The Possibilities of LIHTC Projects in a City with Long Term Population Loss: A Counterfactual Analysis of Post- Katr... - 2 views

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  #1 Metropolitan Institute on 04 Jan 12

   

  In this paper, shrinking cities refer to cities that have experienced decades-long sustained population loss and, in the United States, those that continued to lose population through the 2000s. Of the largest 50 U.S. cities, 12 lost population in consecutive decades from 1980 to 2000 (Beauregard, 2009). Population loss weakens property demand, resulting in vacant parcels and blight. At the single lot and block level, art, agriculture and adaptive reuse-whether permanent or ephemeral-demonstrate that community members creatively respond to their circumstances and new opportunities (Oswalt, 2006). In shrinking cities, however, parcel level interventions have been insufficient to alleviate all problems associated with abandoned property, and city agencies must still manage vacant land with limited resources in a weak real estate market (Dewar, 2006).

  
  

  Abandoned property adversely impacts residents' life quality, and residents in neighborhoods with lower incomes and more rentals experience worse effects. No federal programs have been designed to specifically address citywide depopulation, but local and state governments use varied resources to manage vacant land and stimulate redevelopment. A large portion of federal aid comes in the form of subsidies for housing production, and as a result, federal housing programs become a key part of state and local government efforts to redevelop depopulated neighborhoods. Researchers have also investigated the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program as a source of neighborhood reinvestment (Deng, forthcoming). Drawing on the findings that the structure and implementation of vacant land management strategies impact how vacant land is reused, even when comparing cities that face similarly weak real estate markets (Dewar, 2006), this paper uses a counterfactual analysis to lay out possible alternative scenarios if similar public investment was deployed in different ways.

  
  

  This paper analyzes possible outcomes from the 2006-2010 LIHTC projects in New Orleans. Most projects are large, multi-family, single-site developments and are concentrated in specific areas. We examine the following four scenarios. 1) The vacant lots or blighted property that would be occupied if the same number of units were developed in the neighborhoods that surrounds the tax credit projects in the form of the detached singles and doubles that characterize New Orleans neighborhoods. 2) The number of lots that could have been developed in scattered site, infill projects with the same total investment. 3) The impact of new units on anticipated housing demand with attention to the location of new housing in relationship to comparably priced housing. 4) A comparable investment in a small landlord oriented program for the rental housing market. The calculations include total project subsidies from any public source.

  
  

  New Orleans is a useful city for a counterfactual analysis. In the period prior to Katrina, 65 of New Orleans' 72 neighborhoods had lost population. The total population had declined from a peak of over 627,000 in 1960 to an estimated 452,000 in 2005. The population fell dramatically to 343,829 in 2010 as a result of the 2005 flooding. The subsequent rebuilding shifted development patterns to reflect anticipated demand.

  
  

  More attention to the impacts of federal policies and programs in shrinking cities is relevant to planning practice and theory. Planning scholars and practitioners alike celebrate community based responses to disinvestment but there are few examples to show how these transcend neighborhood scale improvements. A counterfactual analysis proposes different opportunities and envisions alternatives to existing programs. It also helps illuminate the limits of current programs and raises questions about what policies would help stabilize cities with sustained population loss as well as the neighborhoods within them.

  
  
  Riekes Trivers, Ian and Renia Ehrenfeucht.  "The Possibilities of LIHTC Projects in a City with Long Term Population Loss: A Counterfactual Analysis of Post- Katrina New Orleans."  Paper to be presented at the annual conference for the Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning, Salt Lake City, Utah, October 13-16, 2011

   

  <div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">In this paper, shrinking cities refer to cities that have experienced decades-long sustained population loss and, in the United States, those that continued to lose population through the 2000s. Of the largest 50 U.S. cities, 12 lost population in consecutive decades from 1980 to 2000 (Beauregard, 2009). Population loss weakens property demand, resulting in vacant parcels and blight. At the single lot and block level, art, agriculture and adaptive reuse-whether permanent or ephemeral-demonstrate that community members creatively respond to their circumstances and new opportunities (Oswalt, 2006). In shrinking cities, however, parcel level interventions have been insufficient to alleviate all problems associated with abandoned property, and city agencies must still manage vacant land with limited resources in a weak real estate market (Dewar, 2006). <p></p> <br /> <p class="Default"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Abandoned property adversely impacts residents' life quality, and residents in neighborhoods with lower incomes and more rentals experience worse effects. No federal programs have been designed to specifically address citywide depopulation, but local and state governments use varied resources to manage vacant land and stimulate redevelopment. A large portion of federal aid comes in the form of subsidies for housing production, and as a result, federal housing programs become a key part of state and local government efforts to redevelop depopulated neighborhoods. Researchers have also investigated the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program as a source of neighborhood reinvestment (Deng, forthcoming). Drawing on the findings that the structure and implementation of vacant land management strategies impact how vacant land is reused, even when comparing cities that face similarly weak real estate markets (Dewar, 2006), this paper uses a counterfactual analysis to lay out possible alternative scenarios if similar public investment was deployed in different ways. </span></p> <br /> <p class="Default"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">This paper analyzes possible outcomes from the 2006-2010 LIHTC projects in New Orleans. Most projects are large, multi-family, single-site developments and are concentrated in specific areas. We examine the following four scenarios. 1) The vacant lots or blighted property that would be occupied if the same number of units were developed in the neighborhoods that surrounds the tax credit projects in the form of the detached singles and doubles that characterize New Orleans neighborhoods. 2) The number of lots that could have been developed in scattered site, infill projects with the same total investment. 3) The impact of new units on anticipated housing demand with attention to the location of new housing in relationship to comparably priced housing. 4) A comparable investment in a small landlord oriented program for the rental housing market. The calculations include total project subsidies from any public source. </span></p> <br /> <p class="Default"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">New Orleans is a useful city for a counterfactual analysis. In the period prior to Katrina, 65 of New Orleans' 72 neighborhoods had lost population. The total population had declined from a peak of over 627,000 in 1960 to an estimated 452,000 in 2005. The population fell dramatically to 343,829 in 2010 as a result of the 2005 flooding. The subsequent rebuilding shifted development patterns to reflect anticipated demand. </span></p> <br /> <p class="Default"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">More attention to the impacts of federal policies and programs in shrinking cities is relevant to planning practice and theory. Planning scholars and practitioners alike celebrate community based responses to disinvestment but there are few examples to show how these transcend neighborhood scale improvements. A counterfactual analysis proposes different opportunities and envisions alternatives to existing programs. It also helps illuminate the limits of current programs and raises questions about what policies would help stabilize cities with sustained population loss as well as the neighborhoods within them.</span></p> <br /> <br /> Riekes Trivers, Ian and Renia Ehrenfeucht.<span>  </span>"The Possibilities of LIHTC Projects in a City with Long Term Population Loss: A Counterfactual Analysis of Post- Katrina New Orleans."<span>  </span>Paper to be presented at the annual conference for the Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning, Salt Lake City, Utah, <strong><span style="font-weight: normal;">October 13-16, 2011</span></strong></div>

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