Where will the next coronavirus variant of concern come from? | The Economist - 1 views
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Mutation is a random process, which is why successful new variants are more likely to come from places where lots of mutation is occurring
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Airfinity’s hypothesis is that this will occur where few people have had the jab and where many suffer from weakened immune systems.
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Airfinity’s researchers concluded that Burundi, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Yemen and Nigeria are most at risk of producing a new variant.
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By January 29th, less than 6% of people living in the four African countries had been fully vaccinated against coronavirus. In Burundi, the country the researchers found to be by far the most at risk, that figure was just 0.05%
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Distribution remains difficult in poor countries: many lack the necessary infrastructure, including reliable electricity, to store vaccines at very low temperatures. Vaccine hesitancy is a problem, too.
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It does not take into account the differing protection offered by various covid vaccines, natural immunity, the impact of population density on transmission or covid treatment options for immunocompromised people. Estimating the number of immunocompromised people is itself hard: the model the data was based on includes only a few conditions. Others, like severe type-1 diabetes or rheumatoid arthritis, were absent. Nor is everyone with such conditions immunocompromised. But the study still offers insight into where to look for future variants—and where to focus efforts on increasing the supply and take-up of vaccines.