The 2021 Strategic Foresight Report focuses on key global megatrends that will continue to affect the EU in the coming decades: from climate change, technological acceleration and digitalization, to major economic, geopolitical and demographic shifts.

A good pair to my previous post - a nice summary of what needs to happen for electric propulsion in aviation. Four concepts are discussed: air taxis, 20-passenger commuter aircrafts, 50-passenger regional jets and 150-passenger, single-aisle 737 class aircraft.

To me this is how leadership leads - The current UN plans want at least 10% of fuel used in global aviation to be sustainable by 2030. The head of Rolls Royce, manufacturer of aircraft engines, feels the industry needs to move quicker. He has committed to making sure their Trent engine can run purely on sustainable fuel by 2023. And Shell has committed to increasing their production tenfold by 2025.

A discussion of the impact the Trump presidency had on the future of politics in America, including 4 brief go-forward scenario discussions.

A survey based on projections for the year 2050. "Majorities predict a weaker economy, a growing income divide, a degraded environment and a broken political system"

An overview of the Brookings 'States of Change' report. "In this 2020 report, we update our electoral scenarios in several important ways. First, we have produced a new set of underlying demographic projections for the nation and all 50 states plus the District of Columbia based on the latest census data. These projections trace the probable path of demographic change across the country-both for the population as a whole and, importantly, for eligible voters."

Insight into what a generation is focused on. "Issues that dominated campuses during the Vietnam War look a lot like the current social issues college students care about in 2020. Like then, students today are rallying around civil rights and racial justice as a larger cultural rift continues to divide American politics." Also interesting - "Nearly half of students report changing their political leanings during college."

A summary of the 2020 election and what issues are important to the voters that participated. "Underlying the many policy disagreements between Biden and Trump voters is a more personal feeling of distrust and disillusionment that could make compromise all the more difficult."

"In Gallup polling throughout the first quarter of 2021, an average of 49% of U.S. adults identified with the Democratic Party or said they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party. That compares with 40% who identified as Republicans or Republican leaners. The nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage is the largest Gallup has measured since the fourth quarter of 2012." What I found to be more significant was the following: "The 44% of Americans who identify as political independents, whether they subsequently express a party leaning or not, is up from 38% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and is above 40% for the first time since 2019. This is consistent with the historical pattern whereby independent identification typically declines in presidential election years and increases in odd-numbered years. However, the percentages identifying as independent in 2020 and thus far in 2021 have been unusually high compared with prior presidential election and odd-numbered years. Thus, the current level of independent identification ranks among the highest Gallup has measured in any quarter since 1988" More people relate to neither party than to one, so why do they both continue on a trajectory of not satisfying the public? Is the message never heard that the Center is where most of America lives?

"Americans desperately want less fighting in politics and more cooperation carried out with a sense of shared purpose that is focused on the building blocks of national economic improvement and the well-being of all people." I continue to struggle with why the 'will of the people' continues to be difficult to make happen. I'll temper that with the comment that just because a 'random' poll reflects something, that doesn't necessarily mean that it is a true representation of 'the people.'

This project has taken a broader approach to explore how different governments have developed their foresight ecosystems over time and to map the features that can support integration of long-term thinking into policymaking at the most strategic level. It aims to provide a guiding framework to build and sustain foresight in policy-making and to do so in a way that creates long-term impact from futures work. The School of International Futures exists to help policy-makers and business leaders improve the present and the future by using foresight and futures methods to make better strategic choices about the future, to improve the quality of their innovation and make their organisations more resilient by better understanding and managing risk.

It is often implied that the young are more concerned about the environment than older adults, but this study suggests that is not the case. "Older people are just as likely as younger people to recognize the need for action on climate change and to say they're willing to make big sacrifices to protect the environment, suggesting claims of a generational divide over the future of the planet may be exaggerated." The polling included Baby Boomers, Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z, with the results reflecting very similar beliefs about the significance of the issues and the need for action. If politicians knew this, would they behave differently, and take bolder steps to mitigate climate change?

Most of what we hear about greenhouse gases is associated with carbon dioxide. This research focused on removal of methane, which would have a higher payback if a deployable solution can be identified. "...removing about three years-worth of human-caused emissions of the potent greenhouse gas would reduce global surface temperatures by approximately 0.21 degrees Celsius while reducing ozone levels enough to prevent roughly 50,000 premature deaths annually." The case for funding this technology is strong - "Removing methane from the atmosphere could reduce temperatures even faster than carbon dioxide removal alone because methane is 81 times more potent in terms of warming the climate over the first 20 years after its release, and about 27 times more potent over a century. Methane removal also improves air quality by decreasing the concentration of tropospheric ozone, exposure to which causes an estimated one million premature deaths annually worldwide due to respiratory illnesses."

This is a chapter excerpt from a very popular book on Nano Biopesticides. "Today's global population has reached 7 billion, and is projected to reach 9.2 billion by 2050, an increase of 30% (70 million per annum). This explosive increase of the global population is expected to increase the demand for food production by 70%, notably due to changes in dietary habits in developing countries toward high-quality food." There is public demand for an alternative to chemical pesticides as well as the financial incentives "biological pesticides require 3-6 years and an investment of around $15-20 million for development and registration compared to synthetic pesticides, which require 10 years and $200 million for their development." The article is longer than many but a broad spectrum introduction to the technology.

"It is estimated that worldwide plant disease caused 13%, insect 14% and weed 13% loss in food production and accounted for 2000 billion dollars economic loss per year" The initial response to this challenge has been the use of chemical pesticides, but those have historically caused environmental and health issues. This article does a nice job of summarizing the current state of nanopesticides, which hold the promise of being equally effective as the chemicals in use now while doing much less collateral damage. The article concludes with a punch list of the challenges that need to be overcome to make these nanopesticides easy to deploy and raise the confidence that they are safe.

We have all heard of citronella, commonly known to be a natural mosquito repellant. "Biopesticides are substances or mixtures of biological substances used to prevent, destroy, kill, control, or mitigate pests." This article is short but provides a valuable list of biopesticide plants that can be used as the basis for research.