The Odds of Impeachment Are Dropping - The Atlantic - 0 views
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Now that Michael Flynn has pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI, and agreed to dish on his former boss, some Trump-watchers are suggesting that impeachment may be around the corner. “It’s time to start talking about impeachment,” announced a Saturday column on CNN.com. The Flynn deal, declared former Deputy Assistant Attorney General Harry Litman in Friday’s New York Times, “portends the likelihood of impeachable charges being brought against the president of the United States.”
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That may be true. But bringing impeachment charges against Trump, and actually forcing him from office, are two vastly different things.
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That’s because impeachment is less a legal process than a political one. Passing articles of impeachment requires a majority of the House. Were such a vote held today—even if every Democrat voted yes—it would still require 22 Republicans. If Democrats take the House next fall, they could then pass articles of impeachment on their own. But ratifying those articles would require two-thirds of the Senate, which would probably require at least 15 Republican votes.
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Democrats did something similar during the battle over Bill Clinton’s impeachment. By September 1998, more than 100 newspapers—including USA Today, the Chicago Tribune and the Philadelphia Inquirer—had called on him to step down. That month, CNN reported that Democratic “lawmakers are privately telling top White House aides that the president should consider resigning.”
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The last decade has shown that you can get big things through Congress with the support of only one party. In 2009, Democrats passed a stimulus bill and Obamacare with no help from the GOP. Last week on tax cuts, Republicans did the reverse. But removing a president requires bipartisanship. And in this ultra-partisan age, that means removing a president is virtually impossible, even when he’s Donald Trump.