signaling an 18 percent increase during the period. The survey of more than 1,400 respondents between Jan. 25 to 29 found that nine out of 10 travelers are "much less or less" concerned about travel since the pandemic, showing a 22 percent increase in travel confidence. "All signals are pointing to the beginning of the end of international travel restrictions due to the pandemic. Countries like New Zealand, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and others are opening their borders as severe COVID-19 illnesses and hospitalizations decline, vaccinations increase and testing is more convenient. Domestic travel continues to increase but the big news is that travel abroad is surging," said Dan Richards, CEO of Global Rescue. "When people feel safe, they travel and we are seeing tremendous, positive change in the traveler confidence about their well-being."

THE REVPAR OF hotels in Phoenix is forecasted to reach $419 for Super Bowl weekend of February 10-12, the second-highest level for the event, according to STR. As the city also hosts Phoenix Open this week, the Friday through Sunday night occupancy may touch 94 percent and ADR to hit $445. According to STR, a unique volume of demand would push occupancy slightly higher than Phoenix's last host year in 2015 (93.7 percent) even though supply increased by 11.7 percent this year. The ADR level would rank third among host markets behind Miami in 2020 and San Francisco in 2016. "Phoenix's jump in RevPAR during its last Super Bowl host year was staggering, and this time around will be no different with big-time growth contribution from both occupancy and ADR," said Isaac Collazo, STR's vice president of analytics. "Demand speaks for itself, especially with consumer behavior around the event free of pandemic concerns-unlike the last two Super Bowls. Phoenix's ADR situation has different influences than recent host markets given inflation and having less upper-tier supply than a Los Angeles or Miami." The overall Phoenix market comprises 544 hotels with 70,488 rooms.

THE U.S. HOTEL industry will be well on the way to recovery in 2022, according to consulting firm HVS Americas. However, a full recovery in real terms, after adjusting for inflation, remains a few years away, it added. With more assets, both distressed and well performing, expected to come to market this year, 2022 will be an exciting year for the industry, said Rod Clough, president of HVS, in an article titled 'ALIS 2022 Takeaways - Our Industry Braces for a Big Year Ahead'. A near full recovery in RevPAR at $85 for U.S. hotels is likely to happen by the end of 2022 when compared to $86 in 2018-19. "The higher inflationary environment will continue to bode well for hotels, resulting in ADR pricing power leading to a lift in revenue on top of still lean operational models. Group travel is still lagging the recovery, but near-term, smaller-group bookings (at newly raised room rates) should help bridge the gap while the industry waits for larger meetings to return," Clough wrote in the article. "Rising development costs due to supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages, and overall inflation are leading to a general contraction in new hotel openings. Moreover, development challenges are intensifying for major CBDs, attributed to slow office re-openings, a lag in larger convention bookings, higher operating/labor costs, and even higher construction costs than your average project."

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HOTEL OWNERS NAVIGATING industry changes wrought by the pandemic face no dearth of challenges: the decline in business travel, competition from home rental apps and ongoing labor shortages are just a few. Too often, the people owning the hotels - many of them small business owners - are figuring out how to adapt to the new hospitality landscape with added complications from the hotel brands that should be their partners. While many hotel owners have struggled to maintain their livelihoods since the pandemic began three years ago, some big hotel chain franchisers sold hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of loyalty point value to credit card companies under a system that often fails to adequately reimburse the franchisees. That is the thanks these hardworking franchisees got as they worked hard to keep hotel doors open. It does not have to be this way. Generations of franchise owners have successfully embraced entrepreneurship through the franchising model. Franchising allows budding entrepreneurs to adopt a known brand name and comprehensive business strategies in exchange for a portion of the revenue. This partnership has nurtured our industry: Hotels owned by our members employ 1.1 million Americans and contribute $368 billion to the economy. But the franchising relationship needs to be a two-way street to be truly successful. That is why we must ensure that the franchise industry engages in sustainable practices that recognize and safeguard the contributions of small business owners.

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ADR is projected to rise by 0.1 percentage points in 2024, with occupancy and RevPAR remaining unchanged from the previous forecast, according to STR and Tourism Economics' initial U.S. hotel forecast for 2024 at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit. Yet, 2025 projections for key performance metrics were revised downward due to stabilized long-term average trends: occupancy down 0.1 percentage points, ADR down 0.3 points and RevPAR down 0.5 ppts. "U.S. ADR and RevPAR reached record highs in 2023 with solid travel fundamentals and a big year for group business underpinning performance," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "We expect to see continued growth as fundamentals remain more favorable for the travel economy. The indicator that is especially important is the low unemployment rate among college-educated individuals, those most likely to travel for business and leisure." The STR and Tourism Economics forecast a rise in GOPPAR growth due to increased TRevPAR levels and stable labor costs. Among chain scales, luxury and upper upscale hotels are expected to see substantial cost increases, driven by growing group demand.

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