Macron warned against any policy of regime change, noting just how disastrous this has been in the past. It is certainly hard to imagine anything that would be more likely to unite and galvanise Russians against the West. In the process, it would ruin any chances that this war will actually lead to a different Russia. There is, to be sure, a thick vein of imperialism in Russian culture. Yet there is also a clear lack of enthusiasm for Putin’s latest adventure, and the chance that defeat in Ukraine could help force Russians to come to terms with their new, less exalted place in the world, which would be broadly comparable to the effect of the Suez debacle on the UK.
Left to its own devices, a post-defeat Russia is more likely to generate a new leader who is a pragmatist: not a democrat, but not a militarist imperialist, either. Macron is right that the West could yet derail any hopes of a more positive transition if it is not careful.