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In 2020 Europe saw a great reverse migration, as those who had sought work abroad returned home. Exact numbers are hard to come by. An estimated 1.3m Romanians went back to Romania-equivalent to three times the population of its second-biggest city. Perhaps 500,000 Bulgarians returned to Bulgaria-a huge number for a country of 7m. Lithuania has seen more citizens arriving than leaving for the first time in years.

DRIVER-POLITICS Water Politics Limited, a geopolitical risk advisory and consulting firm, found that water scarcity could lead to conflict or political instability in many countries. Sources including the Euphrates, Tigris, Jordan, Nile, Danube, and Okavango rivers as well as the Tibetan watershed and resources will become insufficient to support the surrounding areas. These sources currently provide water to dozens of countries across Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Water scarcity will therefore affect communities across the globe. Importantly, it may spark conflict over remaining water resources, within a nation or even between nations. Anya Groner at The Atlantic points to evidence of past conflicts that have revolved around water. These include the riots in Cape Town, South Africa, in 2012, which responded to inequality in the distribution of water resources.

The 2021 Strategic Foresight Report focuses on key global megatrends that will continue to affect the EU in the coming decades: from climate change, technological acceleration and digitalization, to major economic, geopolitical and demographic shifts.

A very interesting but lengthy read. The report describes a system for using foresight to develop EU R&I policy, which includes: - a set of future scenarios for different World Regions, - a mechanism for signposting relevant trends and - a process for assessing policy options combining standard policy assessment mechanisms with future scenarios. The regional scenarios include: ● China ● Japan, South Korea & Taiwan ● ASEAN ● India & its Neighbours ● Australia & New Zealand ● Russia & Central Asia ● The Middle East & North Africa ● Sub-Saharan Africa ● Central & South America ● United States, Canada & Mexico