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Contents contributed and discussions participated by oliviaodon

oliviaodon

"Germany Is Becoming More Normal" - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • Angela Merkel is traditionally known as Germany’s “safe pair of hands,” but when government-coalition talks unexpectedly collapsed late Sunday night after just four weeks, her future as the country’s chancellor was suddenly in question.
  • A second option would involve a return of the Social Democrats (SPD), Merkel’s former “grand coalition” partner, to the government. While such a coalition would easily command a parliamentary majority, it’s one the center-left SPD ruled out in September after its poor showing in the country’s general election—which delivered its worst-ever result more than half a century—and one it rejected again Monday, reaffirming that it would rather have new elections altogether.
  • With Jamaica no longer an option, Germany is faced with three choices: The first is a minority government, formed by Merkel’s CDU/CSU party in coalition with either the FDP (which would leave the government 29 seats short of a majority) or the Greens (short 42 seats). Though that’s not impossible, Marcel Dirsus, a political scientist at the University of Kiel, told me this option would be alien to both Merkel’s leadership style and the country as a whole. “For historical reasons, Germans are very skeptical of minority governments because it reminds people of the Weimar period,” he said, referring to the post-World War I period between 1918 and 1933 known for its political instability. “For somebody like Angela Merkel, it’s not in her style of governing to run a minority government because she’s not exactly a big gambler.” And a minority government would certainly be a gamble for Merkel—effectively denying her the authority she needs to push through reforms both at home and within the eurozone. “She’s somebody who doesn’t just embody stability, but I think she also likes stability herself.”
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  • pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) party announced that it would no longer take part in coalition talks to form Germany’s next government. Though Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party and its Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) sister party won the largest share of votes during the country’s general election in September, they failed to win enough seats to govern on their own.
  • This brings us to the last, and perhaps most drastic, option: new elections. But calling for new elections is hardly easy, nor would it be Merkel’s decision to make (though she said Monday that she would be open to the possibility if a coalition was not possible). Instead, the country’s Basic Law requires that German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier first nominate Merkel as chancellor, after which she would be required to earn a majority of votes in the German parliament, or Bundestag, before she could be reinstated. Only if she were to lose three attempts at such a vote would Steinmeier be able to
  • dissolve the Bundestag; then new elections would have to be held within 60 days. Though a recent poll found that 68 percent of Germans would favor of new elections if Jamaica coalition talks fail, it’s an option Steinmeier appears keen on avoiding, noting in a statement Monday that the parties’ responsibility to form a government “cannot be simply given back to the voters.”
  • “Germany is just becoming more normal. It would be a mistake to over-interpret what is happening. This is not Trump, this is not Brexit. Merkel is weakened, but she’s still in power. … Germany … [is] still very far removed from some of the things that we see around us.”
oliviaodon

These Baltic Militias Are Readying For War With Russia - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • Among the paramilitary volunteers are bikers, ex-soldiers, hunters, and stockbreeders. Each group has its own division dedicated to training young men and women in military tactics and patriotism; some volunteers are as young as 12 years old. These groups insist they are apolitical. They seek to defend their borders and train the warriors of tomorrow to prepare for whatever Putin has planned next.
oliviaodon

What's Dangerous About Donald Trump's Foreign Policy? - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • When critics argue that Donald Trump is an exceptionally reckless commander in chief, they tend to highlight how the American president deviates from the norm.
  • The Trump administration “has handled things in a ... measured and firm way that will prevent North Korea from miscalculating,” Han argued. “I do not know if it is wise to push North Korea to the extent they feel they have to react in a non-peaceful way. But North Korea has shown some degree of restraint as far as deeds are concerned, although their rhetoric has also been quite blustery.”
oliviaodon

Masha Gessen: How Trump and Putin Are Just Alike - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • The American-Russian journalist Masha Gessen has thought a lot about Trump’s rambling and disjointed way of speaking—in part because it reminds her so much of Vladimir Putin’s style. In Russia, Putin uses words yet means their opposites. At times, he seems to render words meaningless.
  • I think Donald Trump was brought to power by Americans. They voted for him.
oliviaodon

How the U.S. and China Differ on North Korea - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • Last week, President Trump named North Korea a state sponsor of terrorism, tagging the communist country with the label almost a decade after the Bush administration removed it.
  • For Washington, the road to a diplomatic solution with North Korea goes through Beijing. But despite public statements to the contrary, the United States and China are quite divided on some key questions, including why North Korea pursues nuclear weapons in the first place, and on the reasons why previous agreements to halt its illicit activities failed. Unless they can bridge these gaps, any lasting resolution of the North Korean crisis is unlikely.
  • The Trump administration has said that its goal is to isolate North Korea, in the hope that pressure through sanctions will compel it to renounce its nuclear and ballistic-missile programs and seek dialogue with the United States.
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  • North Korea has a long history of provocation in the face of what it regards as threats from the United States and South Korea. It has warned of a “merciless strike” in retaliation against their joint military exercises, and said it would accelerate its nuclear-weapons program in response to the deployment in South Korea of the Terminal High Altitude Thermal Defense System, a U.S. anti-missile defense network.
  • The U.S. position can be better understood through the lens of a pair of earlier failed agreements with North Korea—failures caused, in Washington’s view, by Pyongyang
  • The view from Washington is quite different. Government officials and experts alike believe North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons has aggressive and offensive objectives
  • Chinese experts believe North Korea’s leaders pursue nuclear weapons because they feel genuinely threatened by the United States and South Korea.
  • Unless China adopts America’s approach, at least in part (or vice versa), the crisis is unlikely to diminish. “Even though at the surface level they appear cooperative, deep down their approaches of dealing with North Korea are fundamentally different,” Zhao said. Ultimately, Zhao said, the nature of the disagreements between Washington and Beijing ensures that the crisis of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs will remain unresolved for some time to come.
oliviaodon

Why Trump's Attack on the Time Warner Merger Is Dangerous for the Press - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • There are several reasons the Trump administration move to block a proposed merger between AT&T and Time Warner raised eyebrows. It was without recent precedent, and was contradicted, within just a day, by the cancellation of so-called net-neutrality regulations, undermining the administration’s argument about protecting the little guy.
  • The relatives merits of allowing the merger—and of blocking it—have been argued extensively by better-versed minds.
  • This has gotten some worried attention, but not nearly enough. This should be a wake-up call for American journalists.
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  • I have seen this play out so many times before—in Russia, that scary place portrayed as one with no press freedom and dead journalists stacked like cords of wood. I have spent most of my professional life writing about Russia, and whenever I have lived there or travel there, Americans ask me, “Aren’t you afraid to report there?” Whenever my Russian journalist friends meet Americans, they get asked the same thing, “Aren’t you afraid for your life?”
  • No one died, no one was arrested, but the channel, suddenly strapped for cash, had to fire half its staff.
  • Or take the example of RBC, Russia’s rough equivalent of Bloomberg. It is owned by Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, who also owns part of the Brooklyn Nets.
  • There are too many other examples to enumerate, but the death of independent Russian media—and it is in its death throes—did not come about through mass murder.
  • Russian journalists are watching us right now, and they’re mystified. After Trump shut down CNN’s Jim Acosta at his first press conference as president, the Russian journalist Alexey Kovalev offered Putin’s press conferences as a warning.
oliviaodon

The Ultra-Nationalist British Party Raised Out of Obscurity - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • “THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, DONALD TRUMP, HAS RETWEETED THREE OF DEPUTY LEADER JAYDA FRANSEN'S TWITTER VIDEOS,”
  • Such attention is a major boost for Fransen and her far-right ultranationalist political movement, Britain First—whose official policy platform calls among other things to “reject and deport all ‘asylum seekers’ who do not originate from countries bordering Britain,” and “introduce a comprehensive ban on the religion of ‘Islam’ within the United Kingdom.”
  • Whatever the ultimate real-world consequences of the tweet, the group for now remains on the margins of British politics.
oliviaodon

Pressure North Korea, Antagonize China - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • Not long after North Korea test-fired its longest-range missile yet, the Trump administration settled into its familiar diplomatic routine of putting pressure on China—or blaming the country outright.
  • But realistically, if there were an economic way to exert more on pressure North Korea, it would have to come from China.
  • The U.S. wants North Korea to commit to denuclearization before it begins talks, something Pyongyang will not do. But China has another worry: regime collapse in North Korea, which could create a refugee problem on its border and, ultimately, a reunified Korean Peninsula allied with the United States.
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  • This means that China perceives its security threatened from several different directions—not just from the North Koreans. “North Korea’s continuous provocation directly undermines China’s security interest, [and] provides an excuse, from the Chinese perspective, for U.S., South Korea, and Japan to strengthen their security alliance,” Zhao said.
  • Still, even if  China is willing to take more steps against the North, Zhao said, “but realistically I don't think there’s much left for China to do.”
oliviaodon

Cambodia's Crackdown on Free Press - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • The paper aimed to embody objective journalism, and to train a generation of journalists.
  • he Daily was not progovernment, but neither was it antigovernment.
  • However high-quality its journalism, The Daily’s offices were run-down to the point of crumbling, with donated Apple IIs and salvaged furniture. In 2001, staff barely got word of the 9/11 attacks, because Krisher hadn’t paid the cable bill. As Ryun Patterson, the night editor, scrambled to update the paper, Krisher called from Washington, D.C., where he could see smoke billowing from the Pentagon. That wasn’t why he was calling. He wanted to check the wording of a brief item about a staffer’s defamation lawsuit.
oliviaodon

Do Americans Really Want Troops in Syria Indefinitely? - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • The vote that Congress took before the United States invaded Iraq proved very important in American democracy.
  • What’s more, the American presence is open-ended.
  • Instead, Trump has ceded decisions about war to unaccountable elites in the administrative state, to an even greater degree than his predecessors had done. Whether America will spend untold billions for an unknown number of additional years is even farther removed from whether citizens see that course as the best use of lives and tax dollars. And whether America’s Syria policy is a striking success or failure, many voters will have a hard time figuring out where their representative stood on the matter.Congress is well-aware of its abdication.
oliviaodon

Germany's Perilous Political Dance - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • Early Thursday afternoon, Martin Schulz, the head of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), Germany’s second-largest party, strode onto the stage in Messe Berlin, the city’s trade fair center, as hundreds of delegates crowded in. It was the party’s national convention, and Schulz hoped to be re-elected as its leader. Equally important, however, was his proposal to begin talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives on possibly forming a coalition government together—the same coalition that has governed Germany over the last four years.
  • Since then, the SPD has wilted in Merkel’s shadow.
  • For a grand coalition to succeed now, both the Social Democrats and Merkel’s conservatives must assess how much they can achieve together, and how fast, Jan Techau said. Their failure could further embolden the AfD. “It’s the big risk and one of the reasons why some of the SPD are so fundamentally against a grand coalition,” Techau said.
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  • Merkel could, of course, spin this political instability into a success.
oliviaodon

How Russia Hacked America-And Why It Will Happen Again - The Atlantic - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • During the 2016 presidential campaign, Russian hackers attacked the U.S. on two fronts: the psychological and the technical. Hackers used classic propaganda techniques to influence American voters, bought thousands of social media ads to propagate fake news, and broke into Democratic party email servers to steal information. And it won't be the last time. Russian-backed psychological cyber warfare will only get better, and its methods more sophisticated.
oliviaodon

It's Not That Hard To Avoid Normalizing Nazis - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • Why is it that, in America in 2017, the question of how not to normalize Nazis provokes heated debate? Is there a way to discuss the everyday life of fascists without normalizing? Although there are no quick and easy rules to follow, there are lessons—plenty of them—to be gleaned from history. The most powerful lessons emerge from the press coverage of the Third Reich, especially the soft-focus profiles of Adolf Hitler published in the 1930s. These stories set the journalistic gold standard for how not to write about Nazis.
  • Above all, Alltagsgeschichte exposes the complexity of human agency. To shed light on the choices people make—why one person might condone or participate in hateful acts, while another resists—historians consider the impact of specific social ties, institutions, and living and working environments.
  • From 1935 to 1939, The New York Times ran four stories on Hitler’s homes. On August 20, 1939, the paper published a glowing account by British journalist Hedwig Mauer Simpson of Hitler’s private life on the Obersalzberg. Ignoring the German troops massing on the Polish border, Simpson described the Führer’s beautiful rooms and domestic routine as well as providing details about the ripeness of the tomatoes on his table and his love of gooseberry pie. It was all so ordinary.
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  • But the appeal of Hitler-at-home stories went beyond curiosity about how the other half lives. In fact, their representation of the German leader as a “good man,” whose simple tastes and joys were not that different from ordinary men’s and women’s, reassured readers at a politically unsettled time, when another global war seemed to be approaching. The gracious host depicted in these puff pieces was never interrupted with rude questions about concentration camps. Nazi propagandists insisted that Hitler’s homes existed outside the sphere of politics, and the journalists that covered them largely obliged this view.
  • When the war ended, the fascination with Hitler’s homes continued.
oliviaodon

Honest Politicians Won't Fix Corruption - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • The good news is that much of the world is fed up with corruption. The bad news is that the way many are fighting corruption is ineffective. Too often, the remedy centers on finding and empowering an honest leader who promises to stamp out the problem. Worldwide, candidates for elected offices are running on highly personalized anti-corruption platforms, offering themselves as the solution. What countries really need, though, are smart laws that reduce the incentives and opportunities for corruption. They also need strong institutions that enforce those laws and deprive corrupt officials, and their private-sector accomplices, of impunity in their efforts to get rich at the public’s expense.
  • Societies that bet on an honest leader to solve their problems almost always lose out. Such leaders may turn out to have integrity, or they may not. Silvio Berlusconi, Vladimir Putin, and Hugo Chávez all came to power promising to stamp out corruption. And we know how that turned out.
  • The fight against corruption does not have to be corrupt, however. In Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay, for example, the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) is supporting “public innovation laboratories” that experiment with new methods of monitoring and controlling government conduct.
oliviaodon

Religious Bias Is Distorting American Foreign Policy - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • I saw fissures widening already when I was in Iraq at the invitation on the UN High Commissioner for Refugees earlier this year: Christian communities are receiving financial assistance from the global faithful and therefore able to rebuild their houses of worship and their communities faster and more opulently than their Muslim neighbors. It is breeding resentment.
  • The administration’s discomfort with multinational institutions further aggravates the problem.
oliviaodon

A Hypnotic Descent Into Dehumanization - The Atlantic - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • Dehumanization can take many forms, but its end result is always the same: The extinguishment of all that dignifies an individual. Irregulars, a powerful short film by Fabio Palmieri, is the story of one teenager’s dehumanization. His experience unfolds against the hypnotic backdrop of a mannequin factory.
  • “What could I show instead of a black screen?” Palmieri told The Atlantic. “When I found the mannequin factory, a metaphor of dehumanization, it became easily the perfect aesthetic for Cyrille's story and, more generally, the refugee migration tragedy.”
oliviaodon

Lindsey Graham: There's a 30 Percent Chance Trump Attacks North Korea - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • It’s become a grim ritual in Washington foreign-policy circles to assess the chances that the United States and North Korea stumble into war. But on Wednesday Lindsey Graham did something different: He estimated the odds that the Trump administration deliberately strikes North Korea first, to stop it from acquiring the capability to target the U.S. mainland with a long-range, nuclear-tipped missile. And the senator’s numbers were remarkably high.
  • “I would say there’s a three in 10 chance we use the military option,” Graham predicted in an interview. If the North Koreans conduct an additional test of a nuclear bomb—their seventh—“I would say 70 percent.”
  • “We’re not to the tipping point yet,” he noted, but “if they test another [nuclear] weapon, then all bets are off.”
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  • “War with North Korea is an all-out war against the regime,” he said
  • “I don’t know how to say it any more direct: If nothing changes, Trump’s gonna have to use the military option, because time is running out,” Graham said. “I don’t care if North Korea becomes a Chinese protectorate. … I don’t care who [the Chinese] put in charge of North Korea, as long as that person doesn’t want to create a massive nuclear arsenal to threaten America. There are a couple ways for this to end: The Chinese could kill the guy if they wanted to, or they could just stop oil shipments [to North Korea], which would bring [Kim Jong Un’s] economy to [its] knees.” Graham’s scenarios for resolving the crisis short of war, along with his vision for war, notably conclude with regime change in North Korea, which the Trump administration claims to not be pursuing.
oliviaodon

From Trump's Twitter Feed to Dictators' Mouths - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • Donald Trump has assailed the media many times since he became president in January.
  • Criticism of the media isn’t new—nor is criticism of the media by an American president.
oliviaodon

American War - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • Dystopian novels are a difficult genre: They need to be imaginative, edging on the far-fetched, while being just plausible enough to terrify. Omar El Akkad’s American War, which interprets the American South by way of the Middle East, challenges Americans to imagine what it might be like to die for, but also kill, their fellow citizens.
  • There are little details that stand out: the stubbornness of symbols; how the simple revving of an engine still running on old fuel, while ultimately meaningless, becomes an act of rebellion, an expression of self-affirmation but a completely futile one in the face of so much killing.
  • The Founding Fathers do not exist, or at least no one seems interested in mentioning them or calling upon their memory. The Constitution isn’t so much a historical curiosity but an abstraction; there’s only reference, during peace negotiations, to a “Constitutional Defense Officer,” which suggests that there’s a constitution he is trying to defend. Interestingly, in a book that elevates Southern culture, or any cultural nationalism, to its logical conclusion, the racial composition of this new America isn’t made clear. The main character, Sarat, is a person of color. That this is never made entirely explicit adds to the book’s eerie haziness. In unmooring America from its own racial legacy, El Akkad seems to be saying that war could happen here, but it could also happen anywhere.   
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  • What fills the gap isn’t any distinctive ideology or religion but a kind of nothingness. The Bible is cited, but only as a plot device and a scene setter—in other words something incidental to the act of killing. On the radio, bible reciters are “disembodied” voices disconnected from the daily horrors of war.The book’s most violent character—who is also the closest thing American War has to a heroine—is not a believer; there is no investigation of deeply held beliefs and what they might entail. But the fact that no one seems to believe in any set of ideas particularly strongly does not impede their willingness to kill. It’s hard to know if the author, here, is trying to make an argument about the pointlessness of war—that there will always be a justification, with or without the divine.
  • In the actual Civil War, the one that happened, the question of the divine and, more specifically, of theodicy—why God permits evil—was at the forefront, but perhaps more so after the fact. Only one of the two sides, both of which prayed to the same God, could win. At the start of the war, after the first bloodless Southern victory at the Battle of Fort Sumter, many, particularly on the Southern side, assumed it would last weeks or months. When it was finally over, 2 percent of the American population was dead, making it one of the most bloody conflicts in human history. At the same time, it was one of the last conventional wars where death wasn’t quite mechanized. In infantry engagements, you had little choice but to look right at the people you were trying to kill. They generally looked like you, spoke the same language, and were around the same age.  
  • In this sense, ideas, including religious ideas—to the extent that they cut across ethnic, tribal, and partisan divisions—have the potential to be powerful obstacles to the breakdown of society and the violence that often ensues.
  • Getting Democrats to rediscover religion, then, isn’t just a matter of winning elections—as important as that may be—but of beginning to close a worsening divide that exacerbates polarization and further undermines any shared sense of national identity.
  • Voters might be irrational, but they aren’t stupid. They can sense disdain from their politicians, particularly when it comes to matters of identity.
  • Religion isn’t just a problem for Democrats, however. The weakness of American Christianity is leaving its mark on the Republican Party, with organized religion in decline among white Republicans
  • The ideological drift of recent years might have provided as opportune a moment as any for political Christianity to reassert itself among whites.
  • With a more secular generation coming of age, the percentage of Christian conservatives will continue to decrease. There will still be a Pence wing of the Republican Party, but it is likely to find itself increasingly intertwined with ethno-nationalism, confusing, perhaps permanently, which matters more—the white or the Christian—in White Christian. The assumption, long held by members of minority religious groups like myself, that a secular America would be a more tolerant, pluralistic, and therefore more stable place will be tested. In the meantime, we would do well to remember that demographic conflicts aren’t necessarily better than religious ones.
oliviaodon

The National Security Strategy Papers Over a Crisis - The Atlantic - 0 views

  • In off-the-record conversations with outsiders, the Trump administration’s senior national-security officials all stay in the mainstream of U.S. foreign policy. They recognize the threat from Russia, often with great passion. They reject the notion they are protectionist, instead championing bilateral deals as an alternative to mega trade pacts such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. They steadfastly back U.S. allies, especially those in NATO. They even make favorable reference to the much-derided liberal international order.
  • Trump’s silence followed a remarkable story last week in The Washington Post that said the president cannot stand to be briefed on the Russian political threat to the United States and has refused to do anything to counter it. He was furious at the new sanctions imposed on Russia, blamed Congress for the downturn in relations with Moscow, and has done everything in his power not to implement them. We also know that Russia wasn’t even on the agenda at the NATO summit earlier this year, so nervous were U.S. allies of antagonizing the president.So, we’re left to ponder the question once more: Who to believe? Is the United States serious about countering Russian power? Or is it asleep at the switch? The answers are yes and yes—parts of the administration are actively working to counter Russia, even as one important part is not and prefers to embrace Putin.
  • The notion that Trump is weak and ineffective is the unstated assumption behind the school of thought—particularly prevalent among conservatives sympathetic to him and some foreign governments—that this is all going to work out okay. Of course, they never say that outright, but it’s what they mean. They always point to the bureaucrats and the “actions” (as if Trump’s actions do not count), and never the president himself.
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  • The story of year one is that of a president who remains as radical, erratic, and thin-skinned as ever. He entered office with no Senate-confirmable foreign-policy loyalists. He turned to the military and titans of industry and they constrained him and took control of the bureaucracy. He has had to tolerate being handled, but he is not happy about it. He breaks out whenever he can—defying them on Iran or on Jerusalem or with a phone call or in a speech.
  • The main lesson of the launch of the National Security Strategy is that U.S. foreign policy is still in crisis and will remain so for the duration of the Trump presidency. Some brave men and women on the inside are trying to chart a course toward safety, but there are no guarantees they will succeed in containing Trump or that they will remain at their posts. The most testing days of this crisis still lie ahead.
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