How dangerous is North Korea's military arsenal right now? - CNN - 0 views
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Two ballistic missiles fired by North Korea fell harmlessly into the sea on Thursday, but experts say the launch is further proof Kim Jong Un's growing military arsenal poses a significant threat to South Korea, Japan -- and even the US mainland.
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Perhaps the most troubling statement in the CFR report is this: "North Korea could have more than sixty nuclear weapons, according to analysts' estimates, and has successfully tested missiles that could strike the United States with a nuclear warhead."
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Japan, America's most important ally in the Pacific and home to numerous US military bases housing tens of thousands of US personnel, was alarmed.
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North Korea has previously demonstrated it has missiles that can reach Japan. In 2017, it tested two ballistic missiles that flew over the country before landing in the Pacific Ocean.
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Later that year, Pyongyang tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Hwasong-15, that soared skyward before splashing into waters off the coast of Japan. If it had flown on a standard trajectory, David Wright, an expert with the Union of Concerned Scientists, said it could have traveled 13,000 kilometers (8,100 miles).
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"Such a missile would have more than enough range to reach Washington, DC, and in fact any part of the continental United States,"
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The atomic bomb detonated over Hiroshima, Japan, by the US in 1945 killed 70,000 people with its initial blast, and left tens of thousands of others to die slowly from burns or radiation-related illnesses.
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The CFR report notes, however, that as the massive missile displayed at the parade had not yet been tested, its real capabilities remain unknown.
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The South Korean Defense Ministry puts Pyongyang's army at 1.28 million people compared to Seoul's 550,000.
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North Korea has successfully tested nuclear bombs on six occasions, in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016 and in 2017, according to the CFR report.
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Ballistic missiles are powered only through the initial stages of their flight, reaching a zenith at some point and then falling from gravity onto their targets.
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"We're going to have to learn to live with North Korea's ability to target the United States with nuclear weapons," Jeffrey Lewis, a researcher at the Middlebury Institute of Strategic Studies, said in the CFR report.
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A 2020 white paper from South Korea's Defense Ministry said Pyongyang has 13 missile brigades. At October's military parade, nine missiles were unveiled, including the massive ICBM and a submarine-launch ballistic missile, according to the document.
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"North Korea is expected to continue to upgrade its nuclear and missile capabilities in the name of strengthening its self-defense capabilities and mobilize all of its manpower and resources with the aim of improving residents' lives by 2022 when it marks the 110th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birthday,
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Pyongyang's army has developed new multiple-rocket launchers that can hit anywhere in South Korea, Seoul's Defense Ministry said, potentially putting the country's entire population of more than 50 million people in danger.
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The ballistic missiles Pyongyang tested Thursday -- the second weapons test in less than a week -- were likely of a shorter range variety
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North Korea's ground forces can also call on 4,300 tanks, 2,600 armored vehicles and 8,800 artillery pieces
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North Korea's firepower could be brought to bear quickly on Seoul because the South Korean capital is only about 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the 38th parallel that divides the Korean Peninsula.
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However, regardless of whether Pyongyang ever makes good on its threats, the CFR says the potential for attack can't be ignored. 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