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blaise_glowiak

Was the Middle East better off with its dictators? - CNN.com - 0 views

edition.cnn.com/...index.html

the middle east

shared by blaise_glowiak on 28 May 15 - No Cached
  • blaise_glowiak on 28 May 15
     
    While this instability is making the West -- particularly the United States -- uncomfortable, it is also a direct result of the West's own stance towards dictatorships in the region prior to and during the Arab Spring. The West's shortsightedness in handling the Middle East throughout its modern history has directly contributed to its current devastation. The situation in Yemen today shows that even though the status quo under dictatorships may have appeared stable, beneath the surface volcanoes were preparing to erupt But the current misery in the Middle East still does not mean that the region was better off under dictatorships. The aftermath of dictatorships is always messy, and democratic transition is never linear.
mollyharper

Yemen rebels attack presidential compound in escalating attacks seen as coup bid - The ... - 0 views

www.washingtonpost.com/...4-9f89-561284a573f8_story.html

mideast terrorism

shared by mollyharper on 20 Jan 15 - No Cached
  • Further instability also would reverberate far from Yemen. The group al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is seen one of the most active threats to the United States and its allies in the region.
qkirkpatrick

Disputed Claims Over Qaeda Role in Paris Attacks - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...n-peninsula-charlie-hebdo.html

france terrorism religion

shared by qkirkpatrick on 15 Jan 15 - No Cached
  • The younger of the two brothers who killed 12 people in Paris last week most likely used his older brother’s passport in 2011 to travel to Yemen, where he received training and $20,000 from Al Qaeda’s affiliate there, presumably to finance attacks when he returned home to France.
  • American counterterrorism officials said on Wednesday they now believe that Chérif Kouachi, the younger brother, was the likely aggressor in the attacks, not Saïd Kouachi, as they first thought
  • If the claim of direct responsibility holds up, it would make the attacks in France the deadliest planned and financed by Al Qaeda on Western soil since the transit bombings in London in 2005 that killed 52 people
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • “I suspect that Chérif Kouachi did engage AQAP members in Yemen, but that he was not fully brought into the organization,
  • The statement by the Qaeda branch in Yemen called the Kouachi brothers, who were shot to death by police on Friday, “two heroes of Islam.” But it referred to the actions of Amedy Coulibaly, who attacked a police officer the day of the assault on Charlie Hebdo and was shot to death by police after holding hostages in a kosher supermarket, as a coincidence and did not take responsibility for them.
  • qkirkpatrick on 15 Jan 15
     
    People are disputing over claims that Al Qaeda was behind attacks in france
maddieireland334

Yemen crisis: Dozens killed by 'air strike' near refugee camp - 0 views

diigo.com/07h8cd

Yemen air strike crisis rebels

shared by maddieireland334 on 31 Mar 15 - No Cached
  • maddieireland334 on 31 Mar 15
     
    An air strike has killed at least 40 people at a refugee camp in northwest Yemen, aid workers have said. State media said Saudi planes were responsible, but the Yemeni foreign minister said "artillery strikes" by Houthi rebels were to blame.
anonymous

As It Fights ISIS, Pentagon Seeks String of Bases Overseas - The New York Times - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...eas-bases-to-contain-isis.html

history us crisis culture fights pentagon bases

shared by anonymous on 10 Dec 15 - No Cached
  • As American intelligence agencies grapple with the expansion of the Islamic State beyond its headquarters in Syria, the Pentagon has proposed a new plan to the White House to build up a string of military bases in Africa, Southwest Asia and the Middle East.
  • The growth of the Islamic State’s franchises — at least eight militant groups have pledged loyalty to the network’s leaders so far
  • The plan would all but ensure what Pentagon officials call an “enduring” American military presence in some of the world’s most volatile regions
  • ...10 more annotations...
  • The officials said that it was meant primarily as a re-examination of how the military positions itself for future counterterrorism missions, but that the growing concern about a metastasizing Islamic State threat has lent new urgency to the discussions.
  • The plan has met with some resistance from State Department officials concerned about a more permanent military presence across Africa and the Middle East, according to American officials familiar with the discussion.
  • Al Qaeda or other terrorist groups — including possible attacks against American embassies, like the assault on the diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, in 2012.
  • “You can’t just leave this on cruise control,”
  • “hubs” — including expanding existing bases in Djibouti and Afghanistan — and smaller “spokes,” or more basic installations, in countries that could include Niger and Cameroon, where the United States now carries out unarmed surveillance drone missions, or will soon.
  • The military already has much of the basing in place to carry out an expansion. Over the past dozen years, the Pentagon has turned what was once a decrepit French Foreign Legion base in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa, into a sprawling headquarters housing 2,000 American troops for military operations in East Africa and Yemen.
  • “Because we cannot predict the future, these regional nodes — from Morón, Spain, to Jalalabad, Afghanistan — will provide forward presence to respond to a range of crises, terrorist and other kinds,”
  • He said that the Islamic State’s inclusion of Boko Haram and other militant groups into its fold was part of a “global dynamic.”
  • “completely subsumed” into the Islamic State.
  • They are flying the Islamic State flag, he said, “in an attempt to elevate their cause.”
runlai_jiang

Saudi Crown Prince Woos British to Bring Business Back Home - WSJ - 0 views

www.wsj.com/...-business-back-home-1520428636

Saudi Arabia Britain cooperation

shared by runlai_jiang on 07 Mar 18 - No Cached
  • A three-day trip to the U.K. that began Wednesday is the young royal’s first visit to a Western country since he ousted a powerful cousin to become heir to the throne in June, a bumpy political transition that led to the arrests of critical clerics, princes and journalists.
  • For British Prime Minister Theresa May, who is hosting the Saudi prince at her country house, the visit is a chance to burnish commercial ties. Expanding economic links with countries outside the EU is a critical goal as Britain prepares to exit from the bloc in March next year. Saudi Arabia is already its biggest trading partner in the Middle East, with companies from the U.K. investing more in Saudi Arabia than from any other country after the U.S.
  • To draw foreign firms to the kingdom, the Saudi government is also trying to project a softer image of the ultraconservative country.
  • ...7 more annotations...
  • Prince Mohammed, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, is pushing to end its dependence on oil revenues. That plan will largely depend on Saudi Arabia—a country with a Byzantine bureaucracy and an opaque legal system—becoming more attractive to foreign investors.
    • runlai_jiang
      runlai_jiang on 07 Mar 18
       
      The ultra-conservative Saudi Arabia is trying to end its dependence on oil revenues by international relations with different allies, having a sign of being open.
  • Billboards touting Prince Mohammed as the face of change in the kingdom could be seen in the streets of London.
  • He is creating a new and vibrant Saudi Arabia,” said one of the billboards, sponsored by a Saudi consulting firm.
  • But the two leaders, Prince Mohammed and Mrs. May, will also have to address difficult issues like the Saudi war in Yemen.
  • he added that “we are all concerned about the appalling humanitarian situation in Yemen,” but said that engaging with the Saudi leadership was the best way to get aid into the country.
  • Britain has deployed the monarchy as a tool of soft power with the Gulf’s Arab states before. Prince Charles has traveled frequently to Saudi Arabia—on one occasion even participating in the traditional Saudi sword dance.
  • But Prince Mohammed’s visit also underscores the stark differences between the two monarchies.
anonymous

Saudi Arabia Charges Iran With 'Act of War,' Raising Threat of Military Clash - The New... - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...yemen-saudi-iran-missile.html

saudi arabia iran war Crisis history

shared by anonymous on 07 Nov 17 - No Cached
  • Saudi Arabia Charges Iran With ‘Act of War,’ Raising Threat of Military Clash
  • Saudi Arabia charged Monday that a missile fired at its capital from Yemen over the weekend was an “act of war” by Iran, in the sharpest escalation in nearly three decades of mounting hostility between the two regional rivals.
  • “We see this as an act of war,” the Saudi foreign minister, Adel Jubair, said in an interview on CNN. “Iran cannot lob missiles at Saudi cities and towns and expect us not to take steps.”
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • “Today confrontation is the name of the game,” said Joseph A. Kechichian, a scholar at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, who is close to the royal family. “This young man, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is not willing to roll over and play dead. If you challenge him, he is saying, he is going to respond.”
  • The accusations raise the threat of a direct military clash between the two regional heavyweights at a time when they are already fighting proxy wars in Yemen and Syria, as well as battles for political power in Iraq and Lebanon.
  • Even before the launching of the missile on Saturday, which was intercepted en route to Riyadh, the Saudi capital, the crown prince had staged another surprise demonstration of the kingdom’s newly aggressive posture toward Iran and Lebanon
  • Mr. Trump has encouraged Saudi Arabia and its allies “to be more forceful against Iran, and to take more charge of their own neighborhood, and they have taken that to heart,” Mr. Jordan said. “They know America will have their back.”
ecfruchtman

Yemen spiraling toward 'total collapse' as world watches, UN warns - 0 views

www.cnn.com/...index.html

shared by ecfruchtman on 05 Jun 17 - No Cached
  • ecfruchtman on 05 Jun 17
     
    Blaming the "inability or indifference" of the international community, the United Nations' humanitarian chief warned that Yemen is spiraling toward "total social, economic and institutional collapse."
clairemann

Could a Joe Biden Presidency Help Saudi Political Prisoners? | Time - 0 views

time.com/...joe-biden-saudi-arabia

US trump election policy gop politics

shared by clairemann on 30 Oct 20 - No Cached
  • Saudi Arabian legal scholar Abdullah Alaoudh has become adept at spotting state-backed harassment.
  • “take advantage of what they called the chaos in the U.S. and kill me on the streets,” Alhaoudh tells TIME
  • Although the message ended with a predictable sign-off, “your end is very close, traitor,” Alaoudh was more struck by what he took to be a reference to protests and unrest in the months leading up to the U.S. elections.
  • ...22 more annotations...
  • For dissidents living outside the Kingdom, the American election has personal as well as political implications. On one side is an incumbent who has boasted he “saved [Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s] ass”
  • On the other is Democratic challenger Joe Biden, who last year said he would make Saudi Arabia a “pariah,” singled out the kingdom for “murdering children” in Yemen, and said there’s “very little social redeeming value in the present Saudi leadership.”
  • Saudi Arabia was the destination for Trump’s first trip overseas in May 2017, a visit that set the tone for the strong alliance that has persisted ever since.
  • “but what I’m sure of is that a Biden Administration would not be as compliant and affectionate with Saudi Arabia as Trump has been.”
  • Al-Odah is one of hundreds detained or imprisoned in Saudi Arabia for activism of criticism of the government. He was arrested only hours after he tweeted a message to his 14 million followers calling on Saudi Arabia to end its blockade of the tiny Gulf Emirate of Qatar, Alaoudh says.
  • Court documents list al-Odah’s charges as including spreading corruption by calling for a constitutional monarchy, stirring public discord, alleged membership of the Muslim Brotherhood, and “mocking the government’s achievements.”
  • For some, like Alaoudh, those words offer a glimmer of hope that relatives detained in the kingdom might have improved prospects of release should Biden win in November
  • ranging from 450,000 to “a million,” (the actual total is between 20,000 to 40,000, according to May report by the Center for International Policy.)
  • But subsequent behind-the-scenes meetings between Trump’s special advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner’s and King Salman’s son Mohammed bin Salman (known as MBS) proved at least as significant as the President’s headline announcements.
  • the historic ties between the U.S. and the Al Saud that date back to 1943, or business interests in the region is unclear, says Stephen McInerney, Executive Director at the non-partisan Washington-based Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). What is clear, he says, is that “Trump and his family—and in particular Jared Kushner—have close personal ties to Mohammed Bin Salman.”
  • That closeness has translated into a reluctance to confront Saudi Arabia over its human rights abuses.
  • “at times there has been real bipartisan frustration or even outrage with him.”
  • Trump publicly mulled the possibility he was killed by a “rogue actor” — in line with what would become the Saudi narrative as outrage grew.
  • “I have no doubt that Donald Trump did protect and save whatever part of MBS’s body,”
  • Callamard says she would expect a Biden administration, “at a minimum, not to undermine the U.S.’s own democratic processes,” as Trump did in vetoing bipartisan bills pertaining to the Khashoggi murder and the sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia that were used in the Yemen war.
  • President Biden to not “justify violations by others or suggest that the U.S. doesn’t care about violations because of its economic interests.”
  • “end US support for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, and make sure America does not check its values at the door to sell arms or buy oil.” The statement adds that Biden will “defend the right of activists, political dissidents, and journalists around the world to speak their minds freely without fear of persecution and violence.”
  • “I think there would be some international debate between those who want a very assertive change in the U.S.–Saudi relationship and those who would be more cautious,” says McInerney. “The more cautious approach would be in line with historical precedent.”
  • Saudi authorities tortured and sexually abused al Hathloul while she was in prison, her family says. On Oct 27, Hathloul began a new hunger strike in protest at authorities’ refusal to grant her a family visit in two months.
  • The only thing that allows them to ignore all the international pressure is that the White House has not talked about it, and has not given a clear message to the Saudis telling them that they don’t agree with this,” Hathloul says.
  • If Trump is re-elected, then experts see little chance of him changing tack—in fact, says Callamard, it would pose “a real test” for the resilience of the democratic institutions committed to upholding the rules-based order.
  • “Just the fact that we are filing the lawsuit here in Washington D.C. is a sign that we still have faith that there are other ways to pressure the Saudi government,”
Javier E

(1) The Middle East is getting older - by Noah Smith - 0 views

www.noahpinion.blog/...e-middle-east-is-getting-older

mideast demographics aging

shared by Javier E on 05 Nov 23 - No Cached
  • I noticed something interesting about the Israel-Gaza war that seems to have generally been overlooked: The war hasn’t shown much sign of spreading throughout the Middle East.
  • The “Arab street” that everyone feared back in the early 2000s has certainly had protests in support of the Palestinians, but they’ve been very peaceful. Saudi Arabia has said that it still wants to normalize relations with Israel, conditional on a ceasefire.
  • it’s far from the dire expectations that everyone was throwing around in the first few days of the war. In 2011, the Arab Spring spread like wildfire, igniting huge, lengthy, bloody wars in Syria and Yemen, as well as various smaller wars throughout the Middle East; the Israel-Gaza war shows no sign of repeating this history.
  • ...18 more annotations...
  • it’s also possible that population aging has something to do with it. There’s a pretty well-established literature linking youthful population bulges to elevated risk of conflict.
  • For example, Cincotta and Weber (2021) find that countries with a median age of 25 or less are much more likely to have revolutions:
  • Evidence from the 1990s reveals that countries where people aged fifteen to twenty-nine made up more than 40 percent of the adult population were twice as likely to suffer civil conflict.
  • Data collected from 1950 to 2000 found that countries where 35 percent or more of their adult populations comprised people aged fifteen to twenty-four were 150 percent more likely to experience an outbreak of civil conflict
  • , the young people crowd each other out, and this makes them mad. This effect is obviously exacerbated when the economy is stagnating. Also, simply having a lot of young men around without much to lose seems like a risk factor in and of itself.
  • Whether rich or poor, the countries in the Greater Middle East — I’ll throw Afghanistan and Pakistan into the mix, since they’ve also been a big locus of conflict — just don’t tend to experience much economic growth at all.
  • But the good news here, at least from a conflict-avoidance perspective, is that these countries are getting steadily older. There are a number of countries in the region where median age has already passed the 25-year mark:
  • how much things have changed
  • When Iran threw hundreds of thousands of soldiers against Iraq in “human wave” attacks in the 1980s, the median Iranian was just 17 years old; now, the median Iranian is in their early 30s.
  • Saudi Arabia got involved in the Yemen war, but was reluctant to send ground troops against the Houthis — possibly because the Houthis are formidable, but possibly because the Saudis have relatively few young people to send.
  • Hezbollah resides in a considerably older country than in 2006 when they attacked Israe
  • On the other hand, there are a number of other countries in the region that are still pretty young:
  • troublingly, Afghanistan, Yemen, Palestine, Iraq, and Pakistan are projected to still be below a median age of 25 a decade from now.
  • all of these countries are still aging at a steady clip — as are the countries that are already over 25. The fundamental reason is the big collapse in fertility rates in the Greater Middle East (and across the broader Muslim world) over the past few decades.
  • When Iran exploded in revolution and fought a titanic war against Iraq in the late 70s and 80s, its fertility was over 6; now it’s down to about 1.5
  • When the U.S. invaded Afghanistan in 2001, its fertility was over 7; now, it’s below 4
  • I don’t want to claim that “demography is destiny” here, and it’s all too easy to look at individual countries and tell just-so stories about how aging and fertility might have affected their conflict
  • The old Middle East, with massive crowds of angry young people thronging the streets, ready to explode into nationalist or sectarian or revolutionary violence, is steadily disappearing, being replaced by a more sedate, aging society. Given the horrific outcomes of the last few decades, it’s hard not to see that as a good thing.
julia rhodes

The protest and the predators - Opinion - Al Jazeera English - 0 views

www.aljazeera.com/...20132913478269934.html

protest obama politics drones war culture society afghanistan yemen somalia

shared by julia rhodes on 10 Feb 13 - No Cached
  • Belonging to the anti-war group Code Pink, one of the protesters tried to remind Brennan of children being killed by the drones, another held up a list of victims in Yemen, Somalia and Pakistan and another a sign saying "Drones Make Enemies".
  • The route to drone supremacy has been a surreptitious one relying sometimes on exaggerations of their "surgical accuracy" and precision
  • Brennan claimed that not a single "collateral" death had taken place as a result of drone strikes in Pakistan. This was proven untrue by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism which looked at 116 secret drone strikes during the period in which 45 or more civilians appeared to have died.
  • ...8 more annotations...
  • He responded simply by insisting that the strike against Anwar Al-Awlaki, one of two American citizens killed by drones in 2009, was justified because he was a "legitimate military target"
  • no United States citizen may arbitrarily deprived of life, liberty or property by the Government without sanction of law
  • redefinitions of what counts as a "casualty"
  • "counts all military age males in a strike zone as combatants" unless there is explicit evidence, posthumously proving them innocent.
  • Administration's assertion that the 9/11 attacks constituted a "declaration of war" by al-Qaeda against the United States and hence gives the latter the power to pursue the group regardless of which country's borders it may be located in. This is precisely the argument used by the Obama Administration to justify its attacks in the tribal areas of Pakistan, even though it has not officially declared war against the country. Its consequences are a legal limbo, where the victims of the attacks cannot avail either the international law of war under the Geneva Conventions or being non-citizens also cannot bring claims under US law.
  • he United Nation's move is replete with good intentions, and on the international legal front, any response to US overreach on drones even if it is a belated one, is welcome indeed.
  • n addition, absent on both the international front and in the domestic debate on drones inside the United States is a discussion of the moral challenges imposed by using lethal killing technology where the killers are never themselves in danger and the targets have little notice of the extent of the surveillance they may be facing or the probability of an attack.
  • then Afghanistan and now Pakistan are ravaged and hundreds of thousands of people killed in the name of eliminating terror.
maxwellokolo

Yemen conflict: At least 10,000 killed, says UN - BBC News - 0 views

www.bbc.com/...world-middle-east-38646066

shared by maxwellokolo on 17 Jan 17 - No Cached
  • maxwellokolo on 17 Jan 17
     
    At least 10,000 people have been killed in the war in Yemen between Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led coalition supporting the government, the UN says. The organisation said the death toll "underscores the need to resolve the situation" that has lasted for more than 21 months.
marleymorton

U.S. Officials Dispute Trump's Claim That Yemen Raid Uncovered Any Vital Intelligence - 0 views

www.slate.com/...id_got_vital_intelligence.html

politics us

shared by marleymorton on 02 Mar 17 - No Cached
  • marleymorton on 02 Mar 17
     
    U.S. officials, on Wednesday, again disputed Donald Trump's characterization of the January raid in Yemen as a success, as ten current government officials, briefed on the operation, told NBC News the intelligence collected during the deadly raid has so far proven neither vital nor actionable.
abbykleman

Questions Cloud Risky Raid That Killed an American Commando in Yemen - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...n-commando-raid-questions.html

shared by abbykleman on 02 Feb 17 - No Cached
  • abbykleman on 02 Feb 17
     
    The death of Chief Petty Officer William Owens came after a chain of mishaps and misjudgments that plunged the elite commandos into a ferocious 50-minute firefight that also left three troops wounded and a $75 million aircraft deliberately destroyed.
daltonramsey12

White House Defends Commando Raid on Qaeda Branch in Yemen - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...yemen-raid-trump.html

shared by daltonramsey12 on 03 Feb 17 - No Cached
  • daltonramsey12 on 03 Feb 17
     
    The assault force, which also included elite troops from the United Arab Emirates, quickly found itself under intense fire from all sides - even from female combatants who unexpectedly took up weapons from assigned fighting positions - forcing the Americans to call in strikes from helicopter gunships and attack planes as the plan for a quick intelligence-collection mission spiraled out of control.
abbykleman

Trump May Give the Pentagon More Authority to Conduct Raids - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...-target-al-qaeda-in-yemen.html

shared by abbykleman on 03 Mar 17 - No Cached
  • abbykleman on 03 Mar 17
     
    It could also leave the Pentagon to take the blame when things go wrong. But one Defense Department official pointed to comments by President Trump about the Yemen raid as a sign that military commanders would be held responsible for botched operations whether the president signed off on them or not.
Julia Blumberg

Iranian diplomat killed resisting kidnap attempt in Yemen - World News - 0 views

worldnews.nbcnews.com/...isting-kidnap-attempt-in-yemen

shared by Julia Blumberg on 18 Jan 14 - No Cached
    • Julia Blumberg
      Julia Blumberg on 18 Jan 14
       
      "An Iranian diplomat was killed Saturday when he resisted gunmen who were trying to kidnap him near the ambassador's residence, the Iranian Foreign Ministry and Yemeni security sources said."
jlessner

Turkey and Iran Put Tensions Aside, for a Day - NYTimes.com - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...-tensions-aside-for-a-day.html

turkey iran politics

shared by jlessner on 09 May 15 - No Cached
  • ISTANBUL — President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey accused Iran last month of trying to “dominate the region” through its proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, suggesting to some that Turkey was shifting toward confrontation with its neighbor and joining a Saudi-led coalition to push back against Iranian influence across the Middle East.
  • Yet it was all smiles and handshakes in Tehran on Tuesday, as Mr. Erdogan was welcomed by Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, at the start of a one-day visit that had been long planned but was put in jeopardy after some Iranian lawmakers called for it to be canceled after Mr. Erdogan’s comments.
  • In a joint news conference broadcast live on state television, Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Rouhani pledged to work together to calm regional crises. “The region is burning in a fire,” Mr. Erdogan said. “So far, more than 300,000 were killed in Syria. All were Muslim. We do not know who is killing whom. We have to get united and block the killing and bloodshed.”
  • ...1 more annotation...
  • The Iranian president called for an end to the Saudi-led airstrike campaign in Yemen — Tuesday was its 13th day — and for all Middle Eastern countries to “fight terrorism and extremism” together.
Javier E

So Wrong for So Long | Foreign Policy - 0 views

foreignpolicy.com/...for-so-long-iraq-war-iran-deal

neoconservatism foreign policy mideast

shared by Javier E on 24 Aug 15 - No Cached
  • Getting Iraq wrong wasn’t just an unfortunate miscalculation, it happened because their theories of world politics were dubious and their understanding of how the world works was goofy. When your strategic software is riddled with bugs, you should expect a lot of error messages.When your strategic software is riddled with bugs, you should expect a lot of error messages.
  • For starters, neoconservatives think balance-of-power politics doesn’t really work in international affairs and that states are strongly inclined to “bandwagon” instead. In other words, they think weaker states are easy to bully and never stand up to powerful adversaries. Their faulty logic follows that other states will do whatever Washington dictates provided we demonstrate how strong and tough we are.
  • What happened, alas, was that the various states we were threatening didn’t jump on our bandwagon. Instead, they balanced and then took steps to make sure we faced significant and growing resistance. In particular, Syria and Iran (the next two states on the neocons’ target list), cooperated even further with each other and helped aid the anti-American insurgency in Iraq itself.
  • ...15 more annotations...
  • Today, of course, opposition to the Iran deal reflects a similar belief that forceful resolve would enable Washington to dictate whatever terms it wants. As I’ve written before, this idea is the myth of a “better deal.” Because neocons assume states are attracted to strength and easy to intimidate, they think rejecting the deal, ratcheting up sanctions, and threatening war will cause Iran’s government to finally cave in and dismantle its entire enrichment program.
  • On the contrary, walking away from the deal will stiffen Iran’s resolve, strengthen its hard-liners, increase its interest in perhaps actually acquiring a nuclear weapon someday, and cause the other members of the P5+1 to part company with the United States.
  • The neoconservative worldview also exaggerates the efficacy of military force and downplays the value of diplomacy.
  • In reality, military force is a crude instrument whose effects are hard to foresee and one which almost always produces unintended consequences (see under: Libya, Yemen, Somalia, Pakistan, etc.)
  • Moreover, neocons believe military force is a supple tool that can be turned on and off like a spigot.
  • Once forces are committed, the military brass will demand the chance to win a clear victory, and politicians will worry about the nation’s prestige and their own political fortunes. The conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, and Somalia should remind us that it’s a lot easier to get into wars than it is to get out of them
  • Third, the neoconservatives have a simplistic and ahistorical view of democracy itself. They claim their main goal is spreading freedom and democracy (except for Palestinians, of course), but they have no theory to explain how this will happen or how toppling a foreign government with military force will magically cause democracy to emerge
  • In fact, the development of liberal democracy was a long, contentious, imperfect, and often violent process in Western Europe and North America
  • Fourth, as befits a group of armchair ideologues whose primary goal has been winning power inside the Beltway, neoconservatives are often surprisingly ignorant about the actual conditions of the countries whose politics and society they want to transform.
  • In addition to flawed theories, in short, the neoconservative worldview also depends on an inaccurate reading of the facts on the ground.
  • Last but not least, the neoconservatives’ prescriptions for U.S. foreign policy are perennially distorted by a strong attachment to Israel,
  • But no two states have identical interests all the time, and when the interests of two countries conflict, people who feel strongly about both are forced to decide which of these feelings is going to take priority.
  • some proponents of the deal have pointed out — correctly — that some opponents don’t like the deal because they think it is bad for Israel and because the Netanyahu government is dead set against it. As one might expect, pointing out these obvious facts has led some opponents of the deal to accuse proponents (including President Obama) of anti-Semitism
  • Instead of being a serious criticism, this familiar smear is really just a way to change the subject and to put proponents of the deal on the defensive for pointing out the obvious
  • The fact that the neoconservatives, AIPAC, the Conference of Presidents, and other groups in the Israel lobby were wrong about the Iraq War does not by itself mean that they are necessarily wrong about the Iran deal. But when you examine their basic views on world politics and their consistent approach to U.S. Middle East policy, it becomes clear this is not a coincidence at all
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